China’s population continues to decline, leading to various issues that have emerged due to the decreasing population. Analysis indicates that China’s demographic dividend no longer exists, with a drastic decline in population, gender imbalance, and accelerated aging being challenges that the Chinese Communist Party finds difficult to address.
According to data published by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, there were 9.56 million births in China, with a birth rate of 6.77‰; 10.41 million deaths, resulting in a death rate of 7.37‰; and a natural population growth rate of -0.60‰, marking the first negative population growth in nearly 61 years.
In 2023, there were 9.02 million births in China, with a birth rate of 6.39‰, a decrease of 540,000 from the previous year; there were 11.1 million deaths, an increase of 690,000 from the previous year, with a death rate of 7.87‰, resulting in a natural population growth rate of -1.48‰.
This year, according to a report from the World Population Network, the United Nations predicts that there will be 8.82 million births and 11.68 million deaths in China in 2024. This indicates that the negative population growth in China in the passing year of 2024 will be even higher.
With the decrease in newborns, many obstetrics hospitals in China have closed, maternity centers have shut down, thousands of kindergartens have closed, 170,000 kindergarten teachers have lost their jobs, and 20,000 private schools have disappeared.
In China, many young people are mostly only children and reluctant to have children. Jin Yan (pseudonym), a post-90s resident in Jinan, told Epoch Times that, “Young people are under tremendous pressure. After three years of the pandemic, both my husband and I lost our jobs. We spent almost all the savings of both our parents on buying a house when we got married. Now, we have to pay the mortgage every month. If we default, the house will be taken back, and all the money we paid for the house will be lost, so we are working hard now just to repay the mortgage.”
Jin Yan said, “More than half of my classmates are single and cannot afford to get married, and even if they do get married, they rarely want to have children. My relatives, friends, and colleagues all think the same way; they are afraid to have children. When we occasionally get together, we complain about the high cost of living, and those with children complain about the high cost of raising them. Many people are afraid to have children.”
Based on the 2020 census data, it is estimated that the number of childbearing women in China will decrease by around 4 million each year in the coming years. The Ministry of Civil Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party has shown that in the first three quarters of this year, there were 4.747 million registered marriages in China, a decrease of 943,000 compared to the previous year, a decrease of 16.57%.
Despite the Chinese Communist Party spending considerable incentives for childbirth, people’s desire for childbirth remains low. According to a report from the Chinese Communist Party’s official media, by the end of 2023, the population of Subei County, Gansu Province, was 12,657, with fewer than five newborns per month. In order to increase the birth rate, incentive policies were introduced, providing up to 100,000 yuan in subsidies to families with two or three children. In the first year, 1,000 yuan and 2,000 yuan were distributed monthly, and in the second year, 1,400 yuan and 3,000 yuan were respectively distributed monthly, and in the third year, 1,700 yuan and 3,300 yuan were respectively distributed monthly.
But with frequent policy changes by the Chinese Communist Party, many Chinese people no longer trust the Party. He Xia (pseudonym), a resident of Lanzhou, Gansu Province, told Epoch Times, “In the past, the Chinese Communist Party implemented the one-child policy, those who had a second child would be laid off, claiming that the one-child policy would remain unchanged for a century, and having only one child was good, as the government would take care of elderly support in the future. Now, young people are not willing to have children, and they have started to provide incentives and subsidies for having a second or third child. This policy flip-flops, can we still believe what they say? As someone who has experience, I don’t believe it.”
Regarding the continued decline in the Chinese population, Li Yuanhua, a Chinese problem expert and former associate professor of history education at Capital Normal University in China, told Epoch Times, “China is experiencing a precipitous decline in population, leading to a direct consequence of imbalanced gender proportions and intensified aging in society. The peak of childbirth in Chinese society was from 1962 to 1972, and these individuals have gradually left the workforce.”
“Due to various social pressures and unaffordable living costs, Chinese people generally do not dare to have children, nor do they want to. This social evil caused by the Chinese Communist Party is something they are unable to reverse. The various social contradictions it triggers could potentially cause the entire society to collapse,” he said.
With the decrease in newborns, many hospitals with maternity wards have shut down. For example, Changsha Baijia Maria Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital announced its closure from October 21, 2024, to April 20, 2025.
Data from the “China Health and Health Statistics Yearbook” shows that the number of obstetrics hospitals in China decreased from 807 in 2020 to 793 in 2021, with comprehensive hospitals also separately closing obstetric wards. The Fifth Hospital of Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province (a tertiary hospital), ceased obstetric services on March 11 this year; the Hospital of Chinese Medicine in Jiangshan City, Zhejiang Province, stopped its obstetrics services from February 1 this year; and the Jinshazhou Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine ceased its obstetrics services from January this year. In September last year, the Second Hospital of Yinzhou District in Ningbo stopped providing care for pregnant women.
Furthermore, Guangdong Huizhou Huikang Hospital, Xiuyu District Dongjiao Town Health Center in Putian, Fujian, and the Second Chinese Medicine Hospital in Huangdao District, Qingdao, Shandong, all stopped obstetric services within the first few months of this year.
Jia Hao (pseudonym), an obstetrician at Linyi Hospital in Shandong, told Epoch Times that previously, there were not enough beds for childbirth, and bookings had to be made in advance, with at least 8-10 deliveries a day. Starting this year, having one delivery a day is considered good, so some obstetricians have merged into other departments, and some have left their profession for administrative roles.
Also impacted are maternity centers. According to official reports, over the past three years, in major cities like Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanning, and Fuzhou, over a hundred maternity centers suddenly closed down, with the amount involved in each center reaching several million yuan.
Another severely affected sector is kindergartens. According to statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Education, in 2023, China had a total of 274,400 kindergartens, a decrease of 14,800 compared to 2022, with an average of 40 kindergartens closing each day.
In 2022, there were 3.2442 million full-time preschool teachers in China, which decreased to 3.0737 million in 2023, a reduction of 170,000 teachers in a year.
In addition, private schools have also been significantly affected. According to the “Statistical Bulletin on National Education Development in 2023” released by the Chinese Ministry of Education official website on October 24 this year, there were a total of 167,200 private schools of all levels in China, a decrease of 11,092 from 2022, with 3.4319 million fewer students enrolled than the previous year. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the total number of private schools in China has decreased for four consecutive years, with over 20,000 schools closing down.