Elite Forum: Accelerated Hollowing of Urban and Rural Areas in China – Where Have All the People Gone?

Recently, a lot of videos about China’s ghost villages have been circulating online. In some rural areas, there are villages with nice houses, fully furnished and decorated, but no one is living in them. It’s not only in rural areas that ghost villages exist, but also in urban areas where malls are empty. China, with a population of 1.4 billion, used to be crowded wherever you went. This situation seems to have disappeared now. Where have all the Chinese people gone?

Independent TV producer Li Jun stated on NTD’s “Elite Forum” program that ghost villages have been appearing in both impoverished regions and developed provinces in China for many years, especially in the past few years after the pandemic. A video documented ghost villages in seven to eight regions, which was shocking to watch. For instance, in one area, there were rows of relatively new farmhouses and several five to six-story buildings that appeared to be about 60-70% new, yet all were vacant. In one village that used to have around 406 households, only one remains. In at least two videos, upon entering empty houses, there were beds, blankets, and televisions inside. These items didn’t have thick layers of dust, indicating that people hadn’t been gone for long.

Li Jun mentioned the most surprising case was a small town in Guizhou with a bank, hotel, hospital, school, and police station, but no residents. The voice in the video described it as akin to being in a scene from a doomsday movie.

Renowned blind lawyer Chen Guangcheng, speaking on “Elite Forum,” stated that the depopulation of rural areas in China is due to various reasons, with a significant decrease in the population being an undeniable fact. In recent years, the birth rate in China has been decreasing by over two million annually. This significant decline in births, combined with a substantial increase in mortality, particularly from strange illnesses due to Communist Party mismanagement leading to river and air pollution, and the increased occurrence of diseases like strokes and heart conditions, is a major factor contributing to the population decrease.

Chen Guangcheng further explained that another reason for the emergence of empty villages is the sharp decline in population, causing the remaining residents to migrate to find work, leaving many villages nearly deserted, with only a few elderly residents left, while some households have no elders at all. With the improving conditions, many have bought homes in cities and moved their children there, leading to a common phenomenon where rural houses are left unoccupied.

Senior media figure Guo Jun mentioned that the depopulation of Chinese villages can also be attributed to several other major factors in addition to the decline in population. The urbanization rate in China was 36% in 2000, with rural residents comprising 64% of the total population, equivalent to around 700 million people. By 2020, the urbanization rate had increased to 66%, leading to a nearly 200 million drop in rural population. However, the official numbers are disputable due to China defining farmers not as a profession but a social status based on household registration, causing many discrepancies.

Guo Jun highlighted that in recent years, local governments have been encouraging rural migrants to become local residents by purchasing homes in the cities or county towns, leading to a significant decrease in the rural population residing in villages. Despite these ghost villages appearing well-kept with homes fully furnished, suggesting some form of care, the actual residents have likely relocated to cities while still maintaining their rural household registration and land rights.

Moreover, the issue of aging demographics in Chinese rural areas is more severe than in many cities, with projections showing a staggering increase in the elderly population over the coming years, heightening concerns about the sharp decline in the overall population due to factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn.

The gradual decline in urban populations can be attributed to social shifts brought about by the internet revolution, altering traditional forms of entertainment and shopping habits. The ease of access to various online activities has significantly diminished foot traffic in shopping centers across cities and fostered a culture where entertainment, shopping, and dining can all be readily accomplished online.

With expanding transportation options, the geographic range of human activities has vastly increased, enabling individuals to travel further distances for daily living and leisure. The proliferation of e-commerce platforms has further revolutionized consumer behavior, impacting traditional brick-and-mortar businesses and contributing to the declining population density in shopping areas.

In conclusion, the depopulation trend in China is expected to persist in the coming years, exacerbated by factors such as declining birth rates, rural-to-urban migration, and the reshaping of social activities due to technological advancements.

The discussions on the “Elite Forum” program shed light on the complex factors contributing to the phenomenon of ghost villages in China, raising critical questions about the future trajectory of the country’s population dynamics and the social and economic implications associated with depopulation trends.