As the military registration season approaches, in recent days the official Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda has been promoting mandatory registration, claiming that 18-year-olds must complete “military registration” or face “serious consequences,” sparking speculation among the public. Experts analyze that this move might not necessarily be for wartime purposes, but rather due to the social risks they may face, fearing potential large-scale social unrest and making preparations for stability control.
The military registration for the year 2025 will begin on January 1, 2025. According to the regulations of the CCP’s “Military Service Law,” male citizens who turn 18 before December 31 of that year are required to fulfill their obligation to register for military service in accordance with the law.
It is worth noting that the previous “should register” has now turned into “must register for military service upon turning 18 for males.” The “Chinese Military” has released a short video expanding on “18-year-olds, the country is calling you to register,” and official Chinese media like the Retired Soldiers Affairs Department Propaganda Center’s official Weibo have directly stated in videos that “if you are 18 years old (male), whether or not you want to join the military, you must complete military registration; otherwise, it will affect your ability to enter universities, find jobs, and the consequences will be very serious!”
Investigations by journalists revealed that many local governments have clearly stated in their “Announcements on Carrying Out Military Registration Work” that for behaviors like “failure to fulfill national defense obligations, refusal to participate in or evasion of military service,” joint disciplinary actions will be taken. Those who refuse to comply may face serious legal consequences such as being disqualified from civil service positions, jobs in state-owned enterprises, not being allowed to travel abroad, unable to obtain graduation certificates, unable to apply for university admission or enrollment procedures, unable to obtain identification cards, residence permits, driver’s licenses, bank loans, purchase plane or high-speed train tickets, or enjoy social security benefits, along with having their refusal to register for military service recorded as a violation in their personal files.
Internet users have questioned, “Why are so many conditions attached to what should be an honorable thing?” “With such low birth rates now, will conscription become compulsory in the future?” “This reveals some information, can anyone guess why this is being done?”
Some netizens pointed out that one must pay someone to serve in the military. “When I was a freshman, I was responsible for registration in the class. After registration, it was over. If you want to join the army, others might not necessarily want you.” “It used to be encouraging, now it is compulsory, and the decline in the population dividend is severe.”
Retired Air Force veteran Zhang Helie, in an interview with Dajiyuan, expressed that the CCP is likely creating a sense of tension to further control the people and close off China, manufacturing a sense of crisis. If a war were to break out, China’s aircraft and weapons are outdated, and if they resort to launching a massive land war, the consequences would be dire.
“Now with internal and external troubles, the entire country is being pushed into the depths of hell. People all over China are filled with anger, including military officers in the army who are also bored and anxious, wanting to live a normal life or retire somewhere. Going from good times to tough times, young people may not be able to endure it.”
In the official announcement video, there is a particular emphasis on compulsory military registration for young men. Zhang Helie stated that female soldiers in China serve for privileges. In the past, there were not many who could become female soldiers without a certain family status. It has not been easy to be a female soldier in recent years.
In comparison, male soldiers in northern Anhui and northern China, in some poor areas, serving in the military is an outlet. In the southern provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, affluent individuals do not like to join the military. “Generally, children from better-off families do not want to join the military, but ordinary people’s children need a way to make a living.”
“Fields of dead bodies are full of sons and daughters of farmers,” Zhang Helie said, referring to the tragic incident in April 2019 during the Liangshan wildfire where over thirty firefighters lost their lives. He received admonishment from the police for quoting Mo Yan’s words and commenting that the fire was caused by human negligence, not a natural disaster.
Zhang Helie cautioned the youth of China, “In life, some sacrifices are worth it, and some are not. If you invade others, that is definitely not worth it, as you are just being used as cannon fodder for the dictator. If the CCP attacks Taiwan, many of my friends around me would definitely go to support Taiwan. It is worth sacrificing for your beliefs.”
“Young people, 18 or 19-year-old children, do not have their own thoughts or direction; in the military, they are completely brainwashed. Military personnel see obeying orders as their duty, and that’s how the CCP propagates. Young people in our generation had never seen the outside world; whatever was dictated from above was considered correct, lacking the ability to make their own judgments. It’s the same now; during stability maintenance, when those evil police officers start getting violent against the people, why are they so ruthless? They are being used as tools by the devil.”
Political commentator Lan Shu, in an interview with Dajiyuan, analyzed that the current demands for conscription are becoming more stringent, and the consequences of not volunteering are becoming more severe, which is inevitable. With the downturn of the Chinese economy, the CCP faces conflicts and pressures from various levels of society, with more opinions emerging within the government, party, and military. In such circumstances, the military must firmly remain in the CCP’s control because the CCP will have to rely on force to control the entire Chinese society.
“If Xi Jinping’s leftward turn in ideology continues, the only possible outcome will be military rule. However, military rule must be enacted when the country is in a state of emergency, like launching a war in the Taiwan Strait, bringing about confrontation with the West, using this as an excuse to implement military rule across the country or at least in coastal provinces.”
“Once military rule is in place, the military must rapidly expand, and the number of personnel within the entire military will inevitably increase rapidly. The current reconstruction of the supply and marketing cooperative system, the establishment of armed department control over grassroots militias and reservists, etc., are all preparations for the CCP’s future military rule over the entire China.”
However, Lan Shu believes that attacking Taiwan poses too much risk for Xi Jinping and the CCP, so instead the CCP might provoke conflict in the Taiwan Strait, launching landing attacks on several islands near the Chinese coastline, such as Kinmen and Matsu. For example, if they take control of Kinmen, the current leadership can claim they have completed a task that the past four CCP leaders failed to accomplish.
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan, also interviewed by Dajiyuan, stated that the military registration imposed by the CCP has now become mandatory, with a heightened sense of urgency. This approach may not necessarily be solely for preparing for warfare but could be in anticipation of large-scale social unrest in the future or potential regime crises as a measure for stability and reserve. It bears some resemblance to a census, surveying appropriate age groups for military service, serving dual purposes.
One aspect is external. “Just as the CCP itself stated, ‘we are in a period of great changes for a century’, in the future, if certain extreme circumstances were to occur, and if the entire regime became involved in a war or a massive conflict, then in terms of conscription, they would need a population database and understanding of the situation.”
The other aspect is internal. “If Chinese society experiences widespread internal chaos or severe turmoil, the country may implement a certain degree of military control nationwide, requiring more military personnel or quasi-military personnel that can serve a stabilizing role.”