In recent years, news of high-ranking Chinese Communist officials being purged has been widespread. Experts analyzing the infighting within the CCP military believe that the power struggles within the party are more dangerous than battles on the battlefield, with August 1st, the CCP’s Army Day, being a key observation point. The lack of transparency in CCP politics has instead created a crisis for its own regime.
Former Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission, Xu Qiliang, was reported to have passed away suddenly on the 2nd of this month. His funeral was held on the 8th at the Babaoshan Cemetery in Beijing, with members of the CCP Politburo sending wreaths as condolences, except for a wreath with the signature of He Weidong.
He Weidong, one of the current Vice Chairmen of the CCP Central Military Commission, whose position in the military ranks second only to the other Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, is seen as one of Xi Jinping’s trusted confidants. Since March 11th this year, after disappearing from public view following the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress, there have been widespread rumors of He Weidong being investigated. If these rumors are confirmed, he would be the first Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission to be purged in office since the “Cultural Revolution” in China from 1966 to 1976.
With CCP Central Military Commission members Li Shangfu and Miao Hua falling from grace, if He Weidong is also purged, the number of members on the CCP Central Military Commission will decrease from 7 people to 4.
Major General Lin Xiang, seen as the main military zone for the CCP’s attack on Taiwan in the Eastern Theater Command, along with several military leaders from the former 31st Group Army stationed in Fujian, have also been reported to be in trouble. Xi Jinping had served in Fujian and had a close relationship with the 31st Group Army leadership.
On June 16th, Su Ziyun, the Director of the Strategic and Resource Institute at Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute, told Epoch Times that the CCP’s internal power struggles are not just about anti-corruption but more dangerous than on the battlefield.
Su Ziyun said that these disciplined military leaders all have been promoted by Xi Jinping. Currently, it appears that only Zhang Youxia has the power to carry out purges; Xi Jinping might have become a rubber stamp, “Otherwise, not all those removed are from Xi’s army.”
However, he believed that Zhang Youxia was ultimately appointed by Xi. This situation symbolizes that Zhang will not blindly accept Xi’s leadership, “For these 13 years since [Xi took office], resentment has been building up.”
Currently, the management layer of personnel in the CCP military is collapsing. Apart from Miao Hua, who was originally in charge of personnel, He Weidong, who was in charge of political work as a Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission, Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission He Hongjun, has also been reported to be in trouble. Earlier reports from Hong Kong media suggested that the Discipline Inspection Secretary of the CCP military commission, Zhang Shenmin, may have also taken over the Political Work Department.
Political commentator Chen Pokong, commenting to Epoch Times, said that after the CCP’s 20th National Congress, the transition from one-party dictatorship to one-man dictatorship led Xi to believe he was on the path to lifelong rule. But events after the 20th Congress have turned out differently.
Chen analyzed that Xi Jinping’s original plan was to force Zhang Youxia to step down before the third plenary session last year, allowing Miao Hua to fill the position, to internally control military power and externally attack Taiwan. Miao Hua and He Weidong both come from the Eastern Theater Command, seen as the main combat zone for attacking Taiwan. Even rumors had spread at the time suggesting Peng Liyuan was a “full-time member of the Central Military Commission’s Senior Review Committee,” implying her military attire appearances aimed at taking control of personnel rights in the military. But everything changed after the third plenary session, with Zhang Youxia not only not being forced out but also becoming more entrenched. As a result, Xi Jinping’s allies have been falling one after another, placing Xi in a disadvantaged position now.
Su Ziyun also mentioned that the CCP’s political work system holds a higher position than the commanding system. If allies in the political work system cannot keep themselves secure, Xi’s control over military power is no longer reliable.
Renowned independent media figure Tang Jingyuan told Epoch Times that the recent upheaval in the CCP military shows clear characteristics. Firstly, a widespread purge has occurred, targeting Xi Jinping’s close associates, including the Rocket Force and the Eastern Theater Command. Secondly, the purge has almost exclusively targeted Xi’s allies. Thirdly, after Xi’s allies are removed, they are almost all replaced by Zhang Youxia’s faction.
“It means that there has been a huge replacement and transfer of power within the CCP military. Once there is a shift in control over the military, it means that the foundation of the party leader’s power has collapsed. Currently, although Xi Jinping may still be the nominal top leader, he has effectively lost control over the highest power of the CCP,” he said.
Last month, Xi Jinping rarely visited the military camp in Henan, for reasons unknown. Rumors emerged about Xi inspecting the camp, and New Major General Yan Xiang encountered trouble, but these rumors have not been confirmed yet.
In line with the usual practice of the CCP, a group of generals is usually promoted just before Army Day on August 1st each year. With news in the past year of many generals facing purges within the military, the promotion of a new batch of generals by Xi Jinping and the announcement of their appointments will be closely watched.
Chen Pokong stated that this year’s Army Day will be a significant turning point to observe which generals get promoted and who they are affiliated with. It could be Xi Jinping’s most awkward Army Day since taking office. For instance, slogans that troops usually chant like “Listen to Chairman Xi’s command,” “Let Chairman Xi rest assured,” “Be responsible to Chairman Xi” might face issues this time because Xi’s authority has weakened.
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun was absent from the Shangri-La Dialogue at the end of last month and early this month and appeared on June 10th to meet with the Commander of the South African National Defense Force. Since taking office, Dong Jun has not been able to enter the Military Commission or become a State Councilor, with ongoing rumors of his probe.
Chen Pokong pointed out that Dong Jun has a background related to Miao Hua and the Navy, as well as being from Shandong like Peng Liyuan. He has become the weakest and most embarrassing Defense Minister in CCP’s history under the current purge wave.
He believed there are no signs of any reinforcements in the Central Military Commission currently, indicating that the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP will certainly witness a major confrontation between Xi’s faction and the anti-Xi faction.
The CCP’s internal purges and personnel changes are becoming increasingly opaque, making it difficult for the international community to understand the current state of its military power.
Su Ziyun mentioned that the CCP’s lack of transparency has instead created a crisis for its regime, as if hitting oneself with a stone on the foot. “It seems airtight but actually fragile. Because once it exceeds a certain surface tension, the entire system collapses. Personnel in the military are just one of the many structural problems of the Chinese Communist Party organization.”
Chen Pokong argued that the CCP’s personnel matters are inherently opaque, facing difficulties in personnel management. The fierce internal struggles at the higher levels of the CCP are likely much more severe than imagined, leaving the party and military in unstable conditions.
Chen also noted that the sound of sinking has been heard within the CCP, especially with the military morale dissipating. “They keep talking about attacking Taiwan, which is just a smokescreen, a facade to cover up the intense internal struggles within the party’s military. For them, nothing is more important than power.”