Amid the global supply chain constraints, the Chinese government’s restriction on its airlines from purchasing Boeing aircraft may unexpectedly aid in the expansion of the Indian aviation industry.
According to a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday (April 15), Beijing has instructed Chinese airlines to halt receiving Boeing aircraft and cease procurement of aircraft parts and equipment from US companies. China Southern Airlines has also announced the suspension of its planned Boeing aircraft sales program due to potential impacts from the US-China trade war. Earlier, the US imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, while Beijing retaliated with a 125% tariff.
The three major Chinese airlines – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines – were originally scheduled to receive a total of 179 Boeing aircraft between 2025 and 2027, with 45, 53, and 81 aircraft respectively, including various models.
At the same time, several Indian airlines have also placed orders for the same models of 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Industry experts suggest that some aircraft originally intended for delivery to China could be redirected to India.
According to a report by Nikkei, Mark Martin, CEO of aviation consulting firm Martin Consulting, stated: “The Indian market is in high demand for aircraft, with airlines in urgent need of deliveries. Therefore, redirecting these aircraft to the Indian market is a reasonable possibility.”
Satyendra Pandey, partner at aviation consulting firm AT-TV, also noted, “The Indian market has strong demand and reallocation could happen in various scenarios.”
In fact, this is not the first time Boeing has redirected “white tails” – aircraft produced for other customers – to India. Last year, India’s Air India Express, a subsidiary of Air India, received 25 white tail Boeing 737 MAX aircraft and is expected to receive more in the future.
The Indian aviation market is rapidly expanding. Since 2020, local airlines including IndiGo have collectively ordered over 1,300 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. Boeing mentioned that since 2021, Indian airlines and the low-cost carrier Akasa Air have placed orders for a total of 446 aircraft, half of Boeing’s total orders in Central Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia markets. Currently, Boeing has 178 aircraft pending delivery to Indian airlines, with another 199 awaiting delivery to Akasa Air.
According to Economic Daily, industry insiders have stated that Boeing’s production line in Seattle, originally designated for Chinese airlines, is currently idle. This situation presents a greater opportunity for Air India Express and Akasa Air to acquire additional fleets.
While Chinese airlines may seek to increase Airbus capacity to fill the Boeing gap, Airbus’s A320 production line is already at full capacity, with deliveries still constrained by supply bottlenecks.
On the other hand, the Chinese government has also ordered airlines to halt procurement of aircraft components from the US. Though aerospace industry sources have not yet received a comprehensive ban notice, if Beijing completely stops importing critical components, it could impact fleet maintenance and operations, including the indigenous C919 aircraft. Analyst Ron Epstein from Bank of America pointed out, “If China halts buying US aircraft components, the C919 project could stall and even face termination risks.”