Four years later, former President Trump has won a second term as President of the United States. Under the blueprint of “America First,” what will his policy towards China look like?
Trump had hinted that he would not send troops to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack, yet he chose to support Taiwan by nominating Rubio as Secretary of State. Despite expressing a dislike for deploying troops in overseas wars, he pledged to increase military funding to build a strong army. Will Trump be a lucky star for China or its terminator? It’s hard to predict.
Experts point out that Trump’s unpredictable and unique diplomatic style may lead to a decisive advantage for the United States in its competition with China.
China closely watches Trump’s post-election policy towards China. It is reported that China has inquired with Washington insiders about Trump’s diplomatic inclinations, especially regarding his stance on Taiwan, relationships with leaders of Japan and South Korea, and strategies in the Indo-Pacific region.
China hopes the new U.S. government will ease its pressure. On November 16th, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, during a meeting with U.S. President Biden in Peru, expressed willingness to “maintain communication, expand cooperation, manage differences” with the new U.S. government and proposed four red lines, with Taiwan being the first. However, China is secretly frustrated by Trump’s nomination of his top diplomat.
On November 14th, President-elect Trump nominated hardliner Marco Rubio as Secretary of State for China. Rubio, a senior senator who has served on the U.S. Senate Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committees, is considered a hawk on China. He views China’s economic rise as a “real threat” to the U.S. and advocates strong containment measures.
Rubio is a staunch defender of human rights in Hong Kong. In 2019, he initiated the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.”
Rubio is also a strong supporter of Taiwan. In response to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s threats to annex Taiwan in 2019, Rubio tweeted in support of Taiwan as an “independent democratic country and a strong ally of the U.S.” He emphasized the need for the U.S. to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan in the face of China’s aggressive actions.
Rubio has proposed legislation to support Taiwan, including the “Strengthening Taiwan Relations Act,” the “Taiwan Peace Through Strength Act,” and a resolution commemorating the 45th anniversary of the “Taiwan Relations Act.” The “Taiwan Relations Strengthening Act” will enhance and deepen U.S.-Taiwan relations, such as elevating the U.S. Representative office in Taiwan to a Senate-confirmed position.
Trump’s nomination of Rubio as Secretary of State has surprised many, as he had previously hinted that he was unwilling to send troops to aid Taiwan if it was attacked by China.
In October, Trump told the Wall Street Journal, “I would say: If you (China) invade Taiwan, I’m sorry about this, but I will tax you… 150% to 200%.” When asked if he would use military force, Trump said, “I don’t need to do that because (Xi Jinping) respects me, and he knows I’m crazy.”
In July, during an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump said, “Taiwan should pay us protection money.” “You know, we’re no different from an insurance company.”
These statements by Trump have pleased China. On October 30th, Chinese officials mocked the people of Taiwan, saying they should not expect help from the U.S. Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated, “Whether the U.S. wants to protect or harm Taiwan, I believe that most Taiwanese have made a rational judgment and are very clear that the U.S.’s pursuit is always ‘America First.'”
However, Trump’s appointment of top diplomats is likened to a slap in the face for China.
In July, during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Rubio spoke to reporters about Trump’s Taiwan policy, saying, “He will do what he did in his first term, which is… continue to support Taiwan.”
Since Trump’s election as the 45th President in November 2016, U.S.-Taiwan relations have significantly improved symbolically and substantively. After a phone call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan increased significantly – from $14 billion during the eight years of the Obama administration to $18 billion in just four years. Health Secretary Alex Azar visited Taiwan in 2020. The Taiwan Travel Act passed in 2018 allowed for higher-level exchanges, further consolidating U.S.-Taiwan relations.
The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s tone towards Taiwan. In 2022, then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. She became the second federal Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan since the U.S. severed ties with the Republic of China in 1979, and the first Speaker of the House from the ruling party to visit Taiwan.
Rubio stated, “While I cannot speak for Trump, I have no doubt that the United States will support Taiwan and do everything possible to prevent China from invading.”
One feature of Trump’s foreign policy is “isolationism,” manifested by withdrawing from various international organizations and agreements. Last year, Trump stated that if he won the election, he would abolish the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 13 other countries, many of which are in Asia.
U.S. shrinking on the international stage may push allies towards China. However, Trump’s isolationism does not equate to decline. Trump’s blueprint of “Making America Great Again” includes making the military great again.
In August, Trump outlined his plan to rebuild the military and restore world peace at a rally in North Carolina. “It’s time to build a 21st-century arsenal.” Trump addressed a crowd at a packed Madison Square Garden last month, saying, “We will strengthen the military and modernize it.”
The 2024 Republican Party platform promises that the GOP “will ensure that our military is the most modern, lethal, and powerful force in the world.” The platform states, “We will invest in cutting-edge research and advanced technologies, including the Iron Dome missile defense system, support our military with higher pay, and expeditiously discharge those belonging to the (culture of) woke (left-wing) Democrats.”
Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense is another China hawk.
On November 12th, Trump announced that Pete Hegseth, a retired military veteran and Fox News host who has emphasized China as the biggest threat, would serve as Secretary of Defense.
Hegseth, when discussing the threat of China on Fox News, said, “What’s scary is, we have a terrible record in our Pentagon war-gaming over the last 10 to 15 years against China, we have failed every time because China is building a force to defeat the American military.”
Hegseth stated that China’s ambitions go beyond Asia and encompass a comprehensive, long-term plan for global domination.
According to an article by Richard McGregor, a senior researcher at the Lowy Institute in Australia, scholars in Australia, the U.S., and Europe have a view that “China is hoping for Trump’s victory” because “Trump’s victory represents the decline, collapse, and chaos of the world’s most powerful democratic nation.”
However, some scholars point out that Trump’s unique diplomatic style may decisively win the competition with China once and for all.
Craig Singleton, a China analyst and senior researcher at the Washington-based Democracy Fund, wrote that Trump’s first term marked a historic shift in U.S. policy towards China. His blend of economic pressure, unpredictability, sanctions, and tariffs caused chaos in Beijing.
The article notes that this is a turning point in U.S.-China relations: Washington has shifted from passively accepting China’s revisionist ambitions to staunch opposition. The Biden administration has continued this strategy. Trump’s second term may help the U.S. definitively win this strategic competition.
The article states that while Biden also pressures Beijing, his emphasis on easing tensions and avoiding escalation provides Chinese leaders with the predictability needed to address domestic challenges and achieve their techno…