Cold air moving south on the 6th, temperatures in Taiwan expected to drop below 10 degrees in the next week.

Taiwan is expecting cold air from the mainland to move south on the 6th, according to meteorologists. They have warned that in the coming week, temperatures in some low-lying areas could regularly drop below 10 degrees Celsius in the early mornings. People are advised to stay tuned to the special low-temperature alerts issued by the weather bureau.

Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan mentioned on the show “Sanlih Accurate Weather Forecast – Secrets of the Weather” that the latest European model (ECMWF) simulation at 8 p.m. on the 4th indicated that the western portion of Taiwan would have clear and stable weather due to the influence of the northeast monsoon, with Taipei experiencing cloudy skies with occasional sunshine. Meanwhile, the eastern regions might see brief localized showers. Daytime temperatures are expected to slightly rise, with the northern regions feeling cool and the southern regions comfortable, while mornings and evenings remain cold.

Wu Derong explained that on the 5th, the northeast monsoon would weaken during the day, bringing clear skies to the west and sporadic light rain to the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures. However, as the cold front approaches by the evening, there would be a quick change in the north and east – passing showers followed by cloudy skies before clearing up. The temperature would drop. The temperatures across different regions for today are forecasted to range from 13 to 20 degrees Celsius in the north, 11 to 24 degrees Celsius in the central region, 10 to 25 degrees Celsius in the south, and 13 to 24 degrees Celsius in the east.

According to the latest model simulations, a large-scale cold air mass is expected to move south starting on the night of the 5th and continue affecting the area throughout the week. On the 6th, as the cold front passes through and dry cold air descends southward, the north and east may experience brief showers followed by clouds clearing up and becoming sunny again. The weather will become progressively drier and colder as the day progresses. The 7th is expected to be clear and cloudless in all regions; the combination of dry cold air and “nocturnal radiative cooling” will lead to higher probabilities of colder morning and nighttime temperatures, particularly fitting the criteria for mainland cold air masses (12 degrees< Taipei station ≤ 14 degrees).

Wu further noted that based on the latest model simulations from various countries, the cold air effect is expected to persist on the 8th and 9th. The western part of Taiwan will remain clear and stable, while moisture will gradually increase in the eastern regions, leading to sporadic light showers. By the 10th and 11th, there will be more moisture in the air and the cold air mass will strengthen again, resulting in significant rainfall in the north and east. Temperatures will drop further, becoming damp and cold. During this time, both European and American model simulations suggest the strengthening of the cold air masses, with the likelihood of mainland cold air masses remaining the highest, although challenging the probability of intense mainland cold air masses.

Looking ahead to the weather for the upcoming week, Wu highlighted that in some low-lying areas of Taiwan, temperatures could regularly drop below 10 degrees Celsius in the early mornings. People are advised to pay attention to the "low-temperature special reports" issued by the weather bureau. It's only from the 12th daytime onwards that the cold air is expected to gradually weaken. However, as the simulations near the end of the period, the uncertainties increase, and the models from different countries will continue to adjust. It is recommended to closely monitor the updates as they unfold.