After Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te delivered a National Day speech last week, the People’s Liberation Army of China began a new round of military exercises near Taiwan today (14th). Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense strongly condemned the actions. Experts pointed out that the military exercises by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have a blockade intent but can only be conducted during peace times. In the event of a conflict, Taiwan has the ability to counteract any blockade. Analysis suggests that the intimidation and united front implications of the CCP military exercises outweigh the military aspect.
According to an official announcement from the CCP’s Eastern Theater Command, the exercise known as “Joint Sword-2024B” on the 14th, took place in the Taiwan Strait and in the northern, southern, and eastern seas of Taiwan. The training content includes “sea and air combat readiness patrols, port and area blockades, land and sea strikes, and seizing comprehensive control.” The CCP military claimed that this is a powerful deterrent against “Taiwan independence forces seeking independence.”
The map released by the Eastern Theater Command showed that the exercises were held in nine areas surrounding Taiwan: two near the east coast of Taiwan, three near the west coast, one in the north of Taiwan, and three around Kinmen and Matsu islands, which are Taiwan’s outlying islands close to the Chinese coast.
The Eastern Theater Command spokesperson also mentioned that the Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group was in the airspace east of Taiwan Island, conducting coordinated exercises with land, sea, and air forces, joint air control, and land and sea strikes.
In response to the CCP’s exercises, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense issued a statement strongly condemning the CCP’s “irrational provocations” and has dispatched appropriate forces to respond, “safeguarding freedom and democracy with practical actions and defending the sovereignty of the Republic of China.”
Former Dean of the Political Warfare College at the National Defense University of Taiwan, Major General Yu Zongji, stated that this is the second military exercise by the CCP since President Lai Ching-te took office, mainly targeting Lai Ching-te’s statement in his National Day speech that “China has no right to represent Taiwan” and his previous remarks on the “Motherland Theory.” The CCP wants to express its dissatisfaction and is attempting to pressure Taiwan militarily, a tactic that has become quite common.
Yu Zongji noted that the specific content of the 2024B military exercise is different from previous ones, specifically targeting six important ports in Taiwan, including Keelung, Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung, Taitung, and Hualien. The purpose is to implement the so-called python strategy against Taiwan, continuously squeezing Taiwan’s international space.
Su Zi-yun, Director of the Institute of Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, commented that the main focus of the CCP’s exercises this time is the intention to blockade Taiwan’s air and sea airports and ports. Combined firepower strikes are aimed at attacking important facilities and military bases.
He believes that this is mainly a countermeasure against President Lai Ching-te’s “Motherland Theory” in the National Day speech, but the CCP cannot afford to be too aggressive, as the scale of the exercises does not exceed those carried out after Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022.
Yu Zongji thinks that while the CCP can blockade Taiwan’s waters, Taiwan can counteract it. Any blockade is an act of war. If a war were to break out, Taiwan has the absolute capability to control all the ports along the Southeast coast of the mainland.
“It can only conduct such exercises during peacetime. Once the mainland has military ambitions towards Taiwan, it won’t easily be allowed through the southern and northern channels of Taiwan, including the waters of Miyako and the Bashi Channel. Even if it reaches the eastern part of Taiwan, there are no naval bases there. Therefore, with Taiwan, Japan, and the United States targeting support and supply lines, all of their fleets in the eastern waters of Taiwan will be in a desperate situation.”
Shortly after Lai Ching-te took office, in May, the CCP held a two-day “Joint Sword-2024A” training exercise around Taiwan, claiming it was a “punishment” for Lai Ching-te’s inauguration speech. Following Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech last week emphasizing the defense of sovereignty, the CCP once again responded vigorously.
On Sunday, the Eastern Theater Command of the CCP released a video stating that it is prepared for combat.
Yu Zongji pointed out that the Taiwan stock market reacted positively today. The CCP’s aggressive military actions to intimidate Taiwan have proven to be futile every time. Instead, due to their aggressive behaviors, their stock market prospects remain uncertain.
Despite the CCP’s military exercises, the Taiwan stock market closed up 73 points, while TSMC remained steady.
However, Yu Zongji noted that the CCP conducted exercises near Dongyin, Matsu but did not focus on Kinmen. Kinmen had previously allowed tourist groups from the mainland to visit, and Xiamen aims to develop shared economic and living areas with Kinmen. Therefore, behind their military actions, there is a strong united front intent. “It shows that Kinmen is showing improvement in relations with them, so there are no military exercises targeting Kinmen. Military actions are used as a means to achieve political goals.”
Su Zi-yun stated that whatever Taiwan says or does, Beijing tends to unilaterally interpret as “Taiwan independence.” The CCP has become a troublemaker for regional security, whether in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, or the South China Sea. The CCP’s actions have a highly negative impact on the healthy development of cross-strait relations.
Su Zi-yun mentioned that starting a war is highly disadvantageous for the CCP. Therefore, these exercises are mainly for psychological warfare. All of the CCP’s military exercises are 70% political and 30% military; they aim to influence the morale and sentiments of the Taiwanese people, which is their primary objective.
He concluded by quoting a phrase from the second U.S. President John Adams, “We have to learn politics and military science in our generation so that the next generation can freely learn literature and art.” This fully illustrates the importance of Taiwan protecting its democracy, freedom, and way of life.