Canton Fair opens amid China-US trade war, reduced attendance brings pessimism in industry.

Amid the shadow of the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, the 137th China Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, has opened. However, there is a prevailing sense of pessimism in the industry, with concerns that the trade show might turn into a domestic exhibition rather than an export-oriented one. Many businesses have expressed that they are participating in the fair just to maintain visibility, with little hope of developing new customers, all depending on “luck.”

The Canton Fair, as a national-level key foreign trade platform, is often referred to as the barometer of China’s foreign trade. It is held twice a year in Guangzhou, in the spring and autumn. This edition of the Canton Fair is dubbed as the “life-and-death moment for the world’s factory.”

Industry insiders revealed that the government puts a lot of effort into inviting foreign buyers each year and has implemented many facilitative measures specifically for the Canton Fair, such as allowing free entry for foreign procurement buyers.

Online feedback from businesses indicates that in recent years, this major trade show in the foreign trade industry has lost its previous momentum. Some businesses mentioned, “It has been 5 years since we last saw European and American clients.” Others stated, “We rarely develop new overseas customers at the Canton Fair, there are mostly domestic counterparts.” Another remarked, “After attending the fair for 16 years, the number of business cards received last time was half of what it used to be, and post-pandemic, we have felt a chill, feeling half as optimistic as before.”

Especially this year, under the impact of the trade war and with the U.S. imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, many are pessimistic about the future of foreign trade and have doubts about the Canton Fair, fearing it might turn into a large-scale domestic event. Reporters observed some businesses aggressively promoting a cooking pot’s performance live on the first day while simultaneously conducting online sales.

On online platforms, many businesses are debating whether it is still worthwhile to attend the Canton Fair. If the booth is allocated through government application, the price for a standard booth ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of Chinese yuan, while second-hand booths are being resold for over a hundred thousand yuan.

Some voices on social media platforms like Little Red Book profess, “Our company doesn’t participate in the Canton Fair, only in industry-specific exhibitions.” Another added, “Selling booths at the Canton Fair is now more profitable than selling products.” And a different perspective, “Participation has been lackluster for over a decade! Companies that can still afford to participate are only doing it for advertising purposes, to show that they are still in business.” There are also warnings, “The Canton Fair is the epitome of the internal competition in China’s foreign trade. Some hardcore factories can continue to thrive, but ordinary enterprises should beware.”

A furniture business owner from Fujian province shared with reporters that the economic downturn in recent years has hit hard. Participating in different trade shows, their traditional export model targeting the European and American markets has been severely impacted by the downturn in foreign trade, preparing themselves for tough times ahead.

“Our clients don’t visit our factories, so we can only catch them at trade shows. With luck, we can showcase a few new products to them, proving that we are still surviving, and with even better luck, discover new customers,” the owner remarked. Despite the somewhat affordable booth fees currently, they persist in participating as Canton Fair booths are not easy to secure, with non-attendance for a year or two resulting in forfeiture.

A business owner from Shenzhen shared a video online predicting the outcomes of the Canton Fair. He voiced, “This year is definitely worse than last year, even though last year wasn’t good, this year will be worse” due to the uncertainty caused by two-thirds of the world being affected by the U.S. tariff issues.

He advised against attending the fair if the target market is in Europe or the United States, as interest from these regions towards the Canton Fair is low. However, for businesses targeting the Belt and Road Initiative countries like Russia, Southeast Asia, and the Commonwealth of Independent States, participation could be beneficial, as long as the products are both good and cost-effective.

Feedback from the first day of the fair has sparked inquiries online about the attendance and clientele, with responses indicating moderate foot traffic but also concerns about the lack of visitors from certain categories.

A female worker from a heavy machinery factory in Liaoning participating in the fair mentioned, “There are fewer people now, don’t know if it will increase tomorrow, but the customers are fewer compared to last year.”

Official figures provided for this Canton Fair show that over 30,000 companies have participated, with around 1,600 booths dedicated to imports. As of April 8th, nearly 170,000 foreign buyers have pre-registered, with BRI countries accounting for 72% and BRICS countries for 27.4%. Middle Eastern countries constitute 14.3%, while European and American countries make up 10.5% of the registered buyers.

But according to a middleman who collects exhibitor data, the latest exhibitor list shows that there are around 24,700 domestic companies participating, mostly factories. He mentioned, “The data on the number of buyers will be available after the event.”

A staff member from a lighting equipment factory in Zhongshan City, Guangdong province, shared that there were relatively more customers from Ukraine, Russia, and a few African American attendees, but customers from countries like Germany, France, and the U.S. were notably absent. The first day saw fewer visitors in the morning, with expectations of more in the following days.

They have been participating in the fair for the past two years, with a booth size of 3×3 square meters costing around 70,000 to 90,000 RMB, depending on the location. Last year, they secured contracts worth hundreds of thousands, which helped cover their expenses. This year, they aim for small-scale partnerships, focusing on attracting customers rather than immediate sales. If there’s a mutual interest, they arrange for further discussions at the office or factory.

Mainly producing solar street lights and control lights, their exports reach markets in Central and South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Despite not feeling the direct impact of tariffs currently, the factory representative believes it will eventually affect them, as a significant portion of their products are eventually sold to the U.S. They noted that companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen mainly export to the U.S.