The 2024 United States presidential election is approaching, and a model for predicting electoral votes created by data analyst Dr. Thomas Miller from Northwestern University shows that the probability of victory for Republican candidate Trump has significantly surged in the past week.
Miller releases daily predictions of electoral votes for both parties on “The Virtual Tout” website, where he creates charts of these predictions and highlights major events that could influence voters, such as the assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania on July 13 and the vice presidential debate on October 1.
Miller utilized data from the popular betting website PredictIt, converting daily pricing bet data on the site into voter percentages.
He stated, “Prediction markets are more reliable than typical opinion polls and commentators because betting markets do not require people to express opinions or preferences, but rather to place bets. When you place a bet, you believe in the candidate you bet on, even if you do not like the (election) outcome, you still believe it will happen.”
In the prediction on September 30, Harris was leading Trump by a large margin, garnering 308 electoral votes, while Trump only had 230.
However, Harris’s winning probability continued to decline over the next week, ultimately being overturned by Trump. In the prediction on October 7, Trump was slightly ahead with 270 votes compared to Harris’s 268 votes. As of October 11, the model predicts Trump will win the election with 304 electoral votes, while Harris would receive 234 votes.
Faced with the situation where the model predicts a significant lead for Trump, Miller expressed uncertainty about why Trump was able to make a comeback and doubted whether Trump could maintain the lead.
Miller said, “We have not found any event to explain why the model predicted a decrease in Democratic votes on October 6 and October 7.”
“In essence, we are a divided country, and the outcome of this election is highly uncertain.” Miller said, “After the vice presidential debate, trading volume in the betting market decreased within a week, but in recent days, trading volume has increased again, indicating that the market is becoming active, possibly because investors are reassessing the situation, changing their betting choices, or new investors are entering the market.”
Miller mentioned, “This is the first time in American history that we have seen a presidential election go from a deadlock to a overwhelming victory for the Republican Party, then back to a deadlock, then the possibility of a overwhelming victory for the Democratic Party, back to a deadlock, and then swaying back to a Republican scenario.”