In the recent parliamentary elections in France, the left-wing alliance emerged as the leader in terms of parliamentary seats, followed by the centrist ruling party, with the far-right positioned third. However, no single party secured an absolute majority, plunging France into unprecedented uncertainty.
Following the final vote count in all districts, the left-wing alliance “New People’s Front” (NFP) obtained 182 seats, while Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition “Together” secured 168 seats. The right-wing “National Rally” led by Marine Le Pen and its allies won 143 seats.
During the initial rounds of the elections, the far-right alliance surged ahead, initially believing they would easily secure a majority in parliament. This outcome marked a significant success in the strategic coordination against the National Rally. Under this strategy, left-wing and centrist parties strategically withdrew their candidates who were lagging behind in the second round of voting.
Despite ranking third, the National Rally saw a substantial increase in its parliamentary seats. With a total of 577 seats in the lower house of the French parliament, the threshold for a majority is set at 289 seats. The post-election scenario where no single party or alliance has secured a majority indicates the likelihood of a hung parliament.
Currently, there is no clear indication of who the future Prime Minister will be. Macron has stated that he will wait for discussions among all parties before deciding on the next steps. Later this week, Macron will attend the NATO summit in Washington. Newly elected members are set to enter parliament starting next Monday, with their first session scheduled to begin on July 18th.
A hung parliament, also known as a minority government or balanced parliament, refers to a situation in parliamentary systems where no single party or alliance attains an absolute majority. While not uncommon in other European countries, this is uncharted territory for modern France. Forming an unstable coalition government poses challenges for countries without precedent in such situations.
In this election, the three major factions stand equally without any one political group commanding a majority. Typically, the party securing the most seats has the priority to form a coalition government or opt for a minority rule. However, in France, there isn’t a clear requirement for Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the largest party.
The National Assembly is the most crucial chamber of the French parliament among its two houses. Unlike the conservative-dominated Senate, the National Assembly holds the final decision-making power in the legislative process.
This situation necessitates bipartisan consensus among legislators on government positions and legislative matters. However, the French political landscape has been rife with discord, with the three major factions significantly divided on tax policies, immigration, and Middle East strategies, making achieving consensus particularly challenging.
This implies that Macron’s centrist allies may struggle to implement their pro-business policies, including commitments to thoroughly reform unemployment benefits, thereby increasing the difficulty in budget approval.
Macron may seek to reach agreements with moderate left-wing factions to form a coalition government. Nevertheless, such negotiations could prove to be challenging as France lacks a tradition for this.
Even if an agreement is reached, it may take the form of a loose, informal alliance, making cooperation potentially fragile.
Macron has stated that he will not collaborate with the far-left party “France Unbowed,” but may extend his hand to the Socialist Party (PS) and the Green Party (EELV). However, they may refuse the offer.
Last week, Macron’s government temporarily suspended a decree reducing workers’ entitlement to unemployment benefits, which was seen as a gesture to appease the left-wing factions.
If a political agreement cannot be reached, Macron could appoint a technocratic government unrelated to any party. Comprised of bureaucratic experts, such a government would solely handle the day-to-day affairs needed to sustain France without engaging in structural reforms.
It is currently unclear if the left-wing bloc will support this proposal, as it would still require parliamentary backing.
Leader of “France Unbowed,” Jean-Luc Melenchon, has suggested that the new Prime Minister should come from the New People’s Front. However, disagreements exist among the various parties within the group on who would be the suitable Prime Minister.
In recent months, the left-wing factions have been divided, especially following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year.
“France Unbowed” has faced sharp criticism from other moderate left-wing parties for its stance during the conflict. The hard-left leaders staunchly condemned the war actions of Israel against Hamas, accusing Israel of perpetrating genocide against Palestinians. They have been accused of anti-Semitism, a charge they firmly deny.
During the EU elections last month, the Socialist Party independently contested and garnered about 14% of votes, while “France Unbowed” received less than 10%, and the Green Party received 5.5%.
However, Macron’s call for snap legislative elections prompted swift consensus among left-wing leaders to form the new alliance “New People’s Front” (NFP).
They jointly committed to raising the minimum wage from 1,400 euros to 1,600 euros, rolling back Macron’s pension reform that aimed to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, and freezing basic food and energy prices. These policies have raised concerns in financial markets.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation on Monday (July 8). He indicated his willingness to temporarily assume the Prime Minister’s role during the upcoming Paris Olympics if necessary. The interim government will manage current affairs until further political negotiations take place.
Macron’s office stated that he would “wait for the new National Assembly to organize” before making any decisions on the new government.
There is no specific timeline for when Macron must appoint a Prime Minister, nor is there a clear mandate requiring him to select a Prime Minister from the largest party in parliament.
Macron’s term will last until 2027, with him stating his intention not to resign before the end of his term. Nevertheless, with no majority secured, Macron’s power has been weakened by the election, making it challenging to implement his plans. This could potentially diminish France’s influence in the EU and other regions.
According to the French Constitution, Macron retains some powers in foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, is responsible for negotiating and approving international treaties, and serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, holding the nuclear codes.
The new Prime Minister may either be unable or unwilling to challenge Macron’s defense and foreign policy authority, focusing instead on domestic politics. The Prime Minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government, and puts forth legislation.