According to data released by the Zhongzhishu Research Institute on January 2, the prices of second-hand homes in China’s top 100 cities have been continuously decreasing for 32 consecutive months. In 2024 alone, there was a cumulative decrease of 7.26%, representing a 3.73 percentage point increase in the cumulative decline compared to 2023.
Reported by Caixin on January 2, the Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, a market research organization, also recently released a report stating that in 2024, the prices of second-hand homes in the top 100 cities experienced the largest decline in recent years. In December 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in the 100 key cities was 14,166 yuan per square meter, which is 4.18% lower than the average price in 2018.
In reality, the actual decline in housing prices is much greater than the market average. Ding Zuyu, Executive Director of the E-House Real Estate Research Institute and Chairman of the Keppel Group, stated at the 2024 annual conference held on December 31 last year that in the fourth quarter of 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in Guorui Ecology City, Langfang, Hebei, dropped by 83% from its historical peak in 2017. In Nantong, Jiangsu, the average price of second-hand residential properties in the Evergrande Venice development dropped by 71% from its historical peak in 2022. In Huizhou, Guangdong, the average price of second-hand residential properties in the Country Garden Ten-Mile Silver Beach dropped by 69% from its historical peak in 2021.
Ding Zuyu believes that since the second half of 2021 when the real estate industry entered a downturn, the decline in second-hand housing prices has been much greater than that of new houses. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China on housing prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities, current new home prices have roughly returned to the level of 2019, while second-hand home prices have reverted to the level of 2017.
Analyst Meng Zengxin from the Zhongzhishu Research Institute explained, “Because second-hand homes are owned by individuals, price adjustments are more flexible compared to new homes.” For sellers, “the sale of a house could determine the life or death of their business, so they are willing to accept any price as long as there is a time limit for the transaction.”
The combination of price decreases and immediate availability has led to limited demand for housing entering the second-hand market. In 2024, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities monitored by Keppel Group reached a historical high of 2.3 billion square meters. In contrast, the new housing market showed a significant decrease, with the transaction volume of new residential properties in the top 100 cities in 2024 dropping by about 19% year-on-year.
Meng Zengxin stated that although in 2024 the second-hand housing market showed signs of trading quantity for price, a comprehensive halt in the decline of second-hand house prices will still require more time. He predicts that in 2025, there will still be downward pressure on second-hand housing prices.