China’s birth rate has plummeted sharply, which is having a profound impact on the education system. Across the country, kindergartens and primary schools are facing closures and a shortage of students, leading to a stagnation in teacher recruitment. The once stable “iron rice bowl” teaching positions are now facing increasing risks of instability.
In July 2025, the Education Bureau of Ezhou City in Hubei Province announced the latest teacher recruitment plan, specifying a halt to the recruitment of primary school teachers for the entire year, with the total number of primary and secondary school teachers in the city capped at 8,850. The announcement stated that this policy aims to address the continuous decline in the school-age population.
Similar tightening of recruitment is not limited to Hubei. As early as March of this year, Wannian County in Jiangxi Province announced the cessation of recruitment of English teachers. Jinxian County in Nanchang City also declared a suspension of teacher recruitment starting in 2025. Numerous provinces such as Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have also begun pilot programs and reductions.
A substitute primary school English teacher, Wang Li (pseudonym), told Epoch Times that the competition in the teaching industry is intense. Having failed to secure a permanent teaching position, she recently resigned and is preparing to explore other career paths.
Wang Li stated that even for teachers with permanent positions, stability is no longer guaranteed. “Due to the declining number of students, substitute teachers are gradually being phased out, and now primary schools are no longer recruiting permanent teachers. We are starting to face elimination based on performance.”
Wang Li considered opening an English tutoring class, but after market research, she found that the English tutoring market is saturated. Coupled with an increasing number of students using AI for learning, enrollment difficulties are extremely high, leading her to eventually abandon the idea.
Wang Li’s situation is not unique, as the entire education training industry is facing the dilemma of shrinking student sources and forced closures.
According to a review by “Financial Plain Language” of the number of kindergartens and primary schools and the number of students enrolled nationwide in 2023, Heilongjiang province witnessed the largest population decrease. Over a decade from 2013 to 2022, more than 1,900 primary schools were closed in the province. Jilin saw over 2,600 primary schools closed, while Liaoning had over 2,200 closed.
In the past 12 years, the combined number of primary school students in the three northeastern provinces decreased by 1.27 million. In 2023 alone, China saw the closure of 5,600 primary schools.
Despite a significant decrease in student population and school closures, the number of teachers has continued to increase. From 2013 to 2023, the total number of full-time teachers in primary and secondary schools nationwide rose from 9.06 million to 10.74 million.
According to the “2024 National Educational Development Statistics Bulletin,” in 2024, there were 253,300 kindergartens, a decrease of 21,100 compared to the previous year. From 2020 to 2024, the number of children enrolled in kindergartens decreased by 12.34 million, a 25.6% decrease.
Zhang Jing (pseudonym), a graduate in early childhood education, has been unable to secure a job at a kindergarten despite graduating three years ago. Some of her classmates are pursuing further studies, changing careers, or are currently unemployed. Zhang Jing stated, “There are too few newborns, and kindergartens are struggling to operate.”
The wave of closures and student shortages are closely linked to the continuous decline in the number of newborns.
2016 saw a peak in newborn births, reaching 17.85 million, but by 2023, this number had dropped to 9.02 million, nearly halving.
Veteran teacher Chen acknowledged that the rapid decline in the birth rate has led to a continuous decrease in the number of students, resulting in an oversupply of teachers. Teacher salaries are mainly supported by local finances, which are also severely in deficit. Therefore, the teaching industry will undergo structural adjustments, downsizing or redeployment.
As the stage for college entrance examination enrollment approaches, professionals are advising aspiring teachers to refer to local birth rate data from recent years. If the number of newborns is significantly lower than the number of college entrance exam candidates, it signifies a decreasing student population, resulting in a reduction in teaching positions and higher job risks for teacher graduates.
The ongoing decline in birth rates is reshaping China’s education landscape. Classrooms are seeing fewer students, while teaching positions and structures are being adjusted. And all of this is only just beginning.