Following the effective ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Hamas has submitted a list of Israeli hostages to be released and freed three Israeli female hostages. The peace process in the Middle East seems to be entering a new phase.
After transferring three Israeli hostages to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces sent the hostages to medical facilities in southern Israel for further health checks. Subsequently, on January 19, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners as part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. Israel is expected to release 1,904 Palestinian prisoners in total during the first stage of the ceasefire. The Israeli army has released a list of the 1,904 prisoners to be released, including 67 Palestinian prisoners serving sentences for terrorism and murder. These prisoners are mostly members of Palestinian militia groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Fatah, who have been involved in attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers.
On January 19, the Israeli Defense Forces began withdrawing from the Gaza Strip. Geolocation videos show that the Israeli Defense Forces have withdrawn from parts of northern, central, and southern Rafah in the Gaza Strip and deployed along the border of the designated buffer zone in the northeast of the Gaza Strip.
As the Israeli Defense Forces withdraw from the southern and central parts of the Gaza Strip, residents of Gaza have begun returning to these areas from the northern part of the Gaza Strip. The first part of the ceasefire agreement requires the Israeli Defense Forces to assist Palestinian civilians in returning to their homes in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
An Arabic spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces issued warnings to Gaza residents, advising them not to approach the Israeli troops near the Nazarim Corridor, the Philadelphi Corridor, and the border crossings near Rafah.
The Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson added that these areas remain highly dangerous due to the Israeli Defense Forces’ activities. They instructed Gaza residents not to approach the designated buffer zone along the northern and eastern borders of the Gaza Strip.
According to Hamas-controlled media office reports, on January 19, Hamas deployed “thousands of fighters to maintain security and order” in the Gaza Strip. Hamas began deploying police forces in the Gaza Strip. Videos on social media show Hamas armed personnel riding pickups entering Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. While some Hamas armed elements remain in parts of the Gaza Strip, it does not necessarily mean that Hamas has reestablished its military organization in the Gaza Strip.
Analyses from the Institute for War Studies suggest that the Israeli Defense Forces do not need to kill every Hamas armed element to dismantle Hamas’ military organization. The presence of these armed groups does not necessarily mean they are part of an organized military force with a clear chain of command. Hamas armed elements currently operate in the form of small combat groups rather than the organized military units Hamas had in the early stages of the war.
On January 18, Hamas met with leaders of several Palestinian political and radical organizations in Doha, Qatar, to discuss post-war governance issues in the Gaza Strip. Ziyad al-Nakhalah, the Secretary-General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Jamil Mazhar, the Deputy Secretary-General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and representatives from other Palestinian factions attended the meeting. In July 2024, Palestinian factions emphasized in the Beijing Declaration the need for “comprehensive” management of the Gaza Strip, calling for the establishment of a “interim national unity government” to manage the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Representatives from Fatah did not attend the meeting.
The Israeli Central Command of the Defense Forces announced plans to deploy new forces to the West Bank to prevent and counter attacks by Palestinian militias. As part of the ceasefire and hostage agreement, Israel will release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, prompting the Israeli Defense Forces to deploy new forces.
The Central Command of the Israeli Defense Forces emphasized that despite the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Hamas may attempt to launch attacks in the West Bank. Therefore, the Israeli Defense Forces will increase the number of road checkpoints. The 89th Commando Brigade (Egoz Unit) of the Israeli Defense Forces will reinforce the Central Command and carry out operations in the West Bank. The 89th Commando Brigade, the 90th Infantry Battalion, and seven other units will continue to be deployed throughout the region. Specifically, the 90th Infantry Battalion specializes in urban combat and is under the command of the Central Command of the Israeli Defense Forces.
On January 20, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar stated that Israel does not rule out the possibility of the Palestinian Authority playing a role in post-war governance in Gaza, but this would require a profound reform process within the Authority.
Sa’ar made these remarks during a joint press conference with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. He outlined three key changes that Israel demands from the Palestinian Authority. Sa’ar stated that the Palestinian Authority must end the “pay-for-slay” policy. This policy involves the PA providing continuous payments and other rewards to individuals and their families who engage in attacks, including acts of terrorism, against Israel and the West Bank. Sa’ar emphasized that the Palestinian Authority must stop educating children with hatred, inciting against Israel, and engaging in legal warfare against Israel.
Sa’ar mentioned that if the Palestinian Authority meets these conditions, resolves these issues, and changes its stance, it would lead to a different Authority, paving the way for serious discussions on a better future for both nations. He added, “Sadly, they have continuously refused to do so. They have not only failed to bring peace but have also compromised our security. Therefore, we must be very cautious, prioritizing the safety of our citizens, and we will always be open to finding those willing to build a better future with us.”
Tajani stated that Italy believes the Palestinian Authority is the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people but must change course. He declared that he would strongly advocate for the Palestinian Authority to have more involvement in this reform process and undergo internal reforms.
However, senior Israeli government officials are not optimistic about the prospect of achieving peace in Gaza. Due to right-wing parties like the Jewish Power Party and several others withdrawing from the cabinet over the Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will seek to fill three vacant cabinet minister positions, including Minister of Public Security, Minister of Heritage and Culture, and Minister for Negev, Galilee, and National Resilience.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Jewish Power Party, resigned from the position of Minister of Public Security last week due to the agreement reached with Hamas on the Gaza ceasefire. Additionally, the Religious Zionism Party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also opposed the ceasefire. While Smotrich has not resigned yet, the Religious Zionism Party stated that if Israel does not resume the war on Gaza after the first phase of agreements, the party will also withdraw from the coalition government.
Smotrich expressed on the Israeli Army Radio, “If the government doesn’t restart the war, leading to (us) taking over and ruling the entire Gaza Strip, then I will overturn the government.” However, Smotrich mentioned that he would not resign like Ben-Gvir did but continue in the government to mitigate the damage caused by the ceasefire. He stated on Facebook that the only way to compensate for this damage and transform this agreement into a tactical loss in the battle rather than a strategic failure in the war would be to resume the conflict until Hamas is dismantled.
Should Hamas be willing to continue playing a role in the post-Gaza peace process or exert any political and military influence moving forward, it is likely to face a new round of military strikes from the Israeli army. The vast majority of the Israeli government, including Netanyahu, hold a unified stance on ultimately eradicating Hamas’s presence in Gaza.