Hello everyone, I’m Tang Hao, how are you all today?
Today’s Focus: Trump Reveals Seven Sins of Beijing, Will Return to the White House to End the CCP? Taiwan’s $48 Billion Military Purchase, a Strategic Move in Cross-Strait Relations? Convincing Trump to Support Taiwan, Three Clever Moves?
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After Trump’s resounding victory in the US election, the world is closely watching the future of US-China-Taiwan relations. The UK’s Financial Times first reported that Taiwan has been in contact with the Trump administration, proposing a $15 billion military procurement deal, sparking intense debate. How much impact will this military procurement deal have on Taiwan’s efforts to garner Trump’s support? What other clever moves can Taiwan make to strengthen Trump’s resolve to protect Taiwan? Furthermore, why would Trump, upon returning to the White House, not “sell out Taiwan,” but rather potentially join forces with Taiwan to end the CCP regime? In this episode, we will discuss these matters with you.
In the previous week’s US election, Trump won overwhelmingly and is set to return to the White House in January next year. Now, governments worldwide are actively preparing for the arrival of “Trump 2.0” The real focus will be on how the trilateral relations between the US, China, and Taiwan will change after Trump’s return. Will the US be willing to assist Taiwan in resisting CCP aggression? Before Trump provides clear answers, Taiwan has taken proactive steps.
The Financial Times revealed that Taiwan has been in contact with the Trump administration, preparing a $15 billion military procurement deal, equivalent to over $48 billion New Taiwan dollars. Taiwan hopes to purchase a batch of advanced weaponry, including 60 F-35 fighter jets, 4 E2-D Hawkeye aircraft, 10 retired US warships, and 400 Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, among other items.
After this news came to light, the response from the Presidential Office was very subtle, neither confirming nor denying the information, only stating that “there is currently no discussion of a new phase.” In plain terms, this means that the matter is indeed ongoing, but details remain unclear.
Regardless of whether this military procurement deal materializes, I believe that Taiwan has played this move very well. It is an important step for Taiwan as it transitions from the “Biden era” to the “Trump 2.0 era.” Why is that?
Firstly, Taiwan has clearly responded to Trump’s request for Taiwan to pay “protection fees” or “insurance fees,” indicating to Trump that they take his words seriously. Taiwan also hopes to continue standing shoulder to shoulder with the US to resist CCP’s military expansion in the Western Pacific. In simple terms, this is a plea for a “security alliance.”
Secondly, as everyone knows, Trump places great importance on fair trade relations with other countries. In the past, China’s significant trade surplus with the US led Trump to initiate the trade war. Taiwan, however, had a trade surplus with the US reaching $35.6 billion from January to August this year, an all-time high. Will Taiwan become a major focus for Trump after taking office? Certainly.
Therefore, Taiwan’s proactive offer of a $15 billion military purchase is also a “coronation gift” for the incoming Trump administration. This deal not only secures a substantial order for the US, boosting GDP and creating job opportunities but also helps reduce some trade deficits. In essence, this order not only brings economic benefits to the US but also gives face to Trump while providing Taiwan with advanced weaponry that was previously unavailable — a mutual benefit, A “shared interests alliance.”
Another crucial point is that Taiwan’s proactive spending on advanced weaponry indicates to Trump Taiwan’s firm determination to resist the CCP’s aggression and showcases Taiwan’s commitment to strengthening its defense through its efforts and investments rather than relying solely on the largesse of the US or Europe, as seen in the case of Ukraine.
This is significant because if you understand Trump, you’ll know that he highly values two traditional values in American society: courage to take risks and self-reliance. Therefore, Taiwan’s proactive military procurement indicates to Trump that Taiwan is willing to take risks and be self-reliant, rather than waiting for American handouts. Additionally, Trump is known for his strong personality in the business world, and he admires tough individuals.
Since assuming office, Taiwan’s President has not only shown no fear of CCP pressure but has openly questioned and challenged the CCP multiple times, leaving the CCP speechless. Now, Taiwan has proactively proposed a $15 billion military purchase to the US. In Trump’s view, these actions indicate that the Taiwan government indeed shares many values with him and is tough. This forms a “values alliance.”
Therefore, I believe that Taiwan’s military procurement deal is a strategic move because it conveys to the US a plea for “security alliance,” “shared interests alliance,” and “values alliance,” all before Trump further escalates pressure. This initiative will likely leave Trump with a more positive impression of Taiwan, facilitating continued friendly relations between the US and Taiwan.
However, if Taiwan wishes to further establish good relations with the Trump administration, I have some supplementary suggestions:
Firstly, invite Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump to visit Taiwan. Let her observe the real situation in Taiwan, from government to businesses to the grassroots level. This will allow her to see that Taiwan not only shares American-style constitutional democracy and capitalism but also preserves many traditional values and culture that align closely with what Trump desires. This will provide Ivanka with first-hand information and insights to share with Trump.
Secondly, over the years, the majority of Taiwan’s media have been influenced by American leftist media, resulting in mostly negative and biased reporting about Trump. These reports can influence Trump’s officials’ perceptions of Taiwan, even leading them to suspect Taiwan’s connection with American leftists. In particular, certain media groups in the US press have consistently criticized Trump before the election. Taiwan’s government may need to clarify such negative reports with the Trump camp to dispel any misunderstandings.
Thirdly, let’s not forget the words of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: “What happens to Taiwan and Japan is of concern to the US, which is equivalent to the US-Japan alliance being at stake.” Abe had a close relationship with Trump and provided strategic advice on international relations. For example, the well-known US-Japan-India-Australia “Quad” dialogue was proposed by Abe, agreed upon by Trump, and later established.
Abe placed great importance on Taiwan’s security during his time in office because if Taiwan fell to the CCP, Japan would likely be the next victim. The entire Pacific and even the US mainland would fall under the threat of the CCP. Therefore, Taiwan can benevolently remind Trump that Abe advocated Taiwan’s presence on the frontline of the first island chain, working together with the US and Japan to resist CCP expansion and safeguard the territorial security of the US, Japan, and Taiwan.
Now, looking at how US-China-Taiwan relations will evolve after Trump’s return to office, the official Chinese Communist Party stance and certain Taiwanese media personalities claim Trump is an opportunistic businessman willing to trade anything. They believe that as long as a deal with Beijing is reached, Trump would sell out Taiwan.
I can only say that this viewpoint is a misunderstanding or partial understanding of Trump. While Trump is a businessman adept at negotiation and deal-making, he prioritizes American interests above all else. If Taiwan were to fall to the CCP, not only would Japan suffer, but the US would as well. Therefore, I firmly believe that Trump will endeavor to protect Taiwan. The reasons for my belief have been discussed in previous episodes, which you are welcome to review.
Moreover, upon returning to the White House, I believe Trump will not only prioritize “America First” and safeguard Taiwan but also is likely to embark on a “revenge campaign” against the CCP, aiming to defeat them. Why? Several reasons:
Firstly, Trump’s first term demonstrated outstanding economic performance until the final year when it faltered due to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Where did the pandemic originate? China. Who concealed the truth about the outbreak? The CCP. Therefore, a primary reason for Trump’s failure to secure reelection was the CCP’s concealment of the outbreak. This lesson would undoubtedly lead Trump to adopt a more robust approach towards the CCP.
Secondly, Trump has always been staunchly against communism and socialism from a young age until now. His early works “Time to Get Tough” and “Great Again,” along with his UN General Assembly speeches, consistently denounce these ideologies for the disasters they bring to humankind. The excerpt from Trump’s UN speech in 2017 closely resembles criticism of Beijing’s leadership, doesn’t it?
Additionally, who disappointed Trump the most during his first term? Xi Jinping. Trump hosted Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in 2017 and praised him continuously during the lengthy four-hour meeting. However, he remained critical of communism and socialism, which seems contradictory, considering Xi is the leader of the Communist Party.
Yes, it is indeed contradictory, but a plausible explanation is that Xi Jinping might have shared some insights with Trump, leading Trump to believe that Xi sought to reform the CCP system. Trump aimed to support him, hence the praise. While simultaneously attacking communism, hoping to advance China’s “peaceful transformation” from within the CCP. This strategy was later used on Kim Jong-un, but Kim lacked the courage needed at the time.
In the end, Xi left Trump extremely disappointed; before leaving office, Trump mentioned how he and Xi had a good rapport, which had deteriorated since Xi deceived him on many issues. Therefore, Trump’s comeback will surely involve employing more and tougher strategies to confront the CCP.
Furthermore, during Trump’s absence over the past four years, the national security threat posed by the CCP to the US escalated continuously, leading Trump to be increasingly wary.
For instance, the CCP detained numerous Americans under the guise of espionage, hoping to exert pressure on the US in negotiations. The CCP also operated secret “overseas police stations” in New York, infiltrating activities to subvert the US. They dispatched numerous spies to military bases across the US to gather classified intelligence. And who could forget the CCP’s spy balloons flying over mainland US territory? Consider if you were Trump, how would you respond?
Lastly, the CCP is challenging the US, seeking to overturn the existing international order and establish a “community of shared future for mankind” with itself at the center. This aim is unacceptable to Trump.
While Trump emphasizes “America First” and prioritizes American interests, the CCP seeks global dominance. They represent the most significant challenge and the most direct threat to US national interests and security. In other words, the CCP’s “community of shared future for mankind” is a scheme to “topple the US, making the CCP supreme.” For Trump’s vision of “America First” or “Making America Great Again” to materialize, the US must remain dominant. After all, how can you be considered “great” if you have a contender who can defeat you at any moment?
Therefore, after Trump’s return, the US and China are bound to engage in more intense confrontations and competitions as China aims for global dominance. The CCP is the stumbling block for the US, while the US is the obstacle to the CCP’s supremacy. At the UN General Assembly in 2019, Trump openly listed the seven significant mistakes of the CCP that have damaged US interests.
Consequently, I believe that after Trump’s return, he will not only safeguard Taiwan but will ramp up pressure on the CCP, possibly through widespread economic and technological sanctions or blockades to severely constrain the CCP, leading to internal instability and dissolution from within. After all, the Chinese Communist Party is the world’s largest cancer, the fundamental root cause behind Russia, Iran, and North Korea — only by dismantling the CCP can all threats against the US be neutralized and the world and US made safe again.
That’s it for today. Thank you for watching, and we’ll see you next time.