Elite Forum: Zhao Leji’s Signal of releasing a torrent of information

The annual political show of the two sessions of the Chinese Communist Party is always a matter of global attention. This year, as the political show neared its end, a surprising conclusion captured the world’s focus. Zhao Leji, the Chairman of the National People’s Congress, is considered a close ally of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He not only serves as a member of the Central Political Bureau but also previously held the position of Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. After the 19th Party Congress, he also became the Chairman of the National People’s Congress. However, as this year’s two sessions approached their final stages, Zhao Leji suddenly disappeared.

Official reports stated that Zhao Leji was absent from the final meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress due to respiratory illness. Yet the next day, on March 12th, Zhao Leji made a high-profile appearance, meeting with officials from state media without showing any signs of illness. So, what really happened in these past days?

Veteran commentator and independent analyst Cai Shenkun expressed on NTD’s “Elite Forum” program that Zhao Leji’s sudden absence at the later stages of the two sessions, announced by Li Hongzhong citing a respiratory infection, is unprecedented within the Party. Especially publicly disclosing the specifics of his illness, citing a respiratory infection, in front of a large audience, could possibly associate his health issues with the COVID-19 virus. Could this be a preemptive measure to suggest to both domestic and international observers that Zhao Leji has contracted COVID-19 and might be unable to appear in the future, setting the stage for his removal? However, the next day, he unexpectedly emerged, as seen on CCTV, appearing cheerful and not at all like someone suffering from a respiratory infection.

This situation definitely involves internal power struggles. But who is really leading and controlling this power play? It is known that Li Hongzhong is a loyalist to Xi Jinping. Even though he is not a direct member of Xi’s faction, he continues to hold a position in the Political Bureau and ranks first among Vice Chairmen in the National People’s Congress, which gives him oversight over Zhao Leji.

However, this situation is suspicious and intricate, suggesting that it is not a straightforward matter. Previously, individuals associated with Zhao Leji were purged. Speculations arose in the media questioning whether these actions were related to Zhao Leji facing trouble or Xi Jinping attempting to sideline him, gradually pushing him out of the political scene. However, based on past events such as the Zhou Yongkang case, we can see that if involving current members of the Political Bureau, especially sitting members, such actions are not easily carried out.

Despite the seemingly extensive power of Xi Jinping, there are signs indicating that he is also constrained in various ways and faces challenges from different factions. If Xi wanted to remove Zhao Leji through political means while he holds his position, it would be extremely difficult.

Cai Shenkun mentioned that this could be a play or a setup, creating a false impression or laying the groundwork for a potential future event. Zhao Leji seems determined not to give in, implying that a simple cold or respiratory infection won’t be enough to drive him away from the political scene. Appearing before journalists, especially those from state media, including Li Hongzhong, who earlier announced his illness, and Li Shulei, Minister of the Central Propaganda Department and a member of the Central Political Bureau, Zhao Leji was essentially telling the entire party that he is perfectly fine and advised not to listen to baseless rumours.

Senior editor and columnist Shi Shan, on “Elite Forum,” commented that in the Communist system, when a high-ranking Party official goes missing during such meetings, it becomes a matter of great significance. Failure to address the situation promptly and dispel misunderstandings could lead to a series of problems. If Zhao Leji delayed his appearance for a couple of weeks, individuals within the party could exploit the situation to their advantage by exposing his vulnerabilities. Hence, it was crucial for Zhao Leji to appear immediately, accompanied by several members of the Political Bureau, to prove that he was indeed well.

Cai Shenkun further emphasized on “Elite Forum” that based on Xi Jinping’s actions in the past twelve years in purging the administration, he tends to neutralize individuals within the Party who pose a threat to his power or challenge his authority.

Even individuals like Wang Qishan have now found themselves isolated. Xi’s handling of senior military officials, particularly the secretive ousting of Liu Yazhou, who has since retired from the military, indicates that Xi employs different approaches towards various political opponents.

Media expert Guo Jun, also on “Elite Forum,” remarked that Zhao Leji’s situation raises suspicions, suggesting the possibility of a genuine illness. However, if this were the case, it would highlight another issue – namely that Zhao Leji’s condition was not severe since he appeared before state media the following day looking healthy and jovial.

Guo Jun questioned why, if Zhao Leji simply had a common cold and fever, he couldn’t attend the final meetings of the political conferences. He speculated that this decision might have been due to concerns about Xi Jinping’s security. Given Xi’s fragile health condition, symbolized by two cups, one with traditional Chinese medicine and the other with water, and the lack of vaccination among the officials on the podium, there were genuine worries about potential COVID-19 exposure.

During the two sessions, Zhao Leji was seated next to Xi Jinping, presenting a high-risk scenario. Therefore, the possibility arises that Zhao Leji indeed had some discomfort but not a severe illness. With test results pending at that time without confirming a specific illness, it was safer to let him stay away, triggering widespread speculation and leaving the world guessing about a potential political event. Beijing had to quickly clarify the situation, leading to Zhao Leji’s meeting with media representatives the following day.

Cai Shenkun, on “Elite Forum,” emphasized that Zhao Leji’s rise through the ranks and his political career had no direct correlation with Xi Jinping. His early career development in Qinghai occurred during Jiang Zemin’s era, particularly influenced by Zeng Qinghong. In 2000, Zhao Leji became a provincial-level official, soon becoming the youngest provincial-level official at that time. After that, he served as the Party Secretary of Qinghai Province, a significant position despite the province’s size. His elevation was backed by Zeng Qinghong, and though after the 18th Party Congress, he bypassed to the Political Bureau directly and became the Minister of the Organization Department – a position Jiang Zemin greatly valued.

Furthermore, before Zhao Leji, this position was held by Li Yuanchao, who succeeded Wang Qishan in the Organization Department. Later, when Zhao Leji became a member of the Standing Committee, he also directly took over Wang Qishan’s role as the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Although previously the position of the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection might not have been vital, with Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign, it acquired significant importance. Whether in promoting officials or purging corrupt ones, the Secretary of the Commission played a pivotal role in formulating plans.

Therefore, this position held by Zhao Leji was crucial as he helped Xi Jinping eliminate various factions, particularly targeting Wang Qishan’s allies through extensive purges. Despite his apparent promotion within the Party, Zhao Leji’s actual influence or political stature should have placed him in a higher rank, surpassing Li Qiang.

Previously, the Chairman of the National People’s Congress ranked second, but Xi Jinping seemingly did not entirely trust Zhao Leji. Even after Zhao Leji took over the position of the Chairman, Xi went through several rounds of purges targeting his allies. Moreover, Zhao Leji himself has been cautious and did not cultivate his inner circle extensively, unlike Wang Qishan. Those officials who closely followed Zhao in the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection were swiftly removed after Li Xi assumed the role, a direct hit against Zhao Leji.

It is believed that currently, Zhao Leji maintains close interactions with Zeng Qinghong, which is viewed unfavorably by Xi Jinping. Therefore, those associated with Zeng Qinghong have been continuously purged, including his family members such as Zeng Qinghong’s daughter, Zeng Baobao, and others. Xi Jinping’s cleansing actions are aimed at eradicating any influential individuals within the Party, including elders from previous administrations and those who once supported him.

Cai Shenkun pointed out that despite Zeng Qinghong being a mentor and supporter of Xi Jinping, Xi has imposed strict controls on him and continues to purge individuals linked to Zeng Qinghong. This shows that Xi Jinping senses threats to his power and must eliminate all potential instabilities to feel secure in his position.

Guo Jun highlighted on “Elite Forum” that Zhao Leji’s roots lie in Qinghai, where a significant number of his confidants have fallen from grace. Notable figures including former Politburo members Li Pengxin and Yang Fasen, Deputy Chairman of the Qinghai Provincial Committee Ma Fengsheng, former Party Secretary of Xining Mao Xiaoning, and former Mayor of Xining Kong Lingdong, all associated with Zhao Leji, have been implicated in malpractice. Additionally, three former Deputy Mayors of Xining, Xu Guocheng, Wang Ping, and Yao Lin, who served alongside Zhao, faced investigations, demonstrating Zhao Leji’s influence in Qinghai. The Northwest clique that once supported Xi Jinping essentially dissolved with the removal of Zhao Leji from Qinghai and Shaanxi officials.

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