Recently, a set of Russian armored air defense systems mistakenly identified an Azerbaijan civilian aircraft as a Ukrainian drone and shot it down. Just before the accident, Ukraine had carried out drone airstrikes in the Grozny area.
Remarkably, Russia shot down an Azerbaijan civilian aircraft within its own airspace, causing the plane to crash in Kazakhstan and resulting in the deaths of 38 people. On December 28, Russian President Putin reluctantly apologized to the Azerbaijani Prime Minister, confirming Russia as the culprit behind this tragedy.
Let’s review the sequence of events: On December 25, an aircraft from the Azerbaijan Airlines took off from Baku, headed for Grozny in Russia. The plane was carrying a total of 62 passengers and five crew members. As the plane approached Grozny in Chechnya, it was hit by Russian air defense weapons and lost control, continuously decreasing in altitude. At this point, the pilot requested an emergency landing at a nearby Russian airport but was denied. To make matters worse, Russia not only refused to allow the aircraft to land but also used electronic interference devices to disrupt the aircraft’s GPS system and other avionic equipment. It was clear that Russia’s intention was to force the plane to fly east and crash into the Caspian Sea to cover up their crime.
Analyzing the flight path of the aircraft post-shooting down, it is evident that the plane’s altitude continuously fluctuated. The pilot struggled to keep control of the aircraft, narrowly avoiding several instances of crashing in the Caspian Sea. Upon reaching Kazakhstan, the pilot made several adjustments and attempted to land the plane at the optimal angle.
The pilot was a retired pilot from the Azerbaijan Air Force. Despite all hydraulic controls failing, he bravely guided the plane into Kazakhstan’s airspace. Tragically, the pilot lost his own life in the crash but saved over twenty others. Examination of the wreckage revealed extensive bullet holes, confirming that the plane was shot down by Russia’s air defense system. According to Azerbaijan’s investigation, the aircraft was downed by Russian armored air defense missiles, commonly seen on Ukrainian battlefields. It is an all-in-one missile and cannon defense system mounted on trucks, capable of rapid deployment with a theoretical range of 30 kilometers and a ceiling of 15,000 meters. The latest model, the Armata SM radar, has a detection range of up to 75 kilometers and an increased range of 40 kilometers.
The question arises, why did Russia use armored air defense systems to shoot down a civilian aircraft?
One reasonable explanation is that Ukraine had intensified drone airstrikes in Russia’s rear areas, causing the armored air defense system to mistake this civilian aircraft for a Ukrainian drone and shoot it down.
For instance, just a few days prior, Ukraine attacked a drone storage facility in the Oryol region of Russia, destroying numerous Iranian drones stored there. On the same day, Ukrainian drones also struck in Voronezh, Rostov, and Belgorod, forcing local airports to suspend operations.
Over the past month, Ukrainian drones have continuously targeted Russia’s heartlands. Recently, an attack on a military base in Kursk, Russia, was caught on video. Ukraine’s primary targets have been Russia’s ammunition and fuel depots. Weeks ago, a massive fuel depot near Sevastopol port was targeted by Ukrainian drones, resulting in severe damage.
Another video showed Ukraine attacking a fuel depot in Rostov, Russia. Such incidents occur almost every week on Russian soil. A recent report by The Sun highlighted Ukraine’s drone strike on a fuel facility in western Russia. Despite Russia’s claims of shooting down twenty drones with their air defense and electronic warfare systems, the videos confirm that many drones hit their targets. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine would continue using drones and missiles to target Russian military objectives.
In the same week, Ukrainian drones hit Kazan, a city over 600 miles from the Ukrainian border. A residential high-rise building in Kazan was hit, igniting a massive fire. Early Thursday morning, Ukrainian drones targeted the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov, Russia.
The location of the incident, Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, had also been a target of Ukrainian airstrikes. A report from December 15 by The Daily Mail mentioned Ukrainian drones striking a Russian National Guard campus in Chechnya, located 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian front line. According to the English article, before the Azerbaijan plane crash, Ukrainian drones were conducting airstrikes around Grozny in Chechnya.
Russia’s absurd act of shooting down the plane is not unprecedented and will likely not be the last. The most prominent example is the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17. The flight was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur International Airport when it was hit by a missile from the Russian 53rd Air Defense Brigade in eastern Ukraine, resulting in the death of nearly 300 passengers and crew members.
At that time, Ukraine was engaged in heavy fighting with separatist rebels in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Russia consistently denied direct involvement in the Donbass conflict. However, investigations revealed that the Russian 53rd Air Defense Brigade, stationed in Kursk, crossed into Ukraine and fired the missile that downed the plane before retreating back to Russia. These findings were consistent with U.S. and German intelligence reports. Following the incident, Russia not only denied Western accusations but also obstructed investigations.
In various aspects, whether involving civilian aircraft or military interventions in Ukraine, Russia’s credibility is questionable, and their denials are unreliable.
Throughout the Ukrainian conflict, the Netherlands has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine among NATO countries. Years ago, when Russia shot down a Dutch aircraft, instead of taking responsibility, they misled the international community. Now given the opportunity to provide weaponry to combat Russia, the Netherlands is more than willing to assist. The Netherlands offered Patriot air defense missiles, retiring F-16 fighter jets, and even purchased Leopard 2 tanks to send to Ukraine. A July report by Reuters mentioned that the Netherlands and Denmark planned to deliver 14 modified Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, purchased through third parties and refurbished by German Rheinmetall, funded by the Netherlands and Denmark.
Russia has angered the Netherlands, lost in Syria, and now offended one of its few allies, Azerbaijan. Truly, alienating allies seems to be Russia’s current path.
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