【Epoch Times February 21, 2025】The bilateral talks between the United States and Russia regarding the Ukraine war, while both sides have stated that progress is being made, have not yielded any significant results. Russia’s behavior is testing the patience of the Trump administration. President Trump’s peace plan has yet to show signs of yielding quick results, and the roadmap still seems uncertain.
On February 18, after the bilateral talks between Russia and the United States, American and Western officials believe that Russia has not shown signs of readiness to make any major concessions on the issue of Ukraine. According to reports, Western and American intelligence officials indicate that there is intelligence suggesting that Russian President Putin has not changed his aim of trying to control the entire Ukraine, and his goal remains extreme. Putin has not planned to withdraw from Ukraine or withdraw any troops and equipment from western Russia. Putin may agree to a ceasefire or negotiations to end the war, but his primary goal is to give the Russian military a chance to rest and regroup.
Western intelligence assessments suggest that Putin’s insistence on his “victory theory” regarding Ukraine is because he still believes that Russia has enough military superiority to defeat the West and Ukraine on the battlefield. Putin is waiting for Ukraine and Europe to give up resistance, and he is still immersed in his fantasy of “winning,” seemingly unaware of the immense pressure the Russian military is facing on the battlefield.
Putin’s “victory theory” assumes that the Russian military maintaining a slow and gradual advance on the battlefield will give them an edge over Ukraine by prolonging how long the Ukrainian military can hold their defensive lines, as well as delaying Western support for Ukraine.
On February 18, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Presidential Aide Ushakov met with US Secretary of State Rubio, National Security Advisor Volz, and Middle East Envoy Vitkov in Saudi Arabia. In these bilateral talks on Ukraine security, the Russian side presented an equal stance with the United States, avoiding discussing peace and instead focusing on US-Russia relations. Lavrov stated that the meeting was “productive,” and both Russia and the US have started listening to each other and are determined to move forward together.
Putin is trying to portray himself as a responsible leader of a major power and present Russia as an equally important country on the international stage as the United States. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement only briefly mentioned Ukraine, expressing willingness to work together with the US to resolve the war.
Recently, Kremlin officials have frequently mentioned the need for Russia to address the “root” issues of the war. Russian officials reiterated in the Saudi talks that it is crucial to eliminate the “root” causes of the Ukraine war, or else the Kremlin will not be willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Kremlin officials attribute these so-called “root” causes of the war to NATO allegedly violating its obligation not to expand eastward, and the Ukrainian government allegedly discriminating against Russian ethnicities, languages, media, and culture within Ukraine. Moscow’s explanation of the “root” causes of the war aims to shift the blame for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine onto Ukraine, portraying the outbreak of the war as Russia being forced into it rather than an unprovoked aggression.
During the bilateral meeting, US officials proposed a halt to attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, and Lavrov responded that Russian forces would only target facilities directly supporting the Ukrainian military. Lavrov deliberately downplayed the fact that Russia had been launching attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure every winter during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and denied Russia’s responsibility for deliberately targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities, despite ample evidence showing Russian forces using precision-guided weapons to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
The space between the United States and Russia on the Ukraine peace issue is paper-thin, with the US refraining from breaking that barrier and maintaining a friendly attitude, hoping Russia will carefully consider the current situation and become a “good negotiating partner” in the talks.
Trump seems unwilling to reveal his cards prematurely to anyone other than himself before entering substantive negotiations. This has led to various speculations, such as fact-checking Vice President Vans’s statements about US potentially resorting to the use of force and doubts about Trump’s adoption of appeasement policies.
On February 14, Vans was asked what security guarantees the US could offer Ukraine as part of a peace agreement with Russia and what “pressure points” could ensure Moscow’s cooperation. Vans mentioned “military options” among a “range of choices” in response. He stated, “I think there are absolutely pressure points there. President Trump has a wide range of options.”
On February 16, Trump was asked by reporters, “Vice President Vans said that if Russia cannot reach an agreement, the US may take military action against Russia, do you agree with this position?” Trump replied, “I don’t know if he said that. I don’t think he said that.”
This prompted the so-called fact-checking by the media, which is essentially meaningless. Because the US has multiple options, including economic and military measures, which are clearly laid out on the table even without explicit statements, the question is about choosing which option or how to choose. Vans did not specify which measures the US would definitely choose, as it is not yet time to discuss the chips. But he said that if Russia or Ukraine were not “good negotiating partners,” Trump might change his choice.
Vans remarked, “Talking now about giving up negotiations or reducing the stakes, I don’t think is a correct way to observe President Trump’s role or position in any negotiation.” Because President Trump can decide what he likes or dislikes. If the Russians are not good negotiating partners, things important to Ukraine that some Americans may want to give up will be back on the table for negotiation with Russia. Similarly, if Trump deems Ukraine as not a good negotiating partner, he might restructure the negotiation table.
Whether the Trump administration is pursuing an appeasement policy towards Russia remains unclear until substantive negotiations begin; all surface appearances do not explain the issue. These practices during the process may also be part of a strategy, with the key lying in the negotiation objectives and the final outcome.
The US hopes for a good negotiating partner in Russia, yet, at least so far, the Kremlin’s performance has been disappointing. People have not seen how many cards Putin holds, while the weaknesses exposed by Russia provide chips for Washington.
If the Ukrainian military continues to inflict casualties and depletion on the Russian forces on the battlefield at the current rate, Russia is likely to face war resource exhaustion within a limited time. The Russian defense industry may not be able to sustain the high-intensity consumption of aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles, artillery, and ammunition within 12 months. The Russian conscription efforts appear to be slowing down, and without enforced reservist mobilization, they cannot indefinitely make up for frontline casualties. Putin may have to risk social backlash in Russia to carry out reservist mobilization.
The war also inflicts trauma on the Russian economy, which faces unsustainable increases in war spending, inflation, labor shortages, and other issues, which may explode within a year or two. This does not even consider the factors of increased economic sanctions from the US and the West against Russia.
The US and Western military assistance to Ukraine has dragged Russia into a critical moment where Putin must make difficult decisions. While the Kremlin remains very firm on the Ukraine issue and Trump has maintained a mild stance towards Putin, it is evident who holds the stronger position.
To illustrate, it’s as if there’s a row of electrodes leading to Putin’s seat in front of Trump, where increasing the power to any electrode may cause Putin to jump. However, President Trump may believe it’s best not to turn any dial to achieve peace.