The employment situation for recent college graduates in China is becoming increasingly dire, with less than half of them receiving informal job offers as of mid-April this year. Experts indicate that China’s economy is expected to slow down in the future, leading to a more severe unemployment situation for graduates and diminishing upward mobility for ordinary people.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the employment rate of recent college graduates in mainland China has been deteriorating. According to the “2024 College Student Employment Power Survey Report” released last month by Zhaopin Recruitment, only 48% of recent graduates received informal job offers, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Simultaneously, the proportion of recent graduates opting for “delayed employment” and “freelancing” has increased from 18.9% and 13.2% respectively last year to 19.1% and 13.7% this year.
The Chinese authorities avoid using the term “unemployment” and often substitute it with phrases like “delayed employment,” “light employment,” “flexible employment,” and “self-employed economy” to avoid negative connotations. “Delayed employment” includes “continuing education after graduation” and “postponed employment.”
In June last year, the unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 24 in urban China reached a record high of 21.3%. Experts predicted at that time that the unemployment rate for recent graduates in 2023 would continue to rise. Subsequently, in August last year, the Chinese government stopped releasing this data. The employment data released in January this year no longer includes full-time enrolled students.
With the authorities cracking down on private enterprises such as technology, real estate, and tutoring industries, the profitability of these companies has worsened, leading to reduced recruitment. These sectors have traditionally been the main sources of employment for young graduates.
Recent graduates are increasingly hesitant to work for private enterprises. According to Zhaopin Recruitment data, 51% of graduates believe “stability is most important,” with the proportion of graduates wanting to work in state-owned enterprises rising for five consecutive years, from 36% in 2020 to 47.7% this year, while those preferring private enterprises have declined for five straight years, from 25.1% in 2020 to 12.5% this year.
90% of graduates are not fixated on finding a “good job” but rather on finding any job. The proportion of graduates signing contracts in third-tier cities and below is on the rise, accounting for a quarter of the total contracts.
Ms. Bai, residing in a first-tier city, mentioned that she graduated in 2021 and after working for some time, resigned in 2023 but found it increasingly challenging to secure a job.
“Many graduates from prestigious universities are struggling to find jobs. I have a relative who graduated this year with a finance degree from a prestigious university and has yet to find a job, just staying at home. She is lost, and her family is worried, saying there is nothing they can do.”
“I know someone who has been out of work for five years and is still tutoring English or helping write theses without any formal employment. Many are staying at home preparing to take the postgraduate entrance exam because now, to secure a position, many job postings require a master’s degree, which has led to a surge in postgraduate exam candidates.”
Ms. Bai noted a new trend called “downward pursuing of postgraduate studies,” where previously, individuals aimed to attend better graduate schools than undergraduate ones. Now, many undergraduates from prestigious universities are applying to ordinary undergraduate programs. The focus is no longer on the school’s reputation but rather on high interview scores at prestigious universities as scoring high in interviews improves chances of acceptance.
Professor Sun Guoxiang from the Department of International Affairs and Business at South China University expressed that this year China has reached a record number of university graduates at 11.79 million. Calculating based on a 47.8% employment rate, it means there are between 6 to 7 million unemployed graduates.
“Li Keqiang once mentioned that for every 1 percentage point increase in China’s GDP, it could create 1 million job positions. To achieve full employment for graduates, GDP growth would need to reach 11.79%. However, according to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast, China’s economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming years, unable to meet the employment demands of these graduates.”
Economist Davy J. Wong from the United States stated that China has always had a high unemployment rate for recent graduates but with only 47.8% receiving job offers, the unemployment rate is alarmingly high.
Wong analyzed that lately, Chinese companies’ profitability has been decreasing, the export situation is not ideal, and overall aspects of domestic consumption, investment, and real estate are negative. The authorities have not implemented tax reductions or increased benefits, exacerbating the employment issues for college students.
“In the future, the unemployment situation for recent graduates will become more severe, forcing them to settle for mismatched jobs. It will become increasingly common for resources to be highly monopolized, leading to limited upward mobility for ordinary people and a significant intensification of class stratification.”
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always viewed the issue of youth unemployment as a political matter, placing it at a “national security” level.
Concerned about potential emulation of historical events, the CCP removed a section from middle school language textbooks in 2019 featuring Chen Sheng’s family. Chen Sheng and Wu Guang initiated China’s first peasant uprising and coined the slogan “why should we serve kings and nobles.”
On June 26, Premier Li Keqiang specifically mentioned during a State Council meeting, “Strengthen employment services for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers.”
Ms. Bai stated that the current situation feels like slowly boiling frogs, where everyone perceives life as terrible. There is a popular online saying that young people have only four options: to toil hard at work, completely lay low, emigrate to seek opportunities, or resort to extreme measures.
“I knew an engineering student who, during the second attempt at the entrance exam, felt overwhelmed and wanted to end his life. He expressed a desire to jump into a river. We tried to persuade him for a long time, and eventually, he didn’t jump. But his mindset had already shattered, and in the final exam, he handed in blank papers, writing legendary verses about the bandit Zhang Xianzhong, and so on.”
Ms. Bai mentioned that during the white paper movement, Shanghai and Wuhan were severely affected. Shanghai had more vocal protests, while Wuhan saw violent clashes at neighborhood committees, with residents removing door plates and dismantling barriers due to having suffered calamity before.
Sun Guoxiang commented that the autocratic CCP is primarily concerned with so-called social stability, as unemployment-induced economic pressure, mental stress, and societal discontent can lead to increased crime rates, social unrest, and some youths turning to extremism, posing the most significant challenge to the CCP’s stability maintenance.
“Furthermore, unemployment contributes to brain drain and decreased innovation capacity, eventually diminishing China’s global competitiveness and raising concerns about sustainable economic development.”
Despite facing such high unemployment rates, the number of people taking the college entrance examination (GAOKAO) continues to rise each year, with 13.42 million people registering in 2024, surpassing the 13 million mark for the first time since the resumption of GAOKAO in 1977.
Ms. Bai highlighted that without a university degree, it becomes even harder to find a job. Hence, the option of repeating a year of studies is still available. If you are a first-time candidate, you may be competing with others who have taken the exam multiple times.
Sun Guoxiang mentioned that despite the high unemployment rate among recent graduates, the GAOKAO remains a crucial pathway for changing destinies, especially in rural and underdeveloped regions. The CCP’s unique household registration system makes the GAOKAO an essential way for rural populations to alter their residence registration.
“For mainland China, the employment opportunities without a higher education degree are even more minimal. Even if there are job openings, they are likely to be low-paying, lacking in stability, making it impossible for one to truly improve their circumstances.”