In recent times, the official data from the Chinese Communist Party revealed that the number of marriages in 2024 was 6.11 million, a decrease of 20.5% compared to the previous year. Population expert Yi Fuxian, in his latest commentary for Voice of America, analyzed the six major reasons behind the drastic decline in marriage numbers in China. He believes that both marriage and birth rates in China will continue to decline.
On February 8, the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs website released the fourth-quarter civil statistics for 2024, showing that the total number of registered marriages in 2024 was 6.106 million couples, compared to 7.68 million couples in 2023. This indicates a decrease of approximately 1.574 million couples, marking a decline of around 20.5%.
The national marriage registration numbers have once again reached a new low.
On February 24, Voice of America published a commentary written by Yi Fuxian. The article stated that in 2024, the number of marriages was only 6.11 million, a 20.5% decrease compared to the previous year. Since the number of marriages is directly related to the subsequent year’s births, it implies that the number of births in 2025 will plummet from 9.54 million in 2024 to a range of 7.3 million to 7.8 million, with a fertility rate of only 0.9.
The marriage registration numbers in China have been declining for many years. Official statistics show that before 2023, the national marriage registration numbers had been on a continuous decline: in 2013, there were 13.469 million couples registered for marriage, which started decreasing annually from 2014 and dropped below 10 million couples in 2019, went below 8 million couples in 2021, and reached 6.835 million couples in 2022, falling below the 7 million mark. However, in 2023, it rose again to 7.68 million couples.
Yi Fuxian pointed out that the plummeting marriage numbers can be attributed to six major reasons:
1. The one-child policy led to a decrease in births, with the age of first marriage declining rapidly.
2. Marriage and childbearing ages have been postponed. The average age for first marriage for men and women in China has progressively increased over the years.
3. The percentage of singles has been continuously rising, especially among women in their late twenties and thirties.
4. Economic stagnation has led to high youth unemployment rates and financial difficulties for young people, making it challenging for them to sustain themselves, let alone get married and have children.
5. Parents prioritize providing for their only child’s future and economic independence over marriage, leading to higher expectations and difficulty in finding suitable partners. This prolonged selective abortion has contributed to a surge in the number of unmarried individuals, increasing the cost and threshold for marriage.
6. The disposable income of Chinese residents accounts for only 44% of GDP (compared to 60%-70% in the international community), and the housing-to-income ratio is much higher than in Japan, reducing the ability for individuals to afford marriage and starting a family.
Yi Fuxian’s article suggests that if the trend of declining marriage numbers continues as seen from 2013 to 2024, by 2029, the number of marriages will drop below 3 million, with births falling below 4 million. The downward trend in China’s marriage and birth rates is irreversible and will not reach a bottom, for reasons including the continuous decrease in first-time marriages, rising rates of singlehood, further delay in marriage and childbirth ages, and the impact of advancements in artificial intelligence on employment opportunities.
The 2020 Chinese population census indicated that 55% of children were born to women under 30, and 86% to women under 35. The census also showed a negative correlation between the unmarried rates and fertility rates of women aged 20-24 and 20-29 in each province of China. Missing the prime childbearing ages of 20-29 could result in many individuals losing their fertility.
It is evident that China’s declining birth rates present significant challenges. Without a paradigm shift in various aspects such as society, economy, politics, culture, and education, China’s marriage and birth rates will continue to decrease, with the fertility rate struggling to stabilize at 0.8 or even dip below 0.7.
Yi Fuxian currently serves as a senior researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States. He is well-known for his criticism and research on China’s population policies. His most famous work, “The Great Nation of Empty Nesters: China’s Misguided Family Planning,” critiques the Chinese Communist Party’s family planning policies and predicts a severe decline in China’s population and aging issues.
He has long argued that China’s official population statistics are overstated and advocates for further relaxation of birth policies in China to alleviate the population crisis.