Hong Kong Scholar Exposes Cat Poop: Mainland College Students’ Employment Rate Drops to as Low as 30%

Recently, retired professor Ding Xueliang from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology wrote an article in the Hong Kong media, claiming that the army of unemployed students in mainland China may be nearing 30 million. The employment rate is unlikely to reach the official figure of 56%, but rather average or even drop as low as 30%. He also exposed some of the fraudulent practices in reporting employment rates.

According to a report released by the well-known Chinese online recruitment platform “Zhaopin” (智聯招聘), the employment rate of Chinese university graduates dropped from 57.6% in the previous year to 55.5% in 2024.

Professor Ding Xueliang pointed out in an article published in the Hong Kong newspaper “Sing Tao Daily” that based on estimates from several experienced observers, the actual employment rate of recent graduates last year was likely in the range of 30% to 35%, not exceeding 40%, and certainly not reaching 56%. If the average employment rate is 30%, the total number of unemployed people would be around 28.05 million.

Ding recently communicated with teachers from mainland universities, who mentioned that even the worst-performing universities cannot achieve a 30% employment rate, with only about 20% finding jobs. Guidance counselors are advising recent graduates who can’t find jobs to mark “flexible employment” on forms and claim to be doing self-media work when questioned during surveys.

He also mentioned anecdotes from before the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, where young people would “rent a boyfriend or girlfriend to take home for the Lunar New Year,” out of fear of being questioned by family and neighbors about their relationship status. However, this year, he no longer hears such stories, with the majority responding that they can’t afford to hire a fake partner as finding a job is already challenging. For young people, finding employment has become more important than finding a partner, aligning with expectations in economics and sociology.

Ding’s article also pointed out that due to increasing pressure from government agencies on universities to meet hard employment rate targets, universities find it convenient to manipulate the statistics to meet these targets.

He stated that the definition of “employment” in mainland China varies from strict to lenient standards. Statistics from earlier years (before 2009) tended to be more stringent, whereas recent data use more lenient criteria. During economic downturns and noticeable reductions in new job opportunities, universities may count graduates’ job “intentions letters” as formal employment offers in reporting statistics. In recent years, some universities do not include graduates planning to take postgraduate exams or study abroad as “unemployed,” making the employment rate appear higher.

Furthermore, before 2009, employment statistics for many recent graduates were not openly disclosed to the public, and obtaining extensive data became increasingly difficult for external researchers.

From April to June 2023, the unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24 consecutively exceeded 20% and peaked at 21.3% in June. Subsequently, the CCP officially announced the suspension of publishing urban unemployment rates by age group starting in August of that year. In January 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics adjusted its statistical methods by excluding students to resume publishing age-specific unemployment rates. It is believed that the CCP’s motive in these actions was to conceal unfavorable circumstances.

Official CCP data indicates that in December 2024, the urban unemployment rate for non-students aged 16 to 24 was 15.7%. However, a study by Zhang Dandan from Peking University in 2023 suggested that the youth unemployment rate in China could reach as high as 46.5%.

In recent years, the sluggish Chinese economy has placed university graduates in a challenging employment situation. Numerous online videos circulate depicting people of various ages lamenting their failed job searches.

On March 9th of this year, Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Wang Xiaoping, stated during the “Two Sessions” press conference that the expected scale of this year’s Chinese recent graduates will reach 12.22 million. Many observers believe that China’s young people will face the toughest job market this year, potentially leading to social unrest.