Temporary Suspension of US-Ukraine Intelligence Sharing: How Significant is the Risk?

【Epoch Times March 7, 2025】
The relationship between the United States and Ukraine is returning to its original trajectory, but the path to peace is anything but smooth. Recent reports suggest that the United States has decided to suspend military aid and intelligence sharing. The question arises: Does the United States need to exert pressure on Zelensky militarily to force him to abandon unrealistic ideas, or is there another intention at play? This raises intriguing questions.

On March 5, CIA Director John Ratcliffe informed the media that the United States has ceased providing intelligence to Ukraine and delivering weapons.

The day before, on March 4, President Trump delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress in Washington, D.C., stating, “Earlier today, I received an important letter from Ukrainian President Zelensky.” Zelensky informed him that Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiating table as soon as possible to prepare for lasting peace, stating, “My team and I are ready to work towards lasting peace under President Trump’s strong leadership.” Trump added that Zelensky indicated he was prepared to sign the mining agreement “at any convenient time.”

Vice President Pence, in a media interview, mentioned that compared to deploying peacekeeping forces to post-war Ukraine, the mining agreement carries more practical deterrent power against Russian President Putin. He stated that Trump’s pursuit of the economic agreement with Kyiv is “more secure compared to sending 20,000 soldiers to a country that has not fought a war in three or four decades.”

This shows that the United States remains determined to lead Ukraine and Europe to end this war, a commitment Zelensky has actively expressed cooperation with. The mining agreement is expected to become an indispensable background condition that no Russian claim can conflict with during future peace negotiations. Against this backdrop, some events disagreeable to Russia or other unforeseen outcomes may occur. Therefore, even if situations that appear disadvantageous to Ukraine emerge before entering substantive negotiations, there seems to be no need for undue alarm.

However, if the Trump administration has indeed partially or fully suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, even for a short period, this would be a significant change, far more severe than suspending military aid. Ukraine’s existing ammunition stocks may possibly support them for several months. If negotiations make progress within a controllable timeframe, follow-up military assistance might not be necessary; if no expected progress occurs, the U.S. still has enough time to provide supplies to keep Ukraine’s frontline unaffected. However, suspending intelligence sharing could have an immediately adverse impact on Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly demanded that all foreign assistance to Ukraine be halted in any peace agreement. On March 4, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the U.S. provided intelligence data, such as satellite reconnaissance, to Ukraine. One of the many demands the Kremlin has leveled at the U.S., Ukraine, and their supporters is to cease intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Current reports on the details of the U.S. suspending intelligence sharing with Ukraine have varied. Some reports claim that the U.S. has actually suspended Ukraine’s warning system for defending against Russian long-range missile and drone attacks, the HIMARS multiple rocket system for precise strikes on designated targets, and intelligence sharing for striking military targets deep inside Russia. Other reports state that the U.S. has also prohibited the U.K. from sharing U.S. intelligence with Ukraine.

If the suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine by the U.S. is real, it will impair Ukraine’s ability to withstand continued Russian attacks on military and civilian targets, potentially encouraging Russia to take more extensive military action, worsening the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield. This could be unfavorable for subsequent peace negotiations.

Ukraine’s military has used this intelligence to attack and destroy numerous Russian military targets, increasing pressure on Russian troops and slowing down Russian attacks on Ukraine. Previously, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian missile and ammunition depots weakened Russia’s artillery advantage, reducing pressure on Ukraine’s front-line forces. Ukraine’s attacks on military targets inside Russia have also forced Russian air forces to retreat further into Russia, limiting Russia’s capability to deploy bomber planes for glide bomb and missile attacks on Ukraine’s frontlines and rear areas.

Without intelligence support, Ukraine would be unable to use artillery tactics missiles (ATACMS) and HIMARS rockets to strike Russian air defense systems inside Russia and the occupied territories within Ukraine, potentially affecting Ukraine’s front-line air defense systems. This may prompt Russian pilots to engage in riskier combat closer to the front line, enhancing Russia’s ability to effectively employ glide bombs to attack Ukraine’s front-line and rear areas.

Ceasing all intelligence sharing with Ukraine will also allow Russia to intensify attacks on Ukraine’s rear territories with drones and missiles, causing damage to Ukraine’s defense industry. Russian drone and missile strikes primarily target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and defense industry bases. Disrupting Ukraine’s Defense Investment Bureau’s ability to sustain progress is one of Russia’s operational objectives. Ukraine needs to rely on the Defense Investment Bureau to independently supply all material needs for its military, reducing dependence on foreign military aid, which aligns with U.S. security interests.

The U.S. intelligence sector has established a city-wide warning system for Russian air raids, enabling Ukraine and civilians to evade danger during Russian air strikes. The suspension of intelligence sharing could potentially impact the Patriot missile defense system and hence affect Ukraine’s defense against Russian ballistic missiles, posing a dual negative impact on Ukraine’s rear security.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat warned that without stable missile and defense system supply, Russia may regain the ability to strike at will, weakening Ukraine’s infrastructure and military capabilities.

The Kremlin aims to capitalize on the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing to make further gains on the battlefield. On March 5, Russian Security Council Vice Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that while the resumption of U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine is “highly likely,” Russia’s “main task” remains causing maximum destruction on the ground in Ukraine. Medvedev emphasized that the window of opportunity to “inflict maximum damage” on Ukrainian forces in light of the U.S. aid pause may be limited. Previously, Russian forces attempted to take Kharkiv in May 2024 during a similar U.S. military aid suspension.

CIA Director Ratcliffe informed the media that with Washington’s and Ukraine’s joint peace efforts, the suspension measures may be lifted. He mentioned, “I believe this kind of pause in military and intelligence cooperation will disappear.”

Thus far, Russia’s war efforts have brought no benefits but rather significant losses in terms of resources, manpower, and the economy. If Ukraine can maintain stable defensive operations, it may worsen Russia’s military challenges within a limited time frame. This could serve as a bargaining chip for the U.S. seeking fair and lasting peace. Nevertheless, suspending intelligence sharing could weaken the leverage Trump needs to achieve his stated objectives. Of course, it is not unthinkable that this is part of a well-ordered strategy by President Trump, ultimately placing pressure on Russia rather than Ukraine.

To achieve lasting peace, Putin’s ambition to continue annexing Ukrainian territory must meet its end. It is difficult to determine whether Putin, coerced to the negotiation table, can genuinely commit to lasting peace. Perhaps applying a “bandage” to Putin’s bleeding wound is a more sincere gesture than bestowing a “medal” upon him.