Before Trump Takes Office: Reviewing the Prospects of Bilateral Relations Between the US and Taiwan

Following the settlement of the dust from the US presidential election, Donald Trump has successfully been elected as the President, and the United States is about to enter a period of transition between the old and new governments. Against this backdrop, officials from the United States and Taiwan, reflecting on the progress of their bilateral relationship, unanimously acknowledge that the shared values of democracy and freedom form a solid foundation, and that their future partnership will continue to deepen and advance within the existing framework of good cooperation.

President-elect Donald Trump is currently working diligently to introduce his new team for governance, while the Biden administration is also preparing for the transition of various departments. Ingrid Larson, the Executive Director of the American Institute in Taiwan, made a speech during the annual Thanksgiving dinner held by the Washington Taiwanese Association on the 16th, emphasizing that the US government has taken many concrete actions over the past year to demonstrate its steadfast commitment to Taiwan.

“Within the framework of our ‘One-China’ policy, the United States has taken practical actions over the past year to reaffirm and strengthen this key partnership, demonstrating our firm commitment to Taiwan’s democracy, security, prosperity, and international status,” Larson said.

These actions she mentioned include significantly increasing arms sales to Taiwan, strongly supporting the Tsai Ing-wen government’s efforts to enhance the overall resilience of Taiwan society, expanding Taiwan’s international participation, and injecting vitality back into US-Taiwan economic contacts, such as the 21st Century Trade Initiative and the upcoming comprehensive negotiations on the double taxation avoidance agreement.

“These efforts deepen mutual understanding and strengthen shared values such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law,” Larson continued, noting that while the US government is undergoing a transition, bipartisan support for Taiwan in Congress remains a consensus.

“As we approach the end of 2024, transitioning to a new government, this is not only a moment for reflection but may also bring some uncertainties. However, both parties in the US Congress agree on one thing, that our relationship with Taiwan is crucial for our prosperity,” she said.

Larson also emphasized that the priority given by the United States to the peaceful and stable situation in the Taiwan Strait over the decades remains as real today as it was when the Taiwan Relations Act was signed into law. She reiterated that the strong shared values based on democracy, freedom, and respect for human dignity between the US and Taiwan provide many areas for cooperation and gratitude.

Yang Yi-shan, Deputy Representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, who attended the Taiwanese Thanksgiving dinner for the first time, expressed gratitude to the Taiwanese community for supporting Taiwan’s democratization and helping promote US-Taiwan relations. She pointed out that Taiwan’s current development is not only thanks to the efforts of democratic predecessors but also to the efforts of more overseas compatriots in the US political and congressional circle, academia, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks, jointly promoting the progress of US-Taiwan relations, a task that no single group can achieve alone.

Yang Yi-shan also gave an interview to Voice of America regarding the possible development of US-Taiwan relations after President Trump took office.

She stated that the US-Taiwan relationship is like a relay race, with the Trump administration doing a lot for Taiwan during his first term, and the Biden administration emphasizing cooperation within the existing framework. Congress plays a very important role in this, so she believes that regardless of whether it’s Trump’s first term, Biden, or a second term for Trump, the direction of US-Taiwan cooperation will not undergo significant changes.

However, she also mentioned that some “fine-tuning” of policies is possible, but Taiwan’s determination to defend itself, irrespective of who governs the US or who the US President is, aligns with what Taiwan needs to do.

Having been in office for just over a month, Yang Yi-shan mentioned that many young people in Taiwan are undergoing training to enhance the overall resilience of Taiwanese society, as Taiwan is moving towards a stronger posture. She believes that Taiwanese society should have confidence in itself and in the future of US-Taiwan relations. This is not merely an emotional or intuitive analysis but requires a lot of foundational work to be done to enhance cooperation in various aspects.

Yang Yi-shan also stressed that the transition process of Trump taking office will undoubtedly involve many dramatic policy discussions, but these dramas are also part of the democratic process that Taiwan has also experienced. She believes that the United States is a mature democratic country and a society ruled by law, and many ongoing programs between the US and Taiwan are not easily disrupted. The progress of US-Taiwan relations is built on cooperation between departments, and it is not merely superficial.

“A lot of the backchannels and trust-building between official networks are already established, which are not easily broken. Taiwan’s diplomats play an important role, working daily to strengthen US-Taiwan relations and social communication. This will not undergo significant changes with any change of US President,” she said.

Regarding concerns about possible policy “fine-tuning” affecting Taiwan after Trump takes office, Yang Yi-shan reminded people not to overlook the legal basis of US policy towards Taiwan, including the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the “Six Assurances,” which have been longstanding laws. US policy towards Taiwan is well-founded in law. Despite each leader having a different style, interactions between Taiwanese diplomats, Taiwanese community members, US government, and Congress are crucial and must continue.