Chinese Communist Party Amending Laws to Prepare for Taiwan Invasion? Expert: Very Unlikely

Recently, the Chinese Communist Party revised the “Drug Administration Law” to require the military to implement a system for the reserve of war-ready drugs. Last week, an American defense commentary website published an article claiming that intelligence personnel believe the Chinese Communist Party may launch a military attack on Taiwan six months later. Experts point out that the likelihood is extremely low, given the internal problems within the Chinese Communist military forces. Initiating a war would be difficult to gain advantages and could impact their regime stability.

The State Council and Central Military Commission of the CCP jointly issued the revised “Implementation Measures of the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law” on April 5th, covering various aspects of military drug research, procurement, reserve, supply, use, and supervision. The measures will take effect on June 1st, 2025.

According to the “Measures,” the military will implement a “war-ready drug reserve system” and establish a collaborative mechanism with the national drug reserve system to address emergency drug use needs during wars, disasters, and epidemics. Preparations made before the war for drug reserves are crucial to prevent shortages. Therefore, it is vital to establish drug management laws applicable to wartime conditions, suggesting the CCP is indeed preparing for potential conflicts.

On April 15th, Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Security, told Epoch Times that the quantity and management of drugs during combat are crucial. To avoid drug shortages, proper reserves must be made before the war. Therefore, enacting drug management laws applicable to wartime conditions is crucial, indicating the CCP’s readiness for potential warfare.

However, Wang Xiaowen, an assistant researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Security, believes that the CCP military’s war-ready drug storage system may be driven by the need to secure essential drugs due to US President Trump’s global high tariff policies. It cannot be assumed that an attack on Taiwan is imminent.

She said, “I do not believe Beijing will attack Taiwan prematurely. If they take action against Taiwan due to pressure from Trump, they might just fall into a trap set by the US. If they don’t defeat the provocation of the CCP now, when will they? Therefore, Beijing is unlikely to launch an attack on Taiwan easily.”

Assistant researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Security, Hong Zijie, stated that the CCP military has been preparing for potential conflicts, indicated by revisions to the “Drug Administration Law” and various military activities and exercises around the Taiwan Strait in recent years. Xi Jinping emphasizes strengthening military capabilities not only for Taiwan but also to consolidate his regime and promote the so-called “strong military dream,” suggesting a considerable gap between preparations for warfare and actual conflicts.

Recently, a US defense commentary website named “19FortyFive” reported that the US imposed a series of tariffs on China, aiming to stimulate fair trade. The Chinese Ambassador responded with vague threats, claiming China is ready for any “type of war” with the US.

Intelligence sources suggest that China may attempt a military assault on Taiwan in six months. The rationale is that senior CCP officials believe the US government may neither be willing nor able to stop China’s attack on Taiwan.

However, Hong Zijie believes China is not fully prepared at this stage. He stated, “The Strategic Support Force was reorganized last April and requires time to adjust. Combined with corruption issues within the military, the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan within six months is extremely low. If Xi Jinping were to attack Taiwan within six months, facing internal challenges within the CCP military, it would be difficult to gain advantages, posing high risks to regime stability. Therefore, a rational leader would unlikely make such a decision.”

On February 13th, USINDOPACOM Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo warned that based on the extensive Chinese military exercises, China could use military drills as cover to attack Taiwan soon. He emphasized China’s increasingly aggressive activities around Taiwan and the difficulty in distinguishing between large-scale drills and actual preparatory actions for an attack. He highlighted the necessity for the US to take rapid actions to bridge the crucial gap between ideals and realities by increasing the quantity of weapons in the Indo-Pacific region.

According to “19FortyFive,” Chuck DeVore, a retired US Army Colonel and former California legislator, analyzed three scenarios of a Chinese attack on Taiwan: long-term blockade, lightning seizure, and full-scale war. He mentioned potential actions such as simultaneous attacks on Taiwan and US bases in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines, as well as infiltrating over 20,000 Chinese men into the US via Mexico to disrupt American border and infrastructure.

Shen Mingshi stated that similar claims have been made in the past, but the likelihood of a lightning war has decreased. Drawing from experiences in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, troop movements can be detected through various reconnaissance methods, reducing the feasibility of quick surprise attacks. He suggested that the likelihood of short-duration conflicts has gradually reduced.

He noted that the possibility of prolonged conflicts has increased, with the CCP establishing war mobilization offices in each province to avoid Western sanctions. Measures include early gold reserves, directing officials to transfer overseas assets, or bring foreign deposits back to China, to prevent sanctions.

Regarding illegal immigration and collaboration with Mexican cartels, Shen Mingshi mentioned that the CCP has engaged in such activities before. He stated, “China is already using cartels to interfere in elections and even infiltrate the military to encourage desertion before battle, utilizing cartels or the Fifth Column for internal sabotage. This has happened before in China.”

Wang Xiaowen pointed out that a long-term blockade would incur high costs and international resistance, especially obstructing energy supplies to Japan and South Korea, which would likely not be accepted. As for a lightning attack on Taiwan, she raised practical issues, questioning how the CCP would govern a heavily bombarded Taiwan or one with severe operational damages and whether they are prepared to face a prolonged guerrilla warfare against the Taiwanese.

If the CCP were to simultaneously attack Taiwan and allied countries, Wang Xiaowen analyzed that continuous missile launches might be the only option, but this would provoke retaliatory actions from the opposing countries, potentially leading to severe damages in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. In conclusion, she highlighted that strategic speculations should only be considered so far without necessary practical elements to be viable. Thus, various simulations or speculations should be taken with caution.