Welcome to the November 8th Friday edition of “News Insight II,” in this episode, our guests to decode the news are Associate Professor Chen Shimin from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, Associate Professor Zheng Qinmo from the Department of Diplomacy and International Relations at Tamkang University, hosted by Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Trump dared to take military action, is the danger of a third world war decreasing? Will the “human enemy” sanctioned by the CCP take charge of Trump’s defense minister? Will NATO in Europe strengthen itself? What’s next for the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Is there a solution to the Middle East issue?
Trump 2.0 cabinet picks, several Taiwan-supporting and anti-Communist generals have been named.
The United States is accelerating its focus on countering the CCP, will the US-China economic decoupling lead to geopolitical upheaval? How will the EU and NATO play their roles? What can Taiwan contribute?
Some analysts believe that the probability of a third world war breaking out is decreasing, can Trump dismantle the axis of evil and extinguish the four major war hotspots?
In the U.S. election, Trump and the Republican Party are likely to fully govern, Trump will appoint over 4,000 positions, in a proactive style, his cabinet will significantly reflect decision-making. First announcement, the first female White House chief of staff in history, will be appointed by the campaign team co-chair Susie Wales.
Foreign media named popular cabinet nominees, here are some incomplete examples: For the “Secretary of State” position, nominees include Senators Rubio, O’Brien, former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty; For the “White House National Security Adviser,” nominees include O’Brien, Cobb, Senator Cotton, General Keith Kellogg; For the “Secretary of Defense,” senators Cotton and Walz are seen as favorites; For the “Treasury Secretary,” former trade representative Lighthizer, former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty; Musk is expected to serve as an advisor to cut government departments and budgets (reduce national debt, strengthen U.S. finance).
▶ Please ask Professors Chen Shimin and Zheng Qinmo, focusing on the national security and diplomatic team (the Treasury involves tariffs), what highlights particularly caught your attention about these cabinet appointees?
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to bring about significant adjustments in trade and security policies, especially with a 60% tariff against the CCP, leading to a decoupling of the US-China relationship. Foreign media believe that America’s Indo-Pacific allies and adversaries are geared up for Trump’s return to power, potentially resulting in geopolitical shifts. The Wall Street Journal expects a new pattern of competition and cooperation to emerge internationally.
▶ According to observation by Chen Shimin, (1) Why may there be a “geopolitical upheaval” following Trump’s continuation of the Indo-Pacific strategy in Biden’s four-year direction? (2) What’s particularly noteworthy is the quick statement made by the Philippine Ambassador to the U.S., urging for a setup of multilateral relations akin to AUKUS to counter China’s expansion in the South China Sea. AUKUS is the first military alliance since World War II, the Philippines’ call is quite bold, does this imply that the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have a high chance of strengthening defense cooperation with Taiwan?
▶ Continuing from the previous question. Why does Professor Zheng Qinmo believe that (1) Trump has the opportunity to become a “peace maker”; (2) Trump promised to end the Ukraine war on his first day in office?
Europe is busy adapting to the new situation brought about by Trump taking office. It is generally believed that Trump will accelerate the shift of the U.S.’s focus towards the Indo-Pacific to counter the CCP. NATO and EU countries may need to strengthen themselves in European security while also potentially dedicating more effort in the Indo-Pacific, such as EU foreign ministers encouraging more countries’ naval vessels to sail through the Taiwan Strait, and France’s aircraft carrier is set to depart for the Indo-Pacific for joint military exercises.
▶ In the observation of Chen Shimin, (1) What is the outlook for Europe in terms of security and defense? Will NATO focus on securing Europe, or will it also accelerate its collaboration with the U.S. in advancing towards the Indo-Pacific? (2) In this scenario, what opportunities does Taiwan have to strengthen its contributions?
Trump has announced a 60% high tariff against the CCP and will also use tariffs to address issues like the CCP’s drug exports, which is expected to significantly reset the U.S.-China economic relationship. However, with Trump’s victory, global stock markets have surged, Wall Street anticipates a prosperous future, indicating that the world is hopeful about these impending changes.
▶ According to Zheng Qinmo’s observation, under this scenario, how do you view the economic changes and strategies in Europe? How should Taiwan prepare for its opportunities in this new reset process?
Zheng Qinmo: The change in EU-China relations is more about China’s own export issues. The U.S. has reduced its dependence since the Trump era, making Europe more reliant. In the trilateral relationship between the U.S., EU, and China, Europe cannot go back to “leaning towards China”. Europe needs to think about “standing on its own.” The future involves a more “fair sharing” of responsibilities. Trump is likely to negotiate, Europe cannot balance the U.S. through China. Putin’s strategic choices are expanding, there is a chance for compromise.
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