Economic Powerhouse Experiences Population Decline, China’s Population Crisis Looms Large

In 2024, economic powerhouses like Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan provinces in China saw a decrease in their population. Shandong, known as the “most fertile province in the country,” recorded a natural population growth rate of -1.67‰, indicating a concerning trend of demographic decline. Some analysts have dubbed the population crisis in China as a “gray rhino”.

According to the recently released “2024 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin” from 13 Chinese provinces, 8 provinces experienced negative natural population growth rates, signaling a decrease in their populations. Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, prominent economic provinces, saw significant declines in population, with Shandong at -1.67‰, Jiangsu at -2.7‰, and Sichuan at -3.02‰.

These 13 provinces include Shandong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Gansu, Hainan, Qinghai, and Shaanxi.

Population natural growth = (number of births in a year – number of deaths in a year) / average population in a year × 1000‰ = birth rate – death rate.

Recent reports by BBC Chinese highlighted that the population crisis in China has become a looming threat similar to a “gray rhino,” signifying a visible and potent crisis.

In 2023, only 9 million babies were born in China, and by 2050, these babies will be 27 years old, entering the prime age for starting families and careers. Moreover, by 2050, individuals born in the late 1980s and early 1990s will turn 60, triggering retirement, compounded by the third peak of births in China, with up to 25 million babies born annually. This demographic shift will lead to a scenario where each elderly person will only be supported by 1.5 working individuals, posing significant burdens on both demographics.

The Chinese government ended its one-child policy in 2016 and allowed couples to have three children starting in 2021. However, this policy change has not reversed the trend of declining population numbers.

Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan, pointed out that China’s declining population is rooted in deep structural issues, emphasizing the need for fundamental changes such as strengthening social security nets and eliminating gender discrimination to reverse this downward trend.

Among the top five provinces in terms of GDP ranking, except for Guangdong, which has not released its data, the remaining provinces all showed negative natural population growth rates. According to the economic data released by various provinces in 2024, the top five provinces in GDP ranking are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan.

Shandong was once known as the “most fertile province in the country.” In 2016, Shandong experienced a surge in births to 1.77 million, accounting for 1/10 of the national total. However, starting from 2018, the number of births has been declining annually, dropping below a million in 2020 and further decreasing to 682,200 in 2022. By 2022, the natural population growth rate had plummeted to -0.93‰, and by the end of 2023, it further slid to -2.18‰.

Jiangsu is experiencing a trend of declining birthrates and deepening aging demographics. After reaching a peak birth rate of 9.76‰ in 2016, Jiangsu has seen a continual decrease in birth rates over the past decade.

According to data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2024, the country’s population was 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to the previous year, marking three consecutive years of population decline.

China’s demographic challenges have led to a shrinking labor force, which could potentially harm economic prospects. Additionally, the increasing elderly population will impose additional strain on the insufficient pension system.

Official Chinese figures show that by the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above had reached 310.31 million people, accounting for 22% of the total population, showing a continuous increase from the previous year’s 296.97 million.

Research institutions like The Economist Intelligence Unit project that by 2035, the population of individuals aged 60 and above in China is expected to make up nearly one-third of the total population. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also predicts that by 2035, the funds of China’s pension system will be depleted.

The downward trend in China’s population is further evident in the data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, showing that the number of registered marriages in 2024 was 6.106 million couples, a decrease of 1.574 million couples or approximately 20.5% compared to 2023.

Renowned China expert Gordon Chang, in an article published in Newsweek on December 23, 2024, asserted that the reasons behind China’s declining population include profound social changes, ongoing economic decline, and deepening sense of disenchantment.