Miao Hua’s career setback: alleged involvement in Chinese Communist Party’s military power restructuring ahead of the 21st National Congress.

The power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party has intensified as Xi Jinping, the leader of the CCP, faces challenges within his own ranks. Last November, his close ally and Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, Miao Hua, was investigated and has been absent from the recent “Two Sessions” held in March. It is rumored that the battle for power ahead of the 21st Party Congress has begun, causing Xi Jinping’s planned successor, Miao Hua, to fall out of favor after being found “politically disloyal,” leaving Xi Jinping in a vulnerable position.

According to Australian liberal scholar Yuan Hongbing, inside sources reveal that the contest for seats on the 21st Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP is heating up. As the 21st Congress approaches in 2027, Xi Jinping seeks to continue his leadership. However, many of his trusted individuals have encountered troubles, disrupting his plans for the upcoming leadership changes.

Yuan Hongbing emphasized that Miao Hua’s downfall was not solely due to a power struggle between him and Zhang Youxia, but primarily because of his perceived lack of political loyalty to Xi Jinping, which was uncovered by the intelligence system. The impact of the Miao Hua case on Xi Jinping is believed to be more significant than the repercussions Mao Zedong faced following the Lin Biao incident.

The aftermath of Miao Hua’s case continues to reverberate within political circles. Many military representatives were absent from this year’s National People’s Congress due to their connection to the Miao Hua case, highlighting one of the internal political challenges facing Xi Jinping.

It has been suggested that the internal factional struggle within the Chinese Communist Party has become more pronounced recently, with potential political storms on the horizon as the leadership lineup for the next term is to be decided. Red Second Generation members reportedly believe that Xi Jinping must not continue his presidency during the 21st Congress, fearing that his reign could lead to the downfall of the Party and its affiliated families, prompting them to employ various tactics to oppose his reelection.

During the “Two Sessions” this year, on March 7th, General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CCP, presided over the meeting with the military and armed police delegations. While key military figures such as He Weidong, Liu Zhenli, and Zhang Shengmin were in attendance, Xi’s close associate and member of the Central Military Commission, Miao Hua, was absent due to the ongoing investigation.

It was revealed that Army Commander Li Qiaoming, who was previously under investigation, made appearances at the meetings on March 3rd and March 7th. Conversely, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning, who were absent from the 2024 promotion ceremony, did not attend the recent conference. These individuals, including Yuan Huazhi, Wang Chunning, and Qin Shutong, are considered to be Xi’s close allies. Li Qiaoming, seen as a trusted ally of Zhang Youxia, served in the same military district as Zhang during the Vietnam War and maintained a close relationship during their time in Shenyang Military Region.

Political analyst Cai Shenkun noted that the recent “Two Sessions” provided a crucial window to observe internal power struggles within the military and the challenges faced by Xi Jinping’s authority. The public reemergence of Army Commander Li Qiaoming and the absence of several key allies of Xi Jinping suggest a tilt in military power towards Zhang Youxia, posing a significant challenge to Xi’s authority.

On November 28th last year, the Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesperson announced that Miao Hua was suspected of “serious violations of discipline,” leading to his suspension for investigation. According to the internal regulations of the CCP Discipline Inspection Commission, suspension for investigation is a temporary measure taken against officials involved in serious wrongdoings that make them unsuitable for their current positions or hinder the investigation process. This measure typically lasts for up to six months and does not preclude reassignment or adjustment in rank once the suspension period ends.

Political commentator Du Zheng previously stated that the phrasing used indicated a preemptive judgment on Miao Hua’s case: serious problems exist, but a lenient approach will be taken. It is unlikely that Miao Hua will face the same fate as former Defense Ministers Wei Feng and Li Shangfu, who were expelled from the Party, stripped of military ranks, and subsequently prosecuted. However, it is possible that other officials might provide incriminating testimony against Miao Hua to save themselves. In such a scenario, with the support of the Party’s elder faction, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia could pressure Xi to take harsh measures against Miao Hua to maintain his position, potentially sacrificing Miao Hua to save face.