Less than three weeks away from the US election day, former President Trump and current Vice President Harris are engaged in a fierce competition. Polls show a close race between the two candidates in battleground states. However, in recent days, online prediction markets have started to favor Trump, with billionaire investors expressing strong belief in his victory.
Polymarket, a leading political prediction market based overseas with support from Silicon Valley’s Peter Thiel, has seen fluctuations in prediction odds throughout the election period. An anonymous trader named Fredi9999 has attracted attention by placing over $8.7 million worth of bets on Trump winning the election on Polymarket, indicating a strong confidence in Trump’s chances.
Being a cryptocurrency-based prediction market outside US regulators’ jurisdiction, Polymarket’s users remain anonymous. Fredi9999’s identity remains mysterious, with little information available aside from joining the platform in June 2024. As of Wednesday, Fredi9999 continued to increase betting positions, including millions of shares on Trump winning the popular vote and key swing states like Pennsylvania.
The trader’s motives for such significant bets on the US presidential election remain unclear. Laura Beers, a history professor and political betting expert, points out that anonymous traders may use political betting as a hedge against potential losses, particularly if their business interests could be impacted by the election outcome.
Questions linger over whether Fredi9999’s large bets aim to influence election sentiment or simply profit from market movements. With Polymarket odds increasingly favoring Trump since early October, some suggest a concerted effort to boost Trump’s image or spur support for Harris among concerned backers.
Economist Rajiv Sethi notes that Fredi9999’s bets have shifted the market towards Trump, potentially indicating a broader push by individual or corporate actors seeking to sway public sentiment through financial means.
Amid the market fluctuations, other Republican figures, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, elicit positive sentiments from Fredi9999 despite not being active in the presidential race. Despite Trump’s slight lead in the prediction market, polls still suggest a narrow edge for Harris nationally, with battleground states like Pennsylvania favoring Trump marginally.
Investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently voiced strong market confidence in Trump’s victory. While acknowledging the market sentiment, Druckenmiller remains neutral on his personal voting preference between Harris and Trump, highlighting shared economic ideologies between the candidates.
In a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg News, Trump discussed various economic policies, including imposing tariffs on Chinese products and urging companies to create jobs domestically. He emphasized the importance of the US dollar’s status as a reserve currency and signaled readiness to impose tariffs on trade partners unwilling to use the dollar for settlements.
As the US election approaches, differing economic forecasts under Trump and Harris reveal a public divided on economic policy preferences. Bankrate’s surveys indicate varying perceptions on which candidate would better handle personal finances, inflation, and economic growth.
Harvard CAPS/Harris polling data further illustrates the partisan divide among voters regarding the country’s economic direction, reinforcing the significance of economic issues in shaping electoral decisions. With inflation topping concerns for many voters, the ongoing economic discourse continues to influence voter sentiments as the election nears.