Before the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, there have been new rumors about changes in personnel at the Zhongnanhai leadership compound. Independent commentator Cai Shenkun, known for revealing insider information from the officialdom, has disclosed that Cai Qi, the Director of the General Office of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, may be replaced due to health issues. Cai Shenkun analyzed several possible candidates to replace Cai Qi, with Wang Xiaohong being suggested as the most likely choice. Some scholars have expressed concerns that if Wang Xiaohong takes over from Cai Qi, internal power struggles within the CPC could become more intense.
Cai Shenkun stated on February 28 during a self-media program that according to Beijing’s official circles, Xi Jinping is currently looking for a new Director for the General Office of the CPC Central Committee. Due to being close to 70 years old (born in December 1955) and experiencing severe health problems from prolonged nights and high stress, Cai Qi’s continuation as the Director could pose a risk to his life. It is said that Cai Qi made mistakes during his time in South Africa and has been falling ill repeatedly, with Xi Jinping not accompanying him on inspections.
Cai Shenkun mentioned that the Director of the General Office is crucial and has a say in Xi Jinping’s life or death. Cai Shenkun analyzed several potential candidates for the position, with the current front-runner reportedly being Wang Xiaohong, the Minister of Public Security, as he is considered one of Xi’s closest confidants. However, despite Wang Xiaohong being only two years younger than Cai Qi, it remains uncertain whether he can handle the responsibilities, especially considering his lack of experience in meticulous secretarial work, which might lead to comedic situations during Xi’s official visits.
Another potential candidate is Ma Xingrui. At the end of 2023, there were rumors of Ma Xingrui being transferred to the Director position of the General Office. Cai Shenkun mentioned that Ma Xingrui’s policies implemented in Xinjiang align with Xi’s stability maintenance requirements, and he lacks clear factional backgrounds. However, Ma Xingrui has limited experience in public security and at the General Office system, but his special hometown relationship with Peng Liyuan could be an advantage.
Additionally, Chen Wenqing, Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, is younger than Wang Xiaohong and comes from a national security background. Cai Shenkun believes that if Xi aims to enhance security controls, Chen Wenqing could be a possible choice. However, as Chen is also 65 years old, his capabilities may not necessarily be suitable for the role of the General Office Director.
Another potential candidate is You Jun, Deputy Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee. He has held various important positions within the Beijing municipality, and reportedly, Cai Qi values You Jun.
Regarding Cai Shenkun’s revelations, some netizens commented that “Cai Qi has exhausted all the tricks and has been drained by wine, women, and wealth…,” “Cai has become as fat as Xi, could it be from exhaustion? It’s probably from living a luxury and idle life. Loyalty is not an issue, the high probability of ‘changing dishes’ is that he knows too much…,” “Xi Jinping’s own situation is not much better, being in his seventies with high mental stress and potentially triggering multiple health issues at any time.”
The General Office of the CPC Central Committee is a pivotal institution within the CPC, responsible for administrative, meeting, communication, secretarial, informational, and research tasks. Additionally, it oversees the security, medical care, and management of codes, files, and logistics for top leadership figures. The most crucial division under the General Office Director’s control is the Central Guard Bureau, primarily tasked with safeguarding the personal safety of top CPC officials. A key prerequisite for serving as the General Office Director is to have the absolute trust of the top leader.
Since the 20th National Congress of the CPC, Xi Jinping has promoted a large number of his confidants, known as the “Xi Family Army,” but they are believed to be divided into various factions like the Fujian Faction and the Zhejiang Faction. Both Wang Xiaohong and Cai Qi belong to the Fujian Faction.
Wang Xiaohong oversaw Xi Jinping’s security during his time in Fujian, and after taking control of the Ministry of Public Security, he reshuffled the Provincial Public Security Bureau directors across all 31 provinces, consolidating his loyalists throughout the public security system nationwide.
Rumors have circulated since the 20th National Congress that Wang Xiaohong was poised to become the General Office Director, but ultimately, Cai Qi assumed the role. In early last year, there were rumors suggesting that Wang Xiaohong might replace Cai Qi at the 3rd Plenary Session and take up the position of Director of General Office of the CPC Central Committee.
French media once described Wang Xiaohong as the “ferocious gatekeeper” in Xi Jinping’s inner circle to illustrate his loyalty to Xi. However, independent commentator Du Zheng, in an article for Taiwanese media “Up Media,” expressed that the public security forces established by Wang Xiaohong in the public security system, based on the principle of relying on nepotism and personal attachment, only recognize Wang Xiaohong, not Xi. In reality, it is not the “Xi Family Army” but potentially the “Wang Family Army,” which may stir up controversies in Zhongnanhai in the future.
Du Zheng likened the Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong to China’s version of Lavrentiy Beria. On June 24, 2023, Prigozhin, the head of the Russian Wagner Group, suddenly staged an unsuccessful coup against Putin.
If the rumors surrounding Wang Xiaohong replacing Cai Qi turn out to be true, Wang Xiaohong will control two significant institutions closely tied to the top CPC leadership’s security – the Central Guard Bureau and the Public Security Bureau Special Operations Bureau. Wang Juntao, a political scientist living in the United States, told The Epoch Times that if Wang Xiaohong succeeds Cai Qi, internal power struggles within the CPC will likely intensify.
However, Cai Shenkun previously revealed that he learned from a influential contact within China that Xi Jinping has been completely stripped of his powers, and his abdication only awaits official announcement. Currently, power within the CPC has returned to the hands of three elderly individuals born in 1942, with military authority held by Zhang Youxia. Yet, this information remains unconfirmed.
External observers believe that if Xi indeed loses significant power, the change in the General Office Director may not necessarily be in line with Xi’s intentions.