Elite Forum: Economy Begins, Politics Ends, Virus Invades Two Sessions

The National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference have concluded. The focus of this year’s sessions was mainly on economic issues, highlighting the unprecedented crisis facing the Chinese economy. Official reports and various documents seemed to deliberately avoid addressing the real core problems. Experts believe that Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report failed to conceal the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is in a precarious situation.

A surprising incident occurred towards the end of this year’s sessions. Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Zhao Leji, was absent from the closing ceremony, with official announcements attributing it to a respiratory infection. However, on March 12, Zhao Leji reappeared without any noticeable abnormalities, leading to various speculations. The attention of the public shifted from the economy to politics due to this sudden turn of events.

Independent TV producer Li Jun mentioned in the New Tang Dynasty TV’s “Elite Forum” program that this year’s sessions seemed to start with economic issues and end with political turmoil. Zhao Leji’s sudden absence from critical meetings raised concerns about the political situation. The focus of the discussion shifted from economic matters to political uncertainties, indicating potential challenges lying ahead.

In another statement during the program, Qin Peng, a political and economic commentator, highlighted the worrisome tone of Premier Li Keqiang’s work report, which barely addressed the deep-rooted crises. The report mentioned various aspects such as economy, technology, security, stability, and intelligence, indicating a significant emphasis on stability amidst growing risks in the economy, society, and politics.

Qin Peng pointed out the emphasis placed on boosting domestic demand, stabilizing the housing and stock markets, and preventing risks and external shocks in 2025. The additional issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds indicates the looming financial risks China faces. The recent merger of four major asset management companies and the call for additional capital for state-owned banks further suggest an imminent financial crisis.

The focus on stabilizing housing prices and the job market was evident in the report. However, the disparity between policies and their actual impact remained a concern. The challenges in the real estate sector, reflected by declining prices and market uncertainties, suggested a deepening economic crisis.

The alarming rate of unemployment, especially concerning the imminent influx of 12 million new university graduates in 2025, underscored the immense pressure on the job market. The lack of effective measures to address job creation and income disparity raised doubts about the government’s ability to stabilize employment and boost consumer confidence.

The discussion also touched upon the fragile income structure of Chinese households, where both spouses often needed to work to sustain their families. The limited measures to address income disparities and the absence of significant social security enhancements highlighted the pressing concerns within the Chinese economy.

In analyzing the economic challenges, it was emphasized that China’s economic growth heavily relied on capital investment and production, which drove consumer demand and fostered a positive economic cycle. The transition from an external market dependency to internal consumption posed significant challenges, especially with income inequality and structural issues in income distribution.

The production-focused, planned economy model of China faced limitations in transitioning to a surplus economy. External market disruptions and the reluctance to reform the existing system created insurmountable challenges in addressing overproduction and consumption issues.

It was noted that the incapacity of the current system to adapt to an overproduction economy resulted in significant socio-economic vulnerabilities and hindered progress towards sustainable economic growth. The emphasis on production rather than consumption, coupled with the rigid bureaucratic framework, contributed to the current economic deadlock.

The insights shared in the “Elite Forum” program shed light on the intricate economic and social challenges facing China, urging comprehensive reforms to address the deep-seated structural issues for sustainable development. The comprehensive analysis provided a critical perspective on the complex interplay between the political, economic, and social dynamics in contemporary China.