On January 7, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Dingri County in Shigatse City, Tibet, triggering concerns about the risks posed by the construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River.
Following the earthquake, five reservoirs near the epicenter developed cracks and other issues. Prior to the earthquake, there were already worries about the potential risks associated with the CCP’s construction of the massive hydroelectric dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River.
According to a report by the official CCP media Xinhua on January 16, as of now, the water resources department has inspected 14 reservoirs (hydroelectric stations) in Tibet’s Dingri County and identified problems such as local cracks in five reservoirs. Three of these reservoirs have been emptied as a precautionary measure.
In response to the situation, the Coqur Reservoir in Dingri County has installed 60 high-density electrical resistivity imaging instruments on the dam body for real-time monitoring, and drainage channels are being excavated. Measures are also being taken to reduce the risk of dam failure at the Ralang Reservoir in Loso Township, where the right side of the overflow weir is leaning and there are signs of water seepage on both sides of the spillway. About 1,500 residents from six villages downstream of the reservoir have been relocated to nine safer locations with higher elevations, away from the river channel.
The earthquake in Dingri County, with a magnitude of 6.8, has resulted in at least 126 fatalities and hundreds of injuries, raising further concerns about the risks faced by the CCP authorities in constructing hydropower facilities in the seismically active Himalayan region.
On January 10, Reuters reported that researchers stated the Himalayan region already has 68 major dams in operation, exploiting only one-fifth of the immense hydroelectric potential from high-altitude lakes and rivers in the region. However, the region lies in a seismic zone, posing earthquake risks. Additionally, there are currently 101 dams in the planning or construction stages.
Before this earthquake, the CCP’s plan to build the world’s largest dam downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River had raised concerns among experts.
In a report on December 25, 2024, Xinhua News Agency announced that Beijing had approved the construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam downstream of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, with a power generation capacity exceeding three times that of the Three Gorges Dam. This decision not only raised concerns in India but also sparked controversy.
Brahma Chellaney, an Indian geopolitical and strategic expert, wrote in the Nikkei Asian Review, pointing out that the massive dam is located in the earthquake-prone southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, an area situated on the fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. Since the project was approved by the National People’s Congress of the CCP in March 2021, Beijing has provided minimal updates on the project.
Chellaney emphasized that the devastating 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, which claimed 87,000 lives, drew international attention to the phenomenon of “reservoir-induced earthquakes.” Some studies suggest that the Sichuan earthquake may have been triggered by the construction and operation of the Zipingpu Dam, located near a fault zone and operational for two years. The massive weight of water accumulated in the reservoir was believed to have contributed to the seismic activity.
Chellaney criticized Beijing for conducting major dam projects on transboundary rivers secretively in the past, only revealing their true nature after being exposed in commercial satellite images.
The Wall Street Journal also noted in an article that the giant dam will endanger the ecological environment of China and its southern neighboring countries, furthering the economic agenda of the CCP leadership, reliant on industrial production for growth, at the expense of the local and global environment. The Yarlung Tsangpo River flows from Tibet into India and Bangladesh, serving as a crucial water source for both nations.
In an article published in October 2022, Fan Xiao, a former senior engineer with Sichuan Provincial Geological Bureau’s Regional Geology Survey Team, stated that the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge Hydropower Project is located in a seismically active zone, where strong earthquakes could lead to direct destruction. Therefore, embarking on hydroelectric development in the area, constructing super mega-projects, will entail unprecedented costs and risks.