Chinese Communist Party Experts Analyze US-China Space Confrontation in “Satellite Competition” Exercise

In recent years, the Chinese Communist authorities have been vigorously developing space weapons, with the recent revelation of “satellite wrestling” being the latest example. Despite Beijing’s verbal emphasis on peaceful use of space, these actions indicate that military confrontation and competition between the United States and China have moved from the ground to space.

According to a report from Defense News, on March 18, a senior official from the US Space Force stated that commercial systems had observed Chinese satellites practicing “wrestling” maneuvers in low Earth orbit in 2024. The operation involved three “Experiment-24C” experimental satellites and two other “Practice-605” A and B satellites with signal intelligence missions.

This exercise demonstrated the ability of these satellites to perform complex maneuvers in orbit, including rendezvous and proximity operations, involving not only maneuvering around other objects but also conducting inspections.

Deputy Chief of Space Operations Michael Guetlein stated, “This is what we refer to as space wrestling. They are practicing tactics, techniques, and procedures for on-orbit space operations from one satellite to another.”

Although the Chinese Communist Party has conducted similar rendezvous and proximity operations in the past, this time involved more satellites.

Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Policy analyst Zhou Ruomin told Epoch Times that “satellite wrestling” refers to the theoretical concept of satellite warfare in space, including using interference technology to disrupt communication or navigation systems, using directed energy weapons or small missiles to damage or destroy satellites, and approaching target satellites for damaging interference.

Assistant researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Policy’s PLA Military and Operational Concepts Xu Zhixiang told Epoch Times that satellite wrestling is different from dogfighting. The space domain is vast, so as long as a satellite can maneuver, approach another satellite for what is called rendezvous, it can be considered space wrestling.

Xu Zhixiang stated that most satellite interactions are defensive, such as tracking other satellites, establishing protection boundaries, or developing anti-satellite technology, without actual instances of satellite wrestling.

However, both Chinese media and military publications have focused heavily on developing anti-space capabilities and provided various justifications for it.

In 2021, a senior Chinese military official stated that China had been conducting anti-satellite missile tests since 2005 and later developed an experimental satellite with a mechanical arm for anti-satellite purposes.

Despite China’s space white papers emphasizing peaceful use of space, the primary and initial motivation for China’s space technology development has always been military purposes. In the 1950s, China first developed ballistic missiles and rocket programs.

Today, the Chinese military still manages the entire space infrastructure in China, with every launch site, tracking facility, and mission control facility being military installations. Chinese astronauts almost always have military backgrounds or status.

Due to this, China’s space program and activities have always lacked transparency.

Xu Zhixiang stated that China’s space capabilities are closely related to nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, as launch vehicles and ballistic missiles are two sides of the same coin.

“Since China’s ‘Two Bombs, One Satellite’ strategy decades ago, a significant amount of resources has been invested in space technology development by China’s top scientific and technological talents,” he said.

Xu Zhixiang mentioned that current advanced combat capabilities are essentially related to space utilization. Whether it is precision attacks or highly anticipated low-orbit communication satellites during the Russo-Ukraine War, various combat capabilities heavily rely on space, making it a critical area for the US military in multi-domain operations.

Foreign observers and researchers generally believe that China is strongly developing space weapons.

US Space Force Commander Chance Saltzman told Politico that China’s extensive development of space weapons, along with their rapid pace of development, is concerning.

Pentagon assessments indicate that China’s ambitions go beyond just military confrontation and reflect their ambitions for global technological and strategic leadership.

Experts suggest that if a war were to break out between the US and China, it would likely start in space.

China has been developing missiles launched from the ground or space to destroy enemy satellites or ground stations launching satellites, as well as developing ground or space-based high-power lasers to destroy or damage enemy satellites.

In 2005, the Chinese military conducted a satellite blinding experiment using laser technology in Xinjiang against a low-orbit satellite located 600 kilometers away.

A report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in 2011 showed that China was suspected of infiltrating two non-military US government satellites four times in 2007 and 2008.

In January 2019, the US Defense Intelligence Agency warned that China might deploy a ground-based laser weapon by 2020 to counter low-orbit space sensors and damage non-optical satellites’ structures.

Zhou Ruomin stated that for the US, the Space Force needs to have the capability to prevent and defeat aggression when necessary to ensure that the advantage remains in their hands.

“To widen the gap, the US will continue to increase the number of satellites and establish a low-cost satellite network. This will help reduce losses if China were to truly carry out anti-satellite activities or satellite wrestling,” she said.

Xu Zhixiang stated that China’s satellites capable of wrestling are not numerous or low-cost. The “Experiment-24” series satellites deployed by China are not mass-deployed items. Currently, they are in a stage of technical verification and not yet mature.

He mentioned that if China were to use very expensive anti-satellite missiles to attack low-cost, short-lived satellites that can be rapidly replaced like the Starlink satellites, it would be uneconomical. If they were to target high-intensity, high-priced satellite systems in higher orbits, it would require even more expensive and high-cost anti-satellite weapons to bring down.

Xu Zhixiang stated that another key point is that if satellites have comprehensive awareness abilities and can respond early to threats, such as changing orbits, the US already has strong capabilities in this area.

Zhou Ruomin stated that the importance of space at the national security level does not just lie in aggressive military operations.

“The space competition carries ideological implications. Space technology reflects a country’s technological development and international status. The competition between China and the US has shifted from the ground to space, where both showcase their superior capabilities through space achievements,” she said.

Xu Zhixiang mentioned that especially since Xi Jinping took office, space has become a top priority for China’s technological development, emphasizing space technology and investing larger resources.

“For Xi, nationalism is an important tool for internal centralization. In this situation, regardless of the narratives of major powers, the Chinese Dream, the Strong Army Dream narrative, space technology plays a very important role,” he said.

Xu Zhixiang believes that despite China’s comprehensive development of space technology, they lack this crucial element.

He mentioned that the high efficiency of the new American space industry and its technological development capabilities come from the innovative and flexible nature of American society. This is the opposite of China’s societal constraints and controls, which do not have the same level of fault tolerance and response capabilities.

“In this aspect, the US can significantly widen its technological advantage in competition.”

Xu Zhixiang also noted that in recent years, Xi has removed quite a few military-industrial officials. When figures like Li Shangfu in the missile and rocket military fields have been gradually phased out, the impact on technological research and development in the space sector remains to be seen.