Decoding the News: U.S. Downscales Diplomatic Relations with CCP, Trump’s Trade War

Welcome to the “News Insight” on Wednesday, February 26th. In this episode, our guest analyst is Senior Researcher Song Guocheng from the International Relations Research Center at the University of Politics, and your host is Zhang Dongxu.

Today’s focus: Ending the Russia-Ukraine war – Is Europe’s plan more fair? Should Trump understand the dual-pressure strategy? Is the US no longer hiding arming Taiwan against the CCP? Has it declared full economic war on China? Is Europe uniting to resist the CCP? The CCP continues to build naval bases around the world.

With the recent change in government in Germany, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is set to cease as early as this week. Ukraine and the US will sign a mineral agreement, paving the way for European peacekeeping forces to intervene. Can Trump’s plan achieve lasting peace in Europe?

The intense triangular power struggle between the US, China, and Russia continues. Russia is discussing economic partnership agreements with the US while echoing Trump’s calls for military spending cuts and nuclear disarmament. Meanwhile, Putin is also in talks with the Chinese leader, with the CCP proclaiming an unlimited and genuine friendship.

Trump has launched what may be the US’s most significant economic offensive against China in 30 years, aiming to strengthen the blockade against the CCP with the help of Congress and allies.

The US military has announced Taiwan’s participation in the largest joint military exercise in Asia. Meanwhile, China conducted live-fire military exercises near Australia and New Zealand. What are their intentions?

Chinese warships have recently ventured deep into the Second Island Chain in the Southeast Sea of Australia, just 150 nautical miles from Sydney. This unprecedented move by China indicates an escalation in its military projection beyond the First and Second Island Chains. These actions, including unnotified live-fire drills disrupting commercial flights between Australia and New Zealand, have prompted Australian Foreign Minister to demand an explanation from China. The New Zealand Foreign Minister is set to visit Beijing and question China face-to-face.

Regarding China’s previous efforts to improve relations with Australia and New Zealand, why the sudden change? Additionally, New Zealand’s Prime Minister’s upcoming visit to Beijing raises questions about China’s strategic partnership with the Cook Islands.

The US Secretary of State recently approved defense aid waivers for Taiwan and the Philippines as a strong signal to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region. When asked about China’s threat to Taiwan, Secretary of State Blinken reiterated the US’s opposition to any form of coercion or forced changes in the status quo. Notably, he did not mention the three communiqués between the US and China. This shift from the previous policy stance of referring to the “One China Policy” including the Taiwan Relations Act, the three communiqués, and the six assurances has caught the attention of Taiwanese media.

As tensions escalate, with countries like the Philippines and Japan increasing military cooperation, China finds itself under pressure along the First Island Chain. Recent developments, such as active US military participation in Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises and the launch of Asia’s largest military exercise involving hundreds of troops from various countries, signify growing concerns in the region.

Regarding the above developments, how do you interpret the conflicting reports released by Taiwan and the US military, only to be retracted shortly after high media coverage? What does this signify?

From the Trump to Biden administrations, there seems to be a continuation in building a security network in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China. With a focus on Taiwan as a key strategic point, both the White House and Congress appear to be intensifying efforts from the previous administration.

Professor Song, your insights on the global “clear the communists” strategy executed by the Trump administration are thought-provoking. How do you observe the current US executive and legislative strategies, including Trump’s investment restrictions on China, the Congress’s “Restore Trade Fairness Act,” and the “Fair Competition 2.0 Act”?

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its third year, European leaders visit Kyiv to show support for Ukraine. The UK Prime Minister announces severe sanctions to pressure Russia into concessions for a ceasefire. French President Macron, after meeting with Trump at the White House, suggests a potential ceasefire within weeks and that Putin might accept European peacekeeping forces entering Ukraine.

The latest updates reveal that Ukrainian President Zelensky will visit the White House to sign mineral agreements on the defense and economic fronts, with the new version reportedly beneficial to Ukraine.

What are your thoughts on Trump’s efforts to end the war swiftly and prevent further casualties? Through multiple negotiation channels with Russia, Ukraine, and European allies, how is the Trump administration striving for a lasting peace amid complex geopolitical interests?

Furthermore, the US-Ukraine mineral agreement not only benefits both countries economically but also provides the US with a strategic foothold in the region. As Putin and Trump discuss economic partnership agreements, there seems to be a competitive tone, especially as Russia emphasizes its abundant rare earth mineral resources and potential cooperation with the US, weakening China’s control over these critical resources.

Trump aims to end the war, contain China and Russia, and deter a potentially catastrophic confrontation. However, concerns arise over the possibility of a tighter cohesion between China and Russia. Putin’s recent call with the CCP leadership, emphasizing the strong “unlimited partnership” and “true friendship,” has sparked various interpretations regarding the solidity of the China-Russia relationship.

It seems that Putin’s agreement to Trump’s proposal for trilateral nuclear disarmament talks, subject to mutual defense spending cuts between the US and Russia, could further complicate the dynamics between the three global powers. How do you interpret this latest development, Professor Song?

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