In the United States, the Supreme Court, with nine justices, each justice’s change could potentially influence the future direction of the country. After the presidential election, there is speculation surrounding whether there will be any personnel changes among the justices, drawing attention from the public.
As of now, three justices on the U.S. Supreme Court are over 70 years old. They include two conservative justices – 76-year-old Clarence Thomas and 74-year-old Samuel Anthony Alito Jr., as well as one liberal justice – 70-year-old Sonia Maria Sotomayor.
After winning the presidential election, there have been rumors that the two senior conservative justices may consider retiring to make way for younger successors.
Regarding the question of whether conservative justices might retire prematurely, a senior U.S. media person, Fang Wei, told Dajiyuan on November 12: It is possible. Justices indeed have a tradition or consciousness that after they retire, they hope to pass the baton to a younger generation of justices with similar ideologies. If Trump had not been elected president, they apparently wouldn’t have been as likely to consider this option, but now that Trump has been elected, the likelihood of this happening has significantly increased.
The U.S. Constitution stipulates that justices can serve for life unless they choose to retire, resign, or are impeached and convicted for crimes or misconduct. Fang Wei said whether justices will retire early primarily depends on their own evaluations.
Someone close to Justice Alito recently told the media that Alito has no plans to retire. This person said that the idea of retiring for political reasons does not align with his character.
Liberal Justice Sotomayor is also facing pressure to resign due to her Type 1 diabetes. Some liberal activists are concerned that if she were to pass away during Trump’s new term, she would likely be replaced by conservative justices. Therefore, they hope to confirm a successor while the Democrats still control the White House and the Senate.
Bakari Sellers, a former Democratic member of the South Carolina House of Representatives for eight years, posted on social media on November 11, stating that Sotomayor needs to resign. This would limit the possibility of Trump gaining a 7:2 advantage in the Supreme Court. Currently, the ratio of conservative to liberal justices on the Supreme Court is 6:3.
This concern is not without precedent. In September 2020, liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away just 46 days before the presidential election as Trump’s first term was coming to an end. Trump swiftly nominated conservative Amy Vivian Coney Barrett to become a justice, shifting the ratio of justices from 5:4 to 6:3 in favor of conservatives.
Ginsburg had been advised multiple times to retire while the Democrats controlled the White House and the Senate to allow President Obama to nominate a liberal successor, but she had refused.
For almost 250 years since the founding of the United States, there has never been an Asian American Supreme Court justice.
Recently, several judges have emerged as potential nominees for the Supreme Court. Among them is a Taiwanese-born individual.
In September of this year, New York University law professor Stephen Choi and University of Virginia law professor Mitu Gulati published an in-depth study on the efficiency and impact of federal judges, with nine of the top ten ranked judges being appointed during Trump’s first term in office.
Choi and Gulati mentioned three individuals frequently discussed as potential nominees in media reports: Lawrence VanDyke, James Ho, and Stuart Kyle Duncan.
James Ho, born in Taipei in 1973, currently serves on the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in Texas and holds conservative views.
Choi and Gulati wrote, “James Ho stands out in two aspects: not only is he mentioned by more people, but he also seems to deliberately seek societal attention. Since becoming a federal judge, he has written a series of contentious dissents and concurrences on hot-button sensitive issues such as abortion, religion, and gun rights.”
Ho previously clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas and has served as a partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP in Dallas, Texas, as well as an adjunct professor at the University of Texas Law School, demonstrating a deep understanding of constitutional arguments.
The conservative Federalist Society website introduces Ho, highlighting his victories in numerous lawsuits, including three cases at the U.S. Supreme Court that had significant impacts.
The Federalist Society website states that Ho served as the Solicitor General of Texas and was the “only state Solicitor General to receive an invitation to express state legal opinions at the U.S. Supreme Court.”
Ho currently resides in Dallas with his wife and their twins.
In an interview with CNN, Bakari Sellers suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris entering the Supreme Court after her defeat in the election would give her a new role while securing a long-term liberal seat.
Sellers also suggested this nomination could happen quickly before Trump assumes office. “I think this is actually a really good plan. I think this is something that should happen,” he said.
Although Kamala Harris had served as a prosecutor in the San Francisco Bay Area and as California’s Attorney General, she lacks judicial experience. However, this scenario is not unprecedented in the history of the high court. Justice Elena Kagan, nominated by former President Obama, also had never been a judge.
In theory, the president can nominate any qualified U.S. citizen to be a Supreme Court justice. However, nominating a sitting vice president to the Supreme Court has no precedent in U.S. history, and the political implications and constitutional challenges it could bring are difficult to gauge.
However, if liberal Justice Sotomayor does not have plans to retire early, the likelihood of Kamala Harris being nominated would significantly decrease.