A survey shows that China’s economic growth rate in 2024 may fall below the government’s target of 5%. The economic slowdown in Guangdong Province, China’s largest economic province, has worsened, with a growth rate of 3.2% for the full year of 2024, failing to meet growth targets for the second consecutive year.
According to a survey by Agence France-Presse, China’s economic growth rate in 2024 was 4.9%, a further slowdown from 5.2% in 2023.
Francois Chimits, a senior economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany, expressed some skepticism towards this figure, stating that the numbers are often subject to strategic adjustments to reflect internal targets.
On January 15, the Governor of Guangdong Province, Wang Weizhong, mentioned in his government work report that the province’s GDP in the past year amounted to 14 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the top province in China for 36 consecutive years. The report did not provide specific GDP growth figures.
Yeo Hong, a senior researcher at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, estimated in an interview with the Lianhe Zaobao that Guangdong’s economic growth rate in 2024 is expected to be around 3.2%, far below the 5% target.
He analyzed that Guangdong’s lack of public data is likely to divert attention from the slower economic growth pace. The slowdown in Guangdong’s economy will inevitably affect China’s overall annual growth target of around 5%, but it is crucial to pay attention to the data from other western and eastern provinces to fully grasp the entire picture of China’s economy.
This marks the second consecutive year that Guangdong has failed to achieve its economic growth target. In 2023, Guangdong fell short of its target of over 5%, with actual growth only reaching 4.8%.
Yeo Hong commented, “China has been trying for years to shift from export-driven growth to domestic demand and investment-driven growth, but with limited success. The situation in Guangdong illustrates that when domestic demand fails to stimulate effectively, achieving expected growth targets becomes challenging.”