Analysis: Under the chaotic rule of the Chinese Communist Party, grassroots powers are rising in China

Chinese Communist leader Xi Jinping has entered his third term, with China’s economy declining. In recent times, there has been a rise in what is called “overseas fishing” – referring to law enforcement by public security in remote areas for profit, along with various chaotic policies such as excessive fines. At the same time, there is a surge in violent incidents involving the killing of civilians and officials in society. Some commentators point out that as government incompetence increases, people become bolder. When there is demand for firearms, there are suppliers. Private militias and criminal activities are on the rise, signaling a breakdown in society.

Senior commentator Yan Chungou posted a commentary on Facebook on February 14th. He cited an example where a video showed Chinese farmers growing peanuts. When the peanuts were ready to be harvested for sale, the news leaked, and a large group of people, predominantly women, swarmed the area. Instead of waiting for the farmer to harvest, they took matters into their own hands, picking the peanuts before the farmer could, leaving the hardworking farmer with nothing to show for his efforts.

The author remarked that such incidents only occur in Communist China, where officials can empty the national treasury while ordinary people resort to stealing peanuts. In a society where the government lacks morality, the people also lack a sense of ethics, leading to a cascade effect.

Another example showed a video circulating online, depicting a group of bandits blocking a road and robbing passersby in the middle of the night in Yunnan’s Honghe province. The police responded to a report, and journalists accompanied them to the scene. When the police arrived, the bandits opened fire at them and managed to escape. Despite the pursuit, the police were able to capture two of the bandits on the spot.

The author believed the video depicted a real-life event. The emergence of such organized armed activities in the grassroots society signifies a dangerous trend where criminals are well-armed, posing a fundamental shift in crime from isolated incidents to organized acts of violence against authorities. This highlights a significant challenge to public order.

Yan Chungou emphasized that with widespread unemployment and dire living conditions for the underprivileged in Chinese society, desperate individuals turn to criminal activities. In the absence of effective government control, these individuals resort to robbery. If this trend continues, affluent urban residents and officials will lose their sense of security, leading to fortification with higher walls, electrified fences, and armed security guards – a hallmark of a societal breakdown.

Yan Chungou further noted that as grassroots government control in China deteriorates, local officials focus on corruption and ignore the difficulties faced by the people. With the government’s incompetence, people grow bolder. As the demand for firearms increases, suppliers emerge. Impoverished individuals form guerrilla groups, taking advantage of the situation to engage in robbery. While theft is inherently unjust, armed resistance against authorities has a certain degree of legitimacy.

He concluded by stating that the rise of private militias and bandits signifies the impending social disintegration and the erosion of governmental functionality. The escalation of organized crime from purely economic motives to political motives indicates the inevitability of the Communist Party’s disintegration.

In a previous report by “The Wall Street Journal,” it was mentioned that some advisers warned Xi Jinping of potential deflation, to which Xi responded, “What’s wrong with deflation?” Some commentators likened this statement to the aloofness of Jin Huai Emperor. This incident raised concerns over Xi’s standing among party officials, as those who relay such messages are likely from the top echelons of the party, indicating potential disloyalty among his inner circle.

Yan Chungou suggested that the disintegration of the bureaucratic system within the Communist Party has led to the moral degradation of society at large. A lack of ethical norms and widespread corruption have made the regime vulnerable. The longevity of such a regime, given its current state, remains uncertain. The year 2025 is expected to bring about significant events.

Current affairs commentator Li Linyi emphasized that genuine anti-Communist activists should uphold moral principles and avoid resorting to criminal activities. Their resistance should focus on addressing the injustices perpetrated by the Communist regime without engaging in criminal behavior.

Regarding the arming of civilians in China, official statements have once acknowledged such activities. In a press conference last November 14th, officials from China’s Ministry of Public Security warned against illegal dissemination of firearm production techniques, trade of gun parts, and explosive materials. Those found in violation would face criminal charges.

Commentator Du Zheng previously argued in a Taiwanese media article that the targets of such crackdowns may not necessarily be criminals causing harm to innocent individuals. Rather, they could be individuals intending to engage in armed uprisings against the regime.

News of these incidents circulated on various social media platforms, prompting intense discussions among netizens. Some questioned the authorities’ fear and ignited discussions hinting at potential violent attacks against the Communist government. Individuals expressed a keen interest in weapon production and procurement, demonstrating a shift towards a more confrontational stance against the regime.

Despite the government’s efforts to maintain stability and control information, reports of civil unrest continue to emerge. In late 2023, a 14-year-old middle school student in Ningling County, Henan province, was found dead with signs of physical assault. Officials claimed it was a suicide, sparking large-scale protests. Early in 2024, in Anlong County, Guizhou Province, clashes between Miao villagers and law enforcement occurred over forced land acquisitions by local government authorities.

In November last year, a confrontation broke out in Qinnan District of Qinzhou, Guangxi, between villagers and the police and special forces. Villagers protested against the authorities’ land grab and forced construction, leading to a violent clash.

In January this year, during Xi Jinping’s visit to Liaoning in northeast China, an explosion occurred in a shopping mall shortly after his departure, undermining the narrative of Xi being widely adored by the populace. Analysts have suggested that the extensive security measures employed during Xi’s visits indicate his extreme sensitivity or fear towards security threats, turning routine inspections into quasi-military operations.

Yuan Hongbing, a scholar residing in Australia, revealed insights from insiders, suggesting that from 2024 onwards, China’s social crisis is evolving into a political crisis. A directive issued by Xi Jinping in early 2025 emphasized cracking down on major political cases as a top priority for law enforcement. Calls for armed overthrow of Xi’s dictatorship surfaced in leaflets distributed on college campuses in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, and Guangzhou around New Year’s Day 2025. The leaflets were signed by the “Chinese Democratic Revolutionary Party.”

This piece, widely circulated on social media, ignited a flurry of online activity with netizens questioning the authorities’ motives and engaging in dialogue about launching attacks against the Communist regime. Discussions ranged from the potency of firearms to historical examples of resistance against authorities.

The establishment of the Central Social Work Department for Strengthening Stability by the Chinese Communist Party in 2023, aiming to enhance stability nationwide, and the subsequent nationwide crackdown in 2024 targeting individuals facing economic difficulties following multiple indiscriminate attacks, have further exacerbated tensions in the country.

Despite the government’s stringent security measures and information control, incidents of public unrest continue to be reported. These events underscore a growing unease and discontent within Chinese society. With ongoing socio-political crises and widespread economic hardships, the stability of the regime remains uncertain. The year 2025 is poised to bring about significant developments.