Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service released its annual national security report on Wednesday, revealing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is assisting Russia in producing military drones, becoming a crucial gateway for smuggling Western components to Russia.
According to the report from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, about 80% of drone components entering Russia currently come from China. Previous reports from Ukraine indicated that approximately 60% of foreign parts found in Russian weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield were acquired through China.
The report stated that China serves as the “main gateway” for Russia’s imports of high-tech and dual-use military and civilian goods to evade Western sanctions.
Kaupo Rosin, the director of the Estonian agency, stated: “China’s interest in this matter lies in preventing Russia from failing in the war in Ukraine, as such an outcome would represent a victory for the United States, which is the main competitor of China.”
As a member of NATO, Estonia closely monitors Russia’s military capabilities and considers Moscow its primary security threat, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Like its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia was forcibly annexed by the former Soviet Union during World War II and only regained independence in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The report highlighted that Russia lacks domestic alternatives for drone components, thus relying primarily on Western sources.
It stated that the Chinese government is “facilitating secret transfers of dual-use components through private companies to promote bilateral cooperation.” This practice could reduce Russia’s dependence on Western components and weaken Western influence in this field in the long term.
Estonian intelligence suggested that Western companies with offices in China might be involved in these schemes.
The report mentioned that Russia is heavily investing in expanding its drone production, including manufacturing suicide drones similar to those of Iran.
The Kremlin plans to expand the military to 1.5 million personnel and deploy new units to Ukraine to gain combat experience. In the autumn of 2022, the number of Russian troops was between 600,000 to 700,000.
Rosin stated that post-war, these forces will be deployed on the borders with NATO countries, including the Baltic states, and NATO should strengthen its presence in the region.
Rosin also mentioned that Russia is “principally willing” to negotiate a ceasefire with Ukraine, but the purpose is only to “catch its breath” as Putin has not abandoned his “imperial ambitions.”
In any such negotiations, Russia may demand the withdrawal of NATO forces from NATO’s eastern borders. If successful, this would allow Russia to dominate the Baltic Sea region.
(This article is adapted from Reuters’ report)