How Close Are We to a “Nuclear Winter”? The latest adjustment of the Doomsday Clock by atomic scientists serves as a stark warning that the conflict-ridden and turbulent era is pushing the world closer to the brink of nuclear war.
On January 28, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to midnight to 89 seconds, highlighting it as the closest to a nuclear disaster. The report indicated that in 2024, humanity drew nearer to catastrophe, and this worrisome trend persists. Despite clear signs of danger, world leaders and societies have failed to take necessary measures to change or halt the dangerous development.
Established in 1945, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists introduced the Doomsday Clock in 1947, counting down to midnight to symbolize the time remaining until a global catastrophe caused by nuclear threats. The Doomsday Clock has become a widely recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to human-induced disasters.
One of the scientists’ major concerns as humanity edges closer to nuclear peril is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict now in its third year. The conflict shows no sign of resolution and poses an escalating risk of turning into a nuclear confrontation.
President Zelensky of Ukraine has suggested that Ukraine should conditionally acquire nuclear weapons. During an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan on February 4, Zelensky proposed that if the U.S. was not prepared to allow Ukraine to join NATO, then the U.S. should provide alternative security guarantees to Ukraine, including nuclear weapons. He questioned whether the West could deter Russia’s nuclear weapons and emphasized the need for true security measures.
However, Trump’s Ukraine and Russia special envoy Keith Kellogg rejected Zelensky’s idea. In an interview on February 6, Kellogg stated that Ukraine had minimal chances of reclaiming its nuclear status and emphasized the impracticality of such a proposal.
Zelensky’s stance in an interview with Italian journalist Cecilia Sali on January 8 differed from his subsequent statements. He emphasized the need for genuine security instead of nuclear weapons, suggesting that Ukraine relinquished nuclear arms as part of a deal that did not provide true security.
In 1991, Ukraine possessed a significant arsenal of Soviet-era nuclear weapons, which it later relinquished by signing the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in exchange for full independence. The treaty, signed by the U.S., Russia, and the U.K., required Ukraine to transfer all nuclear weapons to Russia by June 1996.
The violation by Russia, among other signatories, of the Budapest Memorandum by threatening or using force against Ukraine’s territorial integrity or political independence, raises concerns about international agreements and the erosion of security norms.
Ukraine’s decision to disarm nuclear weapons aimed to establish itself as an independent sovereign state and prevent a proliferation of nuclear states following the Soviet Union’s collapse. By joining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear state, Ukraine demonstrated its commitment to nuclear disarmament.
Following the eruption of war in 2022, Ukraine’s aspiration to repossess nuclear weapons diminished, given the altered strategic landscape and the limited deterrent effect such arsenal would provide against Russia’s aggression.
The feasibility of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons is not solely a technical challenge but also hinges on political, diplomatic, and strategic considerations. Without U.S. and Western support, Ukraine refrains from pursuing independent nuclear development.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding nuclear proliferation intensify with countries like China, Russia, and North Korea expanding their nuclear stockpiles. The U.S. focuses on modernizing existing weapons while the erosion of non-proliferation efforts raises concerns about regional conflicts prompting non-nuclear states to contemplate nuclear arms, jeopardizing global security.
The symbolic Doomsday Clock underscores the gravity of nuclear threats, underscoring the collective responsibility of humanity to prevent the worst from happening.