Analysis: The launch of low-orbit satellite by the Chinese Communist Party is unable to challenge “Starlink”.

Recently, the China Wenchang Space Launch Center launched the Long March 8 modified carrier rocket, sending a low-orbit satellite into space. In recent years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has accelerated the construction of a large-scale constellation network in medium and low earth orbit, aiming to establish its own star chain to compete and play games with the United States in space. Experts point out that the CCP’s star chain plan aims to control information, but its technology and speed are far behind the United States.

On February 11, the China Wenchang Space Launch Center used the Long March 8 modified carrier rocket to launch the Low Earth Orbit 02 Satellite Internet constellation satellites into space, entering the designated orbit.

The Long March 8 modified carrier rocket is an upgraded version of the Long March 8. Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Security Research Institute, told Dajiyuan that the Long March series of rockets can launch up to 18 satellites at once. SpaceX in the United States uses the Falcon 9 rocket to launch low-orbit satellites into low Earth synchronous orbit, with a capacity of 20 to 30 satellites per launch, already deploying over 7,000 low-orbit satellites. The United States’ private space rocket launches and satellite development are more advanced than China’s.

Former Deputy Commander of the Taiwan Air Force, General Zhang Yanting, stated to Dajiyuan that China’s launch of these satellites is to catch up with the United States’ Starlink and create its own star chain.

In 2024, SpaceX’s Starship rocket made significant advances in launch costs reduction. The cost of other countries’ rocket launches ranges from $5,000 to $10,000 per kilogram, whereas Starship’s space launch cost can be reduced to around $10 per kilogram if put into use, giving it a significant commercial competitive advantage.

In terms of launch frequency, China launched satellites 68 times in 2024 (two of which failed), far below the expected 100 times. Starlink in the United States set a new record in launch frequency last year, completing 134 Falcon series rocket launches.

The CCP’s restructuring of carrier rockets is believed to be aiming to deploy more satellites in space at a faster pace to compete with the United States’ Starlink. However, the CCP’s star chain plan is seen as closely imitating the American Starlink.

Elon Musk’s Starlink technology and engineering are not only targeted for China’s deployment of low-orbit satellites but also pose as its most powerful competitor. The CCP is engaged in fierce competition with the United States in outer space.

The so-called low-orbit satellite refers to satellites operating in orbits ranging from about 160 to 2,000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. Due to their lower orbit height, these satellites have features such as low transmission delay and low link loss, making them suitable for developing satellite Internet business.

Shen Mingshi noted that since SpaceX launched the Starlink project in 2014, the world industry has realized the importance of competing for low-orbit satellite resources. Satellite constellations are undoubtedly today’s most popular projects, and the CCP wants to seize the opportunity.

According to Shen Mingshi, the Starlink project aims to launch 42,000 satellites. As of July 28, 2024, SpaceX has launched a total of 185 batches and 6,805 satellites, with the launch frequency and quantity accelerating. In terms of commercial operation, Starlink services have covered 99 countries, with over 3 million users.

Recently, the connection of Apple phones to Starlink’s Internet has become a hot topic, seen as bringing disruptive changes. Even without a satellite receiver, Apple phones can connect to the network directly via Starlink, enabling continued network usage even when local terrestrial, submarine cables, or airborne networks are disrupted.

The network system formed by low-orbit satellites integrates features such as low-orbit broadband, direct connection to mobile phones, and VDES (Very High Frequency Data Exchange System), offering low-latency, high-speed, and highly reliable satellite broadband Internet services to the world.

Shen Mingshi stated, “In China, the network is under CCP control, but once there is Starlink, Apple phones can connect to the network, bypassing CCP’s network communication restrictions, allowing information to flow more freely. This is the greatest fear of authoritarian governments controlling network information.”

Guo Jun, chief editor of Chinese Epoch Times, said in the “Elite Forum” that the technology for satellites to connect directly to phones should be realized within the next 2 to 5 years, and it will be partially popularized. Currently, the satellites that connect to mobile phones are mainly low-earth orbit satellites, with around 9,000 of them, of which over 6,000 were launched by SpaceX, showing remarkable development speed. If smartphones connecting to satellites become widespread, the CCP’s network firewall would become ineffective.

China has approximately 240 million Apple phone users. Independent TV producer Li Jun believes that the CCP would never allow Apple phones to directly connect to Starlink. Currently, the CCP is also responding by wanting to build its own satellite system called “National Network,” but its development is slow.

Guo Jun mentioned that after the CCP establishes its low-orbit satellites, it will allow Chinese phones to connect to its satellites. This way, it can add a firewall to control information flow.

In order to occupy a strategic position in space, the CCP has tasked the central, local, and private enterprises to jointly construct communication networks, striving to counter SpaceX.

Some of the CCP’s enterprises have been researching and imitating American Starlink technology for launch. The main ones include: China Satellite Network Group’s “National Network” (GW), planning to launch 13,000 satellites; Shanghai Hengxin Satellite Technology Company’s “Qianfan Constellation (G60),” planning to launch 15,000 satellites; Beijing LandSpace Technology’s “Honghu 3,” planning to launch 10,000 satellites.

The CCP plans to launch at least 50,000 low-orbit satellites, hoping to become a competitive “space power” with the United States by around 2030. China’s own version of GPS, “Beidou,” completed in 2020, aims to be updated by 2035. China’s space development is believed to be closely related to the military, with a CEO of a star chain company coming from a military enterprise background.

The international community, including Europe and the United States, perceives the CCP’s challenges in space as a significant crisis. The German government has previously prevented related Shanghai companies from expanding investments in a Berlin-based satellite communication startup.

Voice of America recently reported that Musk’s Starlink company is currently in a competition with China’s Shanghai Hengxin Satellite Technology Company for landing rights to provide satellite Internet services in Pakistan. This competition is not only crucial for Pakistan in choosing technology but also reflects the strategic competition between the United States and China in the space sector.

Pakistan has 111 million Internet users, with an Internet penetration rate of 45.7%. This is undeniably an attractive future market. However, due to geopolitical reasons, Starlink’s permit application in Pakistan has been continuously delayed.

The competition between China and the United States in space goes beyond technical and commercial aspects such as satellite coverage and practical application; the CCP is exploring strategies and tactics to directly attack Starlink.

The U.S. Department of Defense warned as early as 2021 that China’s offensive space technology is advancing, making significant long-term investments in weapons for interfering with, destroying satellites, and developing anti-satellite weapons with interference, ground kinetic kill, and space kinetic kill capabilities. U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Michael Studeman stated that in the near future, the US and China will engage in a game of moves, countermeasures, and opposition.

Regarding the situation and future trends of the US-China competition in space, Shen Mingshi believes that “if the United States can seize the deployment and utilization of low-orbit satellites, it will dominate the deployment and use of low-orbit satellite airspace, providing a strategic advantage in future communication technology development or battlefield command and control communication usage.”

He emphasized that China lags far behind the United States in rocket and satellite design technology and may even fall short in satellite surveillance, communications, and telemetry compared to SpaceX. “In the competition in low-earth orbit, the United States surpasses China significantly.”