【Current Affairs Military】Russia Must Accept Consequences if Refusing Ceasefire

Following the meeting between the United States and Ukraine in Jeddah, Ukraine has accepted the 30-day ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States and is preparing to engage in negotiations with Russia. As part of the Jeddah agreement, Washington has lifted the pause on military assistance and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. As US Secretary of State Blinken said, “The ball is now in Russia’s court.”

On March 11, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced on a telegram channel that the ceasefire would entail halting all combat operations along the entire front line, long-range missile and drone attacks, as well as operations in the Black Sea, and would commence immediately upon Russia’s agreement to the US proposal. He stated, “Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must now demonstrate whether it is ready to end the war or continue it. It is time to understand the full truth. I thank everyone who helped Ukraine.”

On the same day, US Secretary of State Blinken stated during a press conference that Russia’s deadline to respond to the ceasefire proposal is “as soon as possible.” He emphasized that the best goodwill gesture Russia could offer is to accept the ceasefire proposal, and if Russia refuses, “then we know who is obstructing peace.”

On March 12, Blinken, while waiting for his plane to refuel at Shannon Airport in Ireland, told the media that all sanctions imposed by the US on Russia remain effective and no measures have been taken to ease these sanctions. He stressed that now is not the time to threaten Russia, and if Russia says “no,” then the US will see how to proceed constructively. He expressed hope for a positive response from Russia. In case Russia rejects the ceasefire proposal, it would be very unfortunate.

President Trump expressed his views on the ceasefire agreement to the media on Tuesday, stating, “We will meet with them (Russia) later today and tomorrow, hoping to reach an agreement. But I think the ceasefire is essential. If we can get Russia to agree, that would be great. If we cannot, we will continue, and people will be killed. Many people!”

Russia, having received the “ball,” seemed in no rush to pass it on but accelerated its military operations in Kharkiv. In recent days, Russia has launched a new round of attacks on Sumy, swiftly occupying the suburbs of the city. Reports on March 12 indicated that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from Sumy to avoid being encircled by the advancing Russian forces. The Russian attack on Sumy might be seizing the opportunity of Ukraine’s lack of intelligence support as they try to make significant tactical advances.

The US think tank War Studies Institute stated on Tuesday that the Russian forces continue to advance toward Kherson. Geolocated videos show Russia advancing both to the north and south of the settlements while occupying a cluster of villages in the southeast and east of Sumy.

Russian Senator Konstantin Kosachev believes that Russia is making progress on the battlefield, and therefore, any agreement should be according to their conditions, not the US conditions. Currently, in Russia, a significant number of politicians share the same view as Kosachev, suggesting that Russia has the upper hand. They imply that from Moscow’s perspective, the ceasefire proposal is a “trap.”

Extreme nationalist groups in Russia, including politicians, issued a resounding rejection of the ceasefire proposal. On March 11, pro-Moscow Russian military bloggers widely rejected the ceasefire proposal, claiming that the US and Ukraine would “abandon peace at the first opportunity.” They argue that this war is a matter of life and death for Russia. Some stated that accepting the ceasefire would be “pure betrayal and destruction,” as they find it inexplicable to accept a ceasefire proposal without achieving Russia’s war objectives. The Russian Duma and former 58th Army joint commander Viktor Sobolev stated that Russia should not agree to the “unacceptable” 30-day ceasefire proposal since it would allow Ukraine to rearm and regroup.

However, Russia’s quest for “victory” has been exceptionally brutal. On March 12, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Syrskyi stated that Russian forces are trying to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kherson region and shift their combat operations to Sumy and Kharkiv. He reported that since the operation began in Kherson, Russian losses have exceeded 54,900, with over 22,200 soldiers killed, 31,800 wounded, and 942 soldiers captured. Additionally, more than 2,100 pieces of Russian military equipment have been destroyed, including 90 tanks, 654 armored vehicles, air defense systems, aircraft, and nearly 1,500 drones. As of 6 p.m. on March 11 in Kyiv, Ukrainian troops have repelled eight Russian-led attacks. He emphasized that protecting the lives of Ukrainian soldiers remains the top priority, and the forces will be relocated to more advantageous positions when necessary. “As long as it is reasonable and necessary, we will hold the defense of the Kherson region.”

On March 12, Kremlin spokesman Peskov responded vaguely to the US-Ukraine 30-day ceasefire proposal, stating, “We do not want to be hasty.”

High-level sources in Russia stated that any temporary ceasefire agreement must take into account Russia’s progress on the battlefield and address Russia’s concerns. The ceasefire terms did not specify whether the halt includes all international weapons assistance or is limited to weapons supply from specific countries. It appears that Russia hopes to halt all military assistance to Ukraine during the ceasefire, while Russia can continue to receive crucial supplies and support from Iran, North Korea, and the Chinese government.

A source close to the Kremlin mentioned that the Kremlin would respond positively to the temporary ceasefire proposal but will also present “impossible conditions” that Ukraine cannot accept. Putin wishes to exclude Ukraine from negotiations, engage in separate talks with the US, and improve the front-line situation to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position. The sources implied that Russia believes that agreeing to a temporary ceasefire while Ukraine continues to receive weapons and funding from its partners and allies during this period would be foolish. Russia seems to intentionally leak these messages to disrupt the agreement reached by the US and Ukraine.

Before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire, the Kremlin may put forward longstanding demands publicly. These demands include a comprehensive withdrawal of Ukraine from the territories in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson that Russian troops have yet to occupy, dissolution of the current government, and formal abandonment of NATO membership. Russian officials, including Putin, have repeatedly claimed that any peace agreement must take into account the root causes of the conflict, which the Kremlin defines as NATO’s alleged violation of non-expansion obligations and discrimination by the Ukrainian government against Russian ethnic, language, media, and cultural groups.

The Kremlin attempts to raise issues that support its overall war objectives before agreeing to a temporary ceasefire, issues that would only come up in the final peace negotiations. These are not part of the current temporary ceasefire negotiation and violate the negotiation roadmap drafted by the US, which could lead to a stalemate in future peace talks. If the Kremlin uses the ceasefire as leverage to force concessions from the opponent prematurely while continuing to pursue battlefield advantages, such a cunning approach would expose Russia’s lack of urgency and sincerity in ending the war, with no intention to make any meaningful concessions.

Now is a crucial moment for Moscow to make a decision, either sit down at the negotiating table following the US peace roadmap or refuse the temporary ceasefire agreement, proving that Moscow is the real obstacle to peace. The world is watching closely to see what steps the Kremlin will take next, which will redefine the relationship between the US and Russia as either continuing confrontation or further reconciliation.

President Trump has invested a significant amount of reputation and influence in seeking a peace agreement to stop the slaughter. If Putin rejects it and shows hostility toward the US and all those hoping for peace, it may quickly lead to a cooling of the recently improving relations between Washington and Moscow. The consequences of failed negotiations could be severe for Russia.