China’s employment faces toughest year as Caixin PMI employment drops for six consecutive months

According to the work report of the Chinese State Council during the “Two Sessions” (the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), the urban survey unemployment rate has fluctuated between 5.1% and 5.5% over the past five years, indicating a seemingly stable employment situation. However, feedback from the public and economic data shows that unemployment has been widespread in recent years. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has seen a continuous decline in employment levels for six months. In 2025, the number of college graduates will exceed that of 2024, marking another challenging year for employment.

Over the last five years, the urban survey unemployment rate in China ranged from 5.1% to 5.5% annually from 2020 to 2024. However, it is important to note that the Chinese authorities have significantly narrowed the scope of covered unemployed persons. Those working for one hour or more are not considered unemployed. Additionally, university students, rural farmers, and those long-term unemployed and not seeking employment are not included in the unemployment statistics.

Despite the seemingly stable unemployment rate between 5.1% and 5.5% over the past five years, it is evident from online feedback that white-collar and blue-collar workers are facing significant unemployment challenges.

Online users have reported instances of mass unemployment, with individuals struggling to find job opportunities even after multiple attempts. Reports from job seekers indicate long queues outside factories with only limited job openings, leaving many feeling hopeless and stranded.

In Hangzhou, the unemployment rate is said to have surpassed one million, leading to intense competition among professions like online ride-hailing drivers and food delivery workers. Businesses across various sectors are experiencing a severe downturn, with numerous clothing stores closing down due to poor sales.

The economic data in China reflects a grim situation, with a continuous decline in employment levels in the manufacturing sector. Official statistics from the Chinese government show a decrease of 7.833 million employees in foreign-invested enterprises, including those from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan over a five-year period.

The employment landscape for Chinese graduates is particularly challenging, with only 55.5% of university graduates securing employment in 2024. The term “graduation equals unemployment” is not just a joke but a harsh reality for many Chinese university students.

In 2024, China saw 11.79 million college graduates, marking it as one of the most challenging job markets. However, the situation worsened in 2025, with an estimated 12.22 million college graduates entering the workforce, making it even more difficult for graduates to find employment.

There have been reports of highly educated individuals, including those with prestigious undergraduate and postgraduate degrees, facing difficulties in landing secure and well-paying jobs. The job market appears highly competitive, leaving many skilled professionals with limited opportunities for advancement.

Job seekers have expressed frustration with the rigorous selection processes employed by companies, where even highly qualified applicants are faced with daunting challenges during recruitment exams and interviews.

The rebranding of unemployment certificates as “employment and entrepreneurship certificates” has sparked debates about the government’s approach in handling post-pandemic unemployment challenges, indicating a shift towards political strategies to address public discontent.

Individuals over the age of 40 are finding it increasingly difficult to secure employment opportunities, a stark realization that age has become a significant factor in determining job placements. This age-related discrimination has left many experienced workers struggling to compete with younger, less-experienced candidates.

The job market discrimination based on age has left numerous middle-aged individuals feeling marginalized, with many resorting to lower-paying jobs in sectors like food delivery, courier services, cleaning, security, and manual labor due to limited options available in their field of expertise.