Hamas controls Gaza, uncertain future for peace plan

After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect on Sunday (January 19), Hamas officials have begun overseeing the clearing of rubble in the devastated communities. Hamas soldiers guard aid convoys on dusty roads in Gaza, while Hamas police officers in blue uniforms patrol the city streets, sending a clear message that Hamas remains in power.

According to Israeli officials, Hamas soldiers held a parade on Sunday to celebrate the ceasefire, proudly displaying their strength to cheering crowds, in an attempt to exaggerate the capabilities of this radical Palestinian organization.

In the days following the ceasefire, the Hamas authorities in Gaza have swiftly taken action to restore social order and public services in certain areas.

Reuters interviewed over a dozen residents, officials, diplomats, and security experts, who all indicated that Hamas still firmly controls Gaza, posing a challenge to achieving a sustainable ceasefire.

They mentioned that Hamas not only controls Gaza’s security forces but also manages various ministries and government institutions, paying salaries to employees and coordinating with international non-governmental organizations.

Ismail Al-Thawabta, the media officer for the Hamas-led Gaza government, stated that approximately 700 police officers are protecting aid convoys, and since Sunday, no trucks have been robbed, a stark contrast to the widespread looting of food by criminal gangs during the conflict.

“We aim to prevent any form of security vacuum,” he said.

A United Nations spokesperson in Geneva confirmed on Tuesday that there have been no reports of looting or attacks on rescue workers since the ceasefire took effect.

In the weeks leading up to the ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes had targeted low-level Hamas administrative personnel in an apparent effort to weaken Hamas’s control over the government.

Prior to that, Israel had eliminated top Hamas leaders, including political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the masterminds behind the October 7 terror attack, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.

Despite suffering losses, Al-Thawabta mentioned that the Hamas-led government is continuing operations, with 18,000 employees providing daily services to citizens.

The Hamas-run municipal authorities began clearing rubble from some roads since Sunday to allow for vehicle passage, while workers have been repairing pipelines and infrastructure to restore the water supply in residential areas.

On Tuesday, dozens of heavy trucks began transporting debris from demolished buildings to the outskirts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently opposed Hamas playing any role, expressing distrust towards the current Palestinian Authority and not providing a clear vision for Gaza’s post-war future.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group pointed out how Hamas’s firm control over Gaza presents a dilemma for Israel.

Hiltermann stated, “Israel faces a choice: to continue fighting in the future, which has not been effective in the past 15 months, or to allow the Palestinian Authority to take control of Gaza with Hamas’s consent.”

He added that assessing Hamas’s military capabilities is difficult as their rocket arsenal remains hidden, and many well-trained fighters may have been killed. Despite this, Hamas remains the dominant armed group in Gaza, with no discussion about the Palestinian Authority taking over Gaza without Hamas’s approval.

While senior Hamas officials have expressed support for forming a unity government, Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority and a long-time adversary of Hamas, has not agreed to this.

According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel is to withdraw troops from central Gaza and allow Palestinians to return to the northern areas, a phase that will last for six weeks. During this period, some hostages will be released.

Negotiations for the second phase are expected to commence on the 16th day of the ceasefire, focusing on a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Reconstruction efforts are estimated to cost billions of dollars and span several years, starting only in the third and final phase.

This agreement has stirred controversy in Israel. While people celebrated the release of three hostages on Sunday, many Israelis hope to see the destruction of Hamas’s military capabilities. Hamas had launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages.

Even before the ceasefire took effect, members of Netanyahu’s cabinet expressed support for resuming hostilities once the hostages returned home, seeking to overthrow the Hamas regime.

Three far-right ministers resigned in protest of the ceasefire.

Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated on Sunday, “If Hamas continues to rule the Gaza Strip, there is no peaceful, stable, and secure future for both sides.”

Hamas military spokesperson Abu Ubaida told Reuters that the radical organization would adhere to the ceasefire agreement and urged Israel to do the same.

On Sunday, as Hamas security forces paraded on the streets, some residents felt proud. Factory worker Salah Abu Rezik remarked, “Tell me a country that could withstand Israel’s war machine for 15 months.”

He predicted that Hamas would rebuild, emphasizing that Hamas is an idea that cannot be eliminated.

There are also individuals expressing anger over the damage caused by Hamas’s attack on October 7.

Civil engineer Ameen in Khan Younis, Gaza City, who lost everything, including his house, hotel, and restaurant, expressed disillusionment, stating, “We used to have homes, businesses, and a livelihood, and now we have nothing. What kind of victory is this? After the war, Hamas must not be allowed to rule Gaza alone.”

While the Palestinian Authority claims to be the only entity qualified to manage post-war Gaza, investigations indicate that the PA lacks a presence and substantial support in the Gaza Strip.

Since Hamas expelled the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority following a brief civil war in 2007, Hamas has suppressed opposition in the Gaza Strip. With financial support from Iran, Hamas established a formidable security apparatus and military organization.

Due to its extensive tunnel network, Hamas’s military capabilities are hard to evaluate, although Israel claims to have destroyed a significant portion of these tunnels during the conflict.

Israel had proposed preliminary ideas for post-war Gaza, such as integrating local tribal leaders (some of whom were immediately assassinated by Hamas) or utilizing Gaza civilian society members unaffiliated with radical organizations to manage the enclave, but these ideas have yet to gain traction.

Both the United Arab Emirates and the Trump administration in the United States emphasize that Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by many Western countries, should not continue to rule Gaza post-conflict.

Some diplomats have been discussing international peacekeeping models, including one where the UAE, the US, and other countries collectively oversee governance, security, and reconstruction in Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority can assume control.

Another model, supported by Egypt, involves a joint committee consisting of Fatah and Hamas under the oversight of the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza.

Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer currently working at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies in Tel Aviv, viewed Hamas’s public expression of willingness to discuss forming a unity government as purely superficial. He noted, “As long as they orchestrate behind the scenes, they won’t care whether there is a committee as a facade.”

Shortly after his inauguration, President Trump expressed skepticism about the execution of all three phases of the Egypt-Israel ceasefire agreement, without providing further explanation.

(Report referenced and adapted from Reuters.)