Recent surveys conducted by two well-known online recruitment platforms in China, Zhaopin and 51job, revealed a significant increase in the number of people who did not receive their year-end bonuses in 2024. The percentage of individuals not receiving year-end bonuses jumped from 20% in 2023 to at least 60% in 2024, while those who did receive bonuses saw a decrease of over 10% in the bonus amount. Analysts in the financial sector have been dissecting the reasons behind these trends.
In 2024, the Chinese economy continued to struggle, with persistently low consumer price index and a producer price index that had been declining for over two years, signaling economic challenges ahead. Recently released data on China’s GDP growth for 2024 showed a modest 5% increase. However, the lackluster economic performance left many underwhelmed, especially as the New Year approached. A report on workplace satisfaction for 2024 published by Zhaopin indicated that only 40% of employees expected to receive year-end bonuses, with an average bonus amount of 6,091 yuan.
A survey conducted by Phoenix Weekly in January 2025 revealed that only 20% of the over 600 respondents expected to receive year-end bonuses, a figure lower than what was indicated in Zhaopin’s survey results. In contrast, data from 51job’s 2023 year-end bonus report showed that nearly 80% of individuals received bonuses in the previous year, with an average bonus of 6,950 yuan.
The combined findings from these reports highlighted a stark reality: the number of employees missing out on year-end bonuses had surged to at least 60%, while the bonus amounts for recipients had decreased by 12%.
As the Chinese Lunar New Year, one of the country’s most significant annual holidays, approached, government agencies, businesses, and enterprises typically disburse year-end bonuses around this time. One key significance of year-end bonuses lies in their role as a barometer of a company’s competitiveness and attractiveness. Throughout January, discussions surrounding year-end bonuses on social media platforms in China have intensified, reflecting the bonuses’ importance in evaluating job stability and prospects for the coming year.
Despite official claims of a 5% GDP growth in China for 2024, the doubling of individuals not receiving year-end bonuses from the previous year and the reduced bonus amounts for recipients raise questions about the discrepancy in economic realities.
According to analyses by experts like “Huoxing Macro,” the disparities can be attributed to the methods used to calculate GDP growth and income. While GDP growth rates are measured using fixed prices, business profits and personal incomes are evaluated at current prices, leading to discrepancies in perceived economic performance.
In 2024, based on the GDP increase of 5%, the total value of goods produced across three sectors had risen compared to the previous year. However, due to oversupply resulting from continued investments, prices had fallen. Consequently, although the comparable GDP growth stood at 5%, the actual GDP growth at current prices was 4.2%, due to a 0.8% reduction in the GDP deflator index. This decline in prices affected various sectors, including agriculture, construction, real estate, and services.
Furthermore, from the perspective of fiscal and corporate incomes, the income-focused economic perspective differs significantly from the production-focused one. In 2024, total tax revenue in China decreased by 3.4%, while non-tax revenues garnered from confiscation penalties surged by 25.5%. These factors led to a 2% decline in overall public fiscal revenues.
As the deadline for listed companies to disclose their 2024 annual reports approached, early indications showed a mixed performance, with only one-third of the companies reporting profit increases and the remainder either predicting losses or stagnant profits.
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the country’s economic performance in 2024, claiming a 5% GDP growth that exceeded 130 trillion yuan for the first time. However, many Chinese citizens expressed disbelief in these figures, questioning how the GDP could grow by 5% when most indicators fell short of that mark. Discussions on social media platforms reflected growing skepticism towards official economic data and the realities experienced by the workforce and businesses in China.