Be cautious of the CCP’s “strategic deception,” warns former dean of Taiwan’s National Defense University.

In recent times, rumors of severe illness, the use of body doubles, and a coup leading to a loss of power have been circulating around Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. While the Beidaihe Conference has concluded, the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party remain in seclusion. Additionally, abnormal reports in official Chinese media have sparked suspicions and rumors of changes in leadership in Zhongnanhai.

Journalists sought insights from retired General Yu Zongji, former dean of the Political Warfare College at Taiwan’s National Defense University, who expressed strong skepticism towards these swirling rumors.

With a military background, General Yu warned against the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party employing strategic deception in the midst of a complex global landscape. Especially with the dramatic developments in the Russia-Ukraine war spreading to Russian territories, the world is closely watching Vladimir Putin’s next moves. In the Middle East, Iran’s recent military exercises in the north may escalate tensions and potentially lead to a conflict.

Regarding the conspicuous absence of senior Chinese Communist Party officials and almost no public appearances of key military figures, General Yu speculated that Xi Jinping might be orchestrating a large-scale military plan.

Similar to the situation where Ukraine kept signaling shortages of ammunition and troops, as well as discord among its leaders, which led to Russia’s miscalculations and lax border defenses, enabling Ukraine to launch a surprise offensive towards Moscow.

General Yu elaborated that such strategic deception involves a continuous display of weakness to create uncertainty and undermine the foundation of ruling power. The recent rumors surrounding China are possibly aimed at lowering Western guard.

Concerning Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement of not seeking re-election as the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and the potential impact of a new leader on the policy towards China, and the upcoming US presidential election with candidates such as Democrats’ Kamala Harris and Republicans’ Donald Trump, external factors are crucial points of concern.

General Yu noted that these external factors present strategic opportunities for Xi Jinping. As Xi has repeatedly emphasized his strong desire to annex Taiwan, the only missing component is the opportune moment to employ military force against Taiwan.

Regarding the recent amendments to the “Military Pensions and Benefits Regulations” announced by the Chinese Communist Party, which significantly increased pension benefits, General Yu stated that it is evidently a preparation for war. China’s stockpiling of essential wartime resources like food, energy, and especially gold – with reports indicating China’s gold reserves valued at $170 billion, a historical high – is likely a precaution against potential Western sanctions during wartime.

Recent frequent changes among senior Chinese military officials, with three out of the five major military regions seeing commander reshuffles, and the July entry of the Chinese carrier Shandong into the eastern Pacific Ocean for exercises near Taiwan highlight the military activities.

General Yu emphasized that these signs affirm that Xi Jinping has not lost power. If Xi were genuinely critically ill or under house arrest, the Chinese Communist Party would not continue to exert military pressure on the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait.

Prominent former US Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger, who has been a journalist in China for many years and influential in US-China relations, recently highlighted in his book “Boiling Moat: Defending Taiwan’s Urgent Action” that once Xi Jinping acts against Taiwan, it could escalate to a full-scale war of occupying Taiwan.

He stressed that Taiwan and the international community must exhaust all efforts and make comprehensive preparations to make the Taiwan Strait an “unbreachable moat” for China.

General Yu indicated that the declining overall strength of China compels authoritarian figures to seize on any remaining advantages to launch attacks. Taiwan, along with steadfast allies like the United States and Japan, must not be misled by the deliberate strategic deceptions of the Chinese Communist Party. Instead, focusing on national security fundamentals, maintaining morale, and making thorough preparations are vital.