In January 2025, the approval of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower development project by the Chinese Communist Party, which was already included in the “14th Five-Year Plan” in March 2021, has once again stirred criticism from experts and raised concerns and vigilance from India and Bangladesh.
The Chinese authorities claim that the dam on the downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River will become the world’s largest hydropower station in terms of installed capacity. Once completed, the annual power generation is expected to reach 300 billion kilowatt-hours, surpassing the Three Gorges Dam’s output threefold. It is said that the project will help China achieve its carbon neutrality goals, promote the development of related industries, and create a large number of job opportunities in the Tibet region.
However, hydraulic experts believe that the project will cause irreversible damage to the ecological environment in the region and pose a threat to the water resources of downstream countries like India and Bangladesh, triggering and exacerbating conflicts of interest between China, India, and Bangladesh.
The Yarlung Tsangpo River is the highest-altitude major river on Earth, averaging 4,000 meters above sea level, with raging waters flowing for thousands of kilometers. Within a short 50-kilometer straight-line distance downstream, it forms a 2,000-meter drop, holding significant hydroelectric potential.
Stretching nearly 3,000 kilometers across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Yarlung Tsangpo River bends through remote areas in eastern Himalayas and forms a massive turn near the border with India (known as the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend), then flows into India and Bangladesh before reaching the Indian Ocean, known as the Brahmaputra and Jamuna River respectively.
The Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon surrounding the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend is not only the world’s longest canyon spanning over 500 kilometers but also the deepest, with a 6,009-meter drop at its deepest point, nearly three times that of the Grand Canyon in the USA. Because of this, it has been designated as a national-level natural reserve in China.
Dr. Wang Weiluo, a water resources and ecology expert living in Germany, has praised the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon as a complete natural museum, an area that kickstarted climate and environmental changes and serves as a natural gene pool for biodiversity. The Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon harbors more than half of the Earth’s species, including 3,768 vascular plant species, 232 bird species, 1,500 insect species, as well as a significant number of large fungi, amphibians, reptiles, mammals, and rust fungi, making it an ideal region for biodiversity conservation and species preservation. The Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon is truly a treasure trove of biodiversity.
Dr. Wang’s analysis suggests that based on the current hydropower development plans in the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon, its negative impact on the ecological environment would far exceed that of the Three Gorges Dam and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. According to Chinese laws, the construction of any building within national-level natural reserves is prohibited. Therefore, even according to China’s own laws, building a dam on the downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River would be illegal.
He has repeatedly argued against the project from various angles, stating that the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon is a masterpiece of nature, a treasure of humanity, and a unique wonder in the world. The Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon does not need to be awakened, nor does it need to be altered. It must not be destroyed by a large-scale hydropower project.
Moreover, the geology of the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Canyon is highly unstable, experiencing frequent geological disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, and mudslides. This is due to its location on the collision zone of the Indian and Eurasian plates, making the region highly active in terms of tectonic movements.
On August 15, 1950, a massive earthquake with a magnitude of 8.6 struck near the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend in Zayü County, Tibet, with a maximum intensity reaching possibly 12, making it the largest earthquake ever recorded in China. The earthquake resulted in approximately 4,000 deaths in China and over 1,500 deaths in India. The landslides triggered by the earthquake were the largest in China’s history.
In April 2000, a massive landslide created a barrier lake with a water volume of 4 billion cubic meters. Two months later, the barrier lake breached, causing millions of people to be affected.
In 2021, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) published a report titled “In-depth analysis of China’s ecological risks in building a giant hydropower station in Tibet,” pointing out that the significant risks associated with the project are due to its location on the India-Yarlung Tsangpo Fault, an active seismic area within the Himalayan mountain range.
Senior commentator Shíshān, who has conducted research in Tibet for many years, told The Epoch Times that the stretch from the Yarlung Tsangpo Great Bend to India is the most famous earthquake-prone area in the world. The impact of an earthquake on the dam and its consequences for downstream regions are unpredictable.
Additionally, Chinese independent geologist and president of the Trans-Himalaya Geological Society, Yang Yong, explained in 2014 why large-scale hydropower plants are not suitable for the region.
He mentioned that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the origin of major rivers in Asia, with river supply primarily reliant on glacial meltwater. Due to weak precipitation replenishment and significant seasonal water flow variations, the region’s hydroelectric power plants have low operational security, resulting in low power quality, severe winter damage, and river freezing-related hazards. Furthermore, the constraint of land value and geological conditions in Tibetan rivers makes it difficult to construct regulating reservoirs, thus reducing the power plant’s regulation performance and affecting its flexibility. These factors undermine the technical and economic indicators of the power plant.
Building a dam near the border in the downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River poses a threat to the water resources of downstream India and Bangladesh, leading both countries to express concern about the situation.
Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, recently stated, “As a downstream country with established water rights over river basins, we have consistently expressed our views and concerns to the Chinese side through expert and diplomatic channels regarding the construction of large-scale river projects on their territory.”
Jaiswal emphasized, “Transparency and consultation with downstream countries are needed. We urge China to ensure that the interests of downstream countries like those situated along the Brahmaputra River are not harmed due to activities in the upstream region.”
Malik Fida Khan, Executive Director of the Environmental and Geographic Information Services Center in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, expressed concerns about the significant negative impacts the project would have on Bangladesh.
He said, “If the river flow is obstructed, there could be water shortages and disruptions in the flow of nutrient-rich sediments, causing ecological imbalances. Riverbank erosion is likely to worsen, affecting the livelihoods of communities along the banks and other economic activities in the region.”
India has the world’s largest population, while Bangladesh ranks among the countries with the highest population density globally. Bangladesh currently has a population of 170 million, with an average of more than 1,300 people per square kilometer. Both countries have densely populated areas along rivers as the local populations depend on these rivers for agricultural irrigation, fishing, and daily water needs.
When asked about external concerns on January 6, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China’s construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has undergone “rigorous scientific demonstration” and will not negatively impact downstream countries.
In response, Wang Weiluo told The Epoch Times that the United Nations General Assembly passed the “United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses” in 1997, which includes the concept of “river basin.” This means that as riparian countries of transboundary rivers, the needs of the people in the entire basin should be considered. It is not just about national interests but also about the interests of downstream countries. Although China has not ratified this convention, if India and Bangladesh bring this matter to the International Court of Justice or the United Nations, China would not likely win such a lawsuit.
On the contrary, China emphasizes the concept of sovereignty. At a press conference in December 2020, when asked by an Indian broadcaster about China’s plans to build dams near the Line of Actual Control with India, whether there had been communication with downstream India and Bangladesh, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed that the development of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower was within China’s legitimate rights.
Author of “Water: Asia’s New Battleground,” Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Institute of Policy Studies in New Delhi, India, posited back in 2011 that future wars would not be about conquering oil but about securing water resources. The most likely place for water wars is the Asian water tower—the Tibetan Plateau.
Beijing’s claim over the “southern Tibet region” encompasses most of Arunachal Pradesh in northeastern India. The border dispute between the two countries dates back decades, with the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1987 Sino-Indian Border Conflict having ties to this area. The proposed super dam by China is located near the military concentration on the border with Arunachal Pradesh.
Wang Weiluo stated that China’s construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is bound to trigger India’s most sensitive nerves and arouse anti-China sentiments across India. Not only could it lead to conflicts, but even the safety of the dam’s power plant assembly is uncertain. “According to the Chinese map, the power plant is far from the China-India border; but according to the actual Line of Control between China and India, it is close to the Chinese side by the Line of Actual Control not far from the border,” he said.
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, when asked about Chinese projects on January 7, said, “The Indian government is on alert.”
Indian media also raised concerns that apart from enabling China to control water flow, the dam’s scale could allow Beijing to release large amounts of floodwaters during times of hostility to submerge border areas. Consequently, India plans to construct a dam on the Brahmaputra River to counter the impact of China’s dam.
Chowna Mein, Deputy Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh, stated recently that India building a dam “will be our weapon against giant Chinese dams. It is a matter of national security.”
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan discussed the impact of China’s dam construction projects near the India-China border with the Indian government during his visit to India from January 5 to 6.