China’s calculation in talks with Russia and Iran on Iran’s nuclear issue plus military exercises?

On 13th March 2025, the official announcement from the Chinese Communist Party revealed a sudden development. It stated that a meeting regarding the Iran nuclear issue will be convened on the 14th, involving Russia, Iran, and China. Simultaneously, a joint naval exercise was conducted in the Middle East by China, Iran, and Russia, with the leading role of the CCP arousing attention towards these actions.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared on the 12th that a meeting focusing on the Iran nuclear issue between Russia and Iran will be convened in Beijing on 14th March.

According to Chinese officials, the meeting will be hosted by Ma Chaoxu, the Deputy Minister of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with the presence of Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi. They will exchange views on the Iran nuclear issue and other mutual concerns.

In a statement, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson expressed that the talks will mainly address the “developments related to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions.”

Professor Ye Yaoyuan of the University of Saint Thomas’ International Studies Seminar remarked to Epoch Times that the trilateral meeting between China, Russia, and Iran appears to be a response to the United States’ active mediation for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Beijing aims to bring Russia and Iran together to counterbalance America’s mediation influence in the global system. Through this nuclear meeting, Beijing also seeks to highlight the close relationship between China and Russia.

Another aspect is the ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., with Beijing imposing tariffs and sanctions. Professor Ye Yaoyuan suggested that Beijing, through its nuclear development, particularly Iran’s nuclear program, intends to exert security threats and pressure on the U.S. “Therefore, this meeting is related to the current tense relationship between the U.S. and China. It is in this backdrop that this meeting takes place.”

In recent years, Iran has been increasing the accumulation of enriched uranium closer to weapons-grade, despite officials threatening to develop nuclear weapons, Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Iran’s nuclear program has sparked warnings from Israel and the United States. President Trump recently wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, seeking a new nuclear agreement with Tehran. Khamenei responded that Iran will not negotiate under pressure from the U.S. However, the Iranian mission to the United Nations posted on X the next day (9th March), stating that if negotiations aim to address concerns about the militarization of its nuclear program, Iran will consider discussions with the U.S.

During Trump’s first term, the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, a comprehensive nuclear agreement signed during the Obama era, and adopted a unilateral maximum pressure policy on Iran. Nevertheless, under the Biden administration, the intensity of economic sanctions by the U.S. has diminished.

Professor Chen Bingkui of the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University emphasized to Epoch Times that the Iran nuclear issue involves “the struggle of regional countries.” In the Middle East, it is essentially a struggle between Iran and Israel. It is currently uncertain whether the trilateral talks between China, Russia, and Iran aim to contain Iran’s nuclear weapons development or to safeguard Iran’s right to nuclear weapons.

He believes that the U.S. stance naturally opposes Iran’s production of nuclear weapons, and Trump may also seek mediation through Russia.

On the same day as the announcement of the tripartite talks, China, Iran, and Russia conducted a joint naval exercise in the Middle East on 12th March. The exercise, known as “Maritime Security Belt 2025,” took place in the Gulf of Oman, marking the fifth year of their participation in this joint exercise.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense stated that the joint exercise would conclude on Thursday (13th), covering simulations of striking maritime targets, damage control, and joint search and rescue operations.

The exercise took place near the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows in and out of the Persian Gulf.

Since President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and major world powers, Iran has seized commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz and carried out suspected attacks.

Both China and Russia have significant interests in Iran. Despite facing Western sanctions, China continues to purchase Iranian oil. Russia depends on Iran for providing drones carrying bombs used in the war in Ukraine.

Ye Yaoyuan believes that China, Russia, and Iran lack a formal security cooperation agreement, and their current relationship resembles more of a security partnership – such as military cooperation between China and Russia, allowing Iran access to advanced military technology.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s strategic relationship with Russia, Iran, and North Korea has continued to deepen. Some even refer to these four countries as a new “evil axis” seeking to disrupt the current international order.

Ye Yaoyuan states that these three countries are not yet allies. Aligning with Iran may not necessarily be a good thing because most European countries are wary of Iran. Currently, China and Russia seem to be leveraging Iran. “Iran is somewhat akin to another North Korea. China and Russia previously used control over North Korea to exert pressure on other countries, and at the current stage, they may want to exert pressure on other countries through Iran’s military development.”