On Sunday, February 23, the European Union’s largest economy, Germany, held its general election. Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking re-election but faces significant challenges. Pre-election polls indicate that this election will bring about a new Chancellor and a new governing coalition in Germany.
Germany, along with France, is known as the “twin engine” of the European economy. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany has become the second largest weapons supplier to Ukraine after the United States.
As a result, the German election has garnered significant attention across Europe. EU allies are cautiously hopeful that this election will usher in a more united government capable of advancing policies within Germany and the EU.
The election was moved up by seven months due to the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition in November last year, stemming from disagreements on how to stimulate the country’s stagnant economy over the past two years.
At least 59.2 million people were eligible to vote in this election. Polling stations opened at 8 am local time on Sunday and closed at 6 pm. Vote counting began immediately after the closure of polling stations, with exit polls expected to be announced shortly thereafter.
This election will determine the allocation of 630 seats in the Federal Parliament, after which a new Chancellor will be elected by members of the Federal Parliament.
The four main contenders for the position of Chancellor in this election are the incumbent Chancellor of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), Olaf Scholz; Friedrich Merz of the Union Party (CDU/CSU); Robert Habeck, the current Vice Chancellor and member of the Green Party; and Alice Weidel of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Twenty-nine political parties are participating in this year’s election, but only five to eight parties are projected to secure enough votes to win parliamentary seats. In most cases, parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to secure seats.
One of the major focuses of this election is the issue of irregular immigration. Since the implementation of the “welcome refugees” culture during the European migration crisis in 2015, public sentiment in Germany has undergone a significant shift, becoming more stringent towards immigration. Campaigning has revolved around the idea of “uncontrolled irregular migration,” leading to fierce debates among the parties.
This has resulted in a rise in support for the anti-immigration right-wing party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is expected to achieve its best result in this election.
According to the latest pre-election polls released by Wahlrecht.de/RND on Saturday, the AfD ranks second with a support rate of 20.6%, behind the Union Party (CDU/CSU) in first place. The support rate for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by incumbent Chancellor Scholz is 15.5%, placing it in third.
Economic issues are also a focal point of the election. The German economy has been stagnant for the past two years, with many believing that significant reforms are necessary.
The Federal Statistical Office of Germany stated in January of this year that following a 0.3% contraction in GDP in 2023, the economy shrank for the second consecutive year in 2024, with a decline of 0.2%.
Pre-election polls suggest that the conservative party led by CDU/CSU candidate Merz is likely to come back to power. Germany’s electoral system rarely allows any party to secure an absolute majority of seats.
Merz’s Union Party (CDU/CSU) has consistently led in the polls. According to the latest pre-election polls released by Wahlrecht.de/RND on Saturday, the Union Party received a support rate of 29.7%. It is also unlikely to win a majority of seats in the election on Sunday, which would compel them to seek coalition partners.
The process of forming a new government does not have a formal referee or clear time limit. Merz has stated that if he wins, he hopes to form a new government by mid-April.
Until a new Chancellor is elected by the Federal Parliament, the current government led by Chancellor Scholz will continue to govern in a caretaker capacity.