Taiwanese meteorologist Wu Derong stated today (February 18) that Taiwan is expecting two cold air masses to arrive successively, urging people to stay warm as the end of February will bring warm weather with foggy conditions.
Wu Derong, an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan, pointed out in a column for the Meteorological Applications Promotion Foundation that according to the latest European (ECMWF) model simulation as of 8 p.m. on the 18th, moisture is gradually increasing on the eastern side of Taiwan from today to the early morning of the 19th, with localized brief showers expected in the northern coast, eastern side of Greater Taipei, and eastern region, while the western region will be partly cloudy. Due to the influence of a “continental cold air mass,” northern Taiwan will experience colder temperatures, with cool mornings and evenings in central and southern regions.
Tonight and into the morning of the 19th, Wu Derong mentioned that temperatures in some low-lying areas will drop to below 10 degrees, with a chance of reaching 14 degrees at the Taipei monitoring station (the benchmark for the continental cold air mass); thus, it is important to stay warm. The temperatures across different regions of Taiwan today are expected to range between 11 and 17 degrees in the north, 12 to 24 degrees in the central region, 14 to 26 degrees in the south, and 11 to 23 degrees in the east.
Regarding the weather outlook, Wu Derong stated that according to the latest European model simulation, starting from the daytime of the 19th until the 20th, the cold air mass will gradually weaken with temperatures increasing each day. On the 19th, there will be localized brief showers in the eastern side of Greater Taipei and the eastern region, while the western region will experience partly cloudy skies. The 20th is expected to see partly cloudy skies across different areas with a chance of localized brief showers in the eastern region.
Furthermore, he mentioned that on the 21st, another frontal system will pass through, bringing localized brief showers to the northern and eastern regions as cold air moves southward, causing a gradual temperature drop. From the 22nd to the 24th, a strong cold air mass will slowly move southward, which will be wetter and colder than the previous wave, affecting the region for a longer duration. Some low-lying areas may experience temperatures below 10 degrees, emphasizing the importance of staying warm. The night of the 23rd to the morning of the 24th will see the lowest temperatures; whether it will meet the standards of a “strong continental cold air mass” (10 degrees < Taipei monitoring station ≦ 12 degrees) remains uncertain and requires continuous monitoring.
He also noted that the latest models from various countries (Europe, the United States, Japan, Canada) all indicate that temperatures will not drop significantly by the end of February. From the 25th to the 27th, a warm air mass will strengthen, leading to a temperature rise; significant warming is expected across different regions, bringing back a "warm and spring-like" weather pattern with foggy conditions.