Japan is preparing to assist the U.S. in defending Taiwan in case of an emergency【Military Intelligence Agency】.

Japanese NHK reported that the Fukuoka Prefectural Government in Japan has released an evacuation plan. In the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the Japanese government plans to evacuate residents of the remote islands in Okinawa Prefecture to eight cities and towns in Kyushu, with an estimated total of about 120,000 people to be accommodated.

Firstly, let’s introduce a concept – the evacuated individuals are not the entire residents of the Okinawa Islands, but specifically those residing on the Senkaku Islands located in the southwest corner of Okinawa Prefecture. The “Senkaku Islands” include Ishigaki Island, the central island of Iriomote Island, Tarama Island, up to Miyako Island. In the event of an issue in Taiwan, based on the evacuation plan, residents of Ishigaki will arrive at Fukuoka Airport; while Miyako Island residents will fly to Kagoshima Airport. During the first month of evacuation, the individuals will be accommodated in hotels.

Why did the Japanese government create this evacuation plan? The reason is simple – in the event of an issue in Taiwan with U.S. military involvement, the Japan Self-Defense Forces will also participate in the Taiwan Strait conflict. If the Japanese government firmly decided not to partake in the Taiwan Strait conflict from the beginning, there would be no need for these evacuation plans. There is no intention to meddle in Taiwan Strait matters or engage in conflict with the People’s Liberation Army, thus, there would be no worry about provocation from China and subsequently no need to evacuate island residents.

Therefore, the logical explanation is that the Japan Self-Defense Forces are prepared to intervene when the U.S. is involved in a Taiwan Strait conflict. These islands will serve as military bases for the U.S.-Japan alliance, with the deployment of F-35 aircraft, Patriot missiles, and even Japan’s newly acquired Joint Strike Missile. During warfare, these military bases will become targets for Chinese long-range missile attacks. These missiles may lack precision and could end up in residential areas, endangering innocents. Moreover, logistics during wartime will be affected, so evacuating island residents is a precautionary measure.

Looking back to a report from January, Japan’s new Defense Minister visited the Japan Self-Defense Force base on Yonaguni Island in Okinawa, emphasizing the prevention of unilateral changes in status through force and the display of the country’s will. Although Prime Minister Abe is no longer in office, the policy of “an issue in Taiwan is an issue for Japan” still stands in the current Japanese government.

Next, let’s look at recent military deployments in the Senkaku Islands by Japan. During the Cold War, Japan did not have a significant military presence in the Okinawa region, focusing on defense towards the north against North Korea and the Soviet Union. However, following 2016, the Japanese Ministry of Defense began establishing bases and deploying troops on Miyako Island, Ishigaki Island, and Yonaguni Island.

Yonaguni Island, located closest to Taiwan among Japan’s islands, approximately 108 kilometers away, is equipped with anti-ship missiles and air defense missiles. By controlling Yonaguni Island, Japan can cover the northern waters off Taiwan; deploying air defense missiles can aid in intercepting Chinese fighter jets and missiles. As a key point for China to blockade Taiwan, any Chinese warships passing through the First Island Chain would have to navigate through the waters around Yonaguni Island, making its control vital for safeguarding Taiwan’s transport lines.

As early as 2023, the Japanese government planned to extend and fortify the airports on Yonaguni Island, New Ishigaki, and Miyako to accommodate F-35 fighter jets. Currently, Japan ranks second in F-35 fighter jet procurement after the U.S., purchasing a total of 147 aircraft, including 42 F-35B and 105 F-35A models. The F-35B can take off and land in short distances, while the F-35A cannot.

According to U.S. safety manuals, the F-35A’s safe takeoff and landing distance is about 7000 feet, roughly 2100 meters. However, the civilian airport runway length on Yonaguni Island is approximately 2000 meters, which is not sufficient, necessitating an extension of several hundred meters to enable the F-35A fighter jets to operate. This setup ensures that during wartime, Japanese and U.S. aircraft can be deployed flexibly. Japan also plans to construct a new port on Yonaguni Island for docking large vessels.

In addition to base expansions, in 2024, a unit of about 50 troops was deployed to the Self-Defense Force base on Yonaguni Island. This unit is primarily responsible for electronic warfare, such as intercepting enemy communications and disrupting radar. The Japanese government plans to increase the base’s area by 1.6 times and deploy surface-to-air missiles in the future.

Apart from the Japan Self-Defense Forces, the U.S. is also active in the region. In August 2024, during a joint U.S.-Japan exercise, the U.S. deployed a versatile radar on Yonaguni Island for the first time. The U.S. Marine Corps’ 12th Marine Regiment used a C-2 transport aircraft to transport and install an AN/TPS-80 radar on Yonaguni Island.

The AN/TPS-80 radar, developed by Northrop Grumman, became operationally capable in 2016. It is a multitasking radar that replaced five previously used by the Marine Corps, reducing costs and complexity. It can perform tasks such as airborne surveillance, air defense, airspace control, and target tracking.

This exercise demonstrates the emergency deployment capabilities of the U.S.-Japan alliance during wartime. The 12th Marine Regiment stationed in Okinawa possesses substantial air defense, anti-ship, and multi-domain combat capabilities. Any potential movements in the Taiwan Strait region could trigger the rapid deployment of the 12th Marine Regiment from Okinawa to Yonaguni, Miyako, and Ishigaki Islands to block the northeastern sea area towards Taiwan.

About 200 kilometers away from Taiwan lies Ishigaki Island. In March 2023, the Japan Self-Defense Forces formally established a base there, deploying Type 12 anti-ship missiles and Type 03 surface-to-air missiles.

The Type 12 anti-ship missile is approximately 5 meters long, with a 0.35-meter diameter, weighing about 700 kilograms. It features a fixed belly air intake, a Mitsubishi TJM2 turbojet engine, and a solid rocket booster. With a maximum speed of roughly 0.9 Mach and flying at a height of 10 meters above sea level, it utilizes a composite guidance system combining inertial, GPS, terrain matching, and terminal active radar guidance, providing both accuracy and flexibility in different flight stages, ensuring strong concealment.

Unlike other anti-ship missiles, the Type 12 missile includes a terrain matching guidance system for targeting land-based objectives. This feature is significant for cruise missiles targeting objectives on land, requiring terrain matching for precision strikes.

Currently, the equipped Type 12 missile has a relatively short range of only 200 kilometers. Following its deployment, Japan initiated an upgrade plan focusing on three main aspects: range, stealth, and engine capabilities. The aim is to increase the missile’s range up to 900 kilometers. Revealed images of the upgraded missile resemble Lockheed Martin’s LRASM, a typical subsonic stealth anti-ship missile.

Past collaborations and technology transfers between the U.S. and Japan in missile development, such as their joint investment in the Standard Missile Three, each priced at over 10 million US dollars, indicate a history of cooperation in defense technologies.

Combining available data, it can be speculated that the upgraded missiles feature stealthy aerodynamic designs, low detectability, and utilize a new generation engine significantly extending their range to 900 kilometers.

Reported by Japanese media, the improved Type 12 missile is expected to be deployed starting the fiscal year 2025, a year earlier than initially planned. From the fiscal year 2025, Japan will receive over 1000 upgraded Type 12 anti-ship missiles for deployment.

The significant implications of the second deployment of anti-ship missiles on Ishigaki Island are vast. This deployment places Japan’s long-range missiles within striking distance from the East China Sea to the South China Sea. Illustratively, the distance between China’s East Sea Fleet headquarters in Zhoushan and Ishigaki Island, approximately 670 kilometers, falls within the missile’s range, making the entire Taiwan region accessible to Japan’s long-range missiles, from northern Taipei to southern Kaohsiung and Tainan.

The Type 03 surface-to-air missile is a short-range missile produced by Japan, with a range of approximately 50 kilometers, primarily used for self-defense. Additionally, Japan procured a significant number of Patriot air defense missiles from the U.S., deploying Patriot PAC-3 air defense missiles multiple times on Yonaguni Island. For example, in May 2023, to counter long-range missile launches from North Korea, Japan deployed Patriot PAC-3 air defense missiles on Yonaguni and Miyako Islands. While aiming to address North Korean threats, the presence of Patriot missiles is actually a response to potential Chinese aggression. During wartime, Japan can swiftly redeploy its Patriot air defense missiles to Yonaguni Island, strengthening ground forces’ air defense.

Today, we have shared fragmented information that collectively portrays a comprehensive image. In the event of a Taiwan-related issue, Japan has prepared to assist the U.S. in defending Taiwan. The plan includes the evacuation of Senkaku Islands residents to free up space for more military activities and the continuous buildup of permanent military forces on the islands. Since 2019, Japan has continuously established and expanded military bases on Yonaguni, Miyako, and Ishigaki Islands. From a ground forces perspective, anti-ship and air defense missiles have been deployed; meanwhile, airfields on these islands have been expanded to facilitate the takeoff and landing of additional fighter jets during wartime.

The third part involves the rapid deployment of the U.S. 12th Marine Regiment stationed in Okinawa to the Senkaku Islands during wartime. The 12th Marine Regiment is part of the newly formed U.S. Multi-Domain Task Force, equipped with a dedicated air defense battalion to provide considerable regional air defense protection. Additionally, they possess Harpoon missiles and NSM anti-ship missiles. The NSM anti-ship missile has a range of 200 kilometers, while the Harpoon missile’s precision strike missile PRSM has a range of 500 kilometers, effectively hindering Chinese military actions in the north of the Taiwan Strait.

Simultaneously, alongside the U.S. deployment, Japan will swiftly mobilize, relocating Patriot missiles stationed within Japan’s mainland to deploy more anti-ship missiles quickly to the Senkaku Islands. Furthermore, Japan’s F-15 and F-35 fighter jets can also be deployed at Ishigaki Island’s airport.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once remarked, “an issue in Taiwan is an issue for Japan.” Despite Abe’s unfortunate passing a few years ago, his vision for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region still drives Japan’s current government policy. As emphasized by Defense Minister Nakanita during his January inspection of the Yonaguni Island base: Japan absolutely opposes unilateral changes in status through force.

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