Taiwan’s National Policy Institute recently held a seminar titled “The 3rd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the New Regulations on Disciplining Taiwan Independence,” inviting scholars and experts to analyze the situation. Experts pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party is still spinning in place, avoiding key issues, facing unprecedented internal instability, and ultimately unable to break free from the shackles of communism.
The seminar was moderated by the Deputy Director of the National Policy Institute, Guo Yuren. Dong Liwen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, stated that the 3rd Plenary Session of the CCP is still spinning in place, avoiding key issues. The delay of nearly a year was due to international political and economic uncertainties, domestic economic stagnation, instability within the party, and uncertain internal conditions. The rush to hold the meeting just before the Beidaihe Conference in August demonstrated that the internal instability of the CCP is beyond imagination.
Dong Liwen pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party is currently wavering between national security and economic development. Since the 3rd Plenary Session of the 18th National Congress in 2013, which proposed comprehensive deepening of reforms, 72 reform meetings have been held, but economic policies have been regressing instead of progressing, deviating from the original direction. In 2018, the 3rd Plenary Session shifted towards deepening reforms within the party and state institutions, indicating that they believe the problem lies in the system and mechanisms, dealing with it through authoritarian rule. However, the progress of the “reform of party and state institutions” has been slow and ineffective.
Hung Yaonan, Deputy Director of the Mainland China Studies Center at Tamkang University, said that since Xi Jinping came to power, he has continuously emphasized the “Chinese model,” “Chinese path,” to “Chinese-style modernization,” urging not to blindly copy Western models and insisting on the path of authoritarian rule.
Tian Hongmao, Chairman of the National Policy Institute, stated that Marxist-Leninist communism uses various slogans as tools for propaganda, propagating Mao Zedong Thought through a unique environment in China, influencing political thinking and affecting the minds of the people for decades. The direction of the CCP’s reform and development has reverted to the Mao Zedong era during Xi Jinping’s tenure.
Tian Hongmao emphasized the attention he has long paid to the political and economic development process in China. The decision at the 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in December 1978 to adopt the reform and opening-up policy highlighted the challenges of implementing reforms while staying true to Marxist-Leninist ideology and systems. If the CCP does not abandon Marxist-Leninist communism and the Marxist-Leninist system, it will ultimately be unable to break free from the shackles of communism.
Regarding the pressure from the CCP towards Taiwan, Sun Xiaoya, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) in Taipei, urged the people not to be alarmed by the CCP’s aggressive rhetoric and actions, nor to be numb to the risks. He emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and the potential consequences of a military conflict between the two sides.
Ministry of Mainland Affairs Commission Chairman Qiu Chuizheng stated that the CCP has consistently refused to acknowledge the objective existence of the Republic of China, using military threats, diplomatic pressures, economic and social infiltration, and legal sanctions under the pretext of the “One China Principle” and the reunification process framework, creating a complex set of pressure on Taiwan. This has been the main cause of tension and estrangement in cross-strait relations and the root of instability in the Taiwan Strait situation.
Qiu Chuizheng criticized the CCP for ignoring the fact that Taiwan does not fall under its jurisdiction and for establishing the “22 Punishment Opinions on Taiwanese Independence” with a vague definition of “Taiwan independence.” He highlighted that the measures under the law, including extraterritorial jurisdiction, lifelong prosecution, absent trials, capital punishment, harsh sentencing, and asset confiscation, are violations of basic principles of international law. These oppressive measures are not recognized by the international community and only serve to exacerbate tensions between the two sides, disrupt normal cross-strait exchanges, stoke animosity between the people on both sides, and work against their interests.
In the face of the pressure from the CCP, Qiu Chuizheng emphasized the importance of showing resolve in safeguarding the nation. He advocated for strengthening national defense and asymmetric capabilities under President Lai Ching-te’s “Four Pillars of Peace” action plan, ensuring economic security and supply chain flexibility, deepening cooperation with the international community and democratic countries, and collectively addressing the threats posed by authoritarian regimes.
Professor Fan Shiping from the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University noted that the lack of national security wirelines 46 years after the comprehensive opening up at the 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee in 1978 would inevitably impact China’s economic development. While the CCP has issued new regulations disciplining Taiwan independence, it has failed to precisely define what constitutes “Taiwan independence.” Surveys conducted by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University showed that only 1.2% of respondents support “immediate unification,” while 6.2% lean towards unification. This means that 92.6% of Taiwanese people are considered by the CCP as advocates of Taiwan independence.
Regarding the CCP’s new regulations disciplining Taiwan independence, Dong Liwen criticized the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office’s claims that the regulations target only a small group of individuals or Taiwan independence proponents. He pointed out the deception employed during the implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, initially purported to target a small group but ultimately affecting all Hong Kong residents in various aspects of life under an authoritarian regime. He warned that the CCP’s intentions towards Taiwan mirror its actions in Hong Kong and represent a threat to Taiwan’s values and way of life.
Zhang Wuyue, Director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, highlighted the recent revisions by the CCP to laws such as the Anti-espionage Law, the Foreign NGO Activities Management Law, the National Security Law, the Cybersecurity Law, the State Secrets Protection Law, and regulations governing administrative law enforcement procedures and criminal case handling by national security agencies. These laws have led to increased scrutiny and detention of Taiwanese citizens entering or exiting China, surpassing the impact of the new regulations disciplining Taiwan independence. This situation necessitates a focused response by the government.
Honorary Professor Ming Juzheng from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University stated that even with 20 more years, the CCP cannot resolve its current problems. The main issue lies in politics hindering economic development – the rigid one-party rule inevitably leads to economic contradictions, resulting in what is known as a “birdcage economy.” Over the years, the CCP has used anti-Taiwan independence as a strategic focus, leveraging nationalism to demonize Taiwan’s achievements as part of the Taiwan independence movement, and strengthening the “One China Principle.” Taiwan is often derogatorily referred to as a “ghost island” by the CCP, but it is widely recognized as one of the most advanced developing nations globally. It is imperative not to view cross-strait relations solely through the lens of the CCP’s narratives.
Wang Jianquan, Vice President and Acting President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, emphasized the need for Taiwan to reassess its economic development strategy in response to the U.S.-China trade war and technological rivalry. He called for active development in AI and its applications, as well as in five key industries, positioning Taiwan as a hub for Asia-Pacific trade and technology coordination and expanding into new international markets such as India and Mexico. Additionally, with 90% of young people in Taiwan attending university and 80% entering the service industry after graduation due to stagnant wages from insufficient skill improvements, the government must consider strategies to facilitate the two-way flow of talent, capital, and technology domestically and internationally, fostering a flexible international economic ecosystem.